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Structural breaks in volatility spillovers between international financial markets: Contagion or mere interdependence?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 47, 331-342
This paper conducts an investigation of volatility transmission between stock markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the United States covering the time period from 2000 up to 2011. Using intra-daily data we compute realized volatility time series for the three markets and employ a Heterogeneous Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model as our baseline econometric specification. Motivated by the presence of various crisis events contained in our sample, we detect time-variation and structural breaks in volatility spillovers. Particularly during the financial crisis of 2007, we find effects consistent with the notion of contagion, suggesting strong and sudden increases in the cross-market synchronization of chronologically succeeding volatilities. Investigating the role of mean breaks and conditional heteroskedasticity in the realized volatilities, however, we find the latter to be the main driver of breaks in volatility spillovers. Taking the volatility of realized volatilities into account, we find no evidence of contagion anymore.

The q-theory explanation for the external financing effect: New evidence

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 49, 69-81
Several studies document a robust negative association between net external financing and average stock returns, which is referred to as the external financing effect. Using total asset growth as a comprehensive measure of overall corporate investment and total profitability gross of R&D expenditures as a measure of true economic profitability, we provide new evidence in support of the q-theory explanation for the external financing effect. We also test the market timing explanation for the external financing effect but fail to document supportive evidence.

SOX, corporate transparency, and the cost of debt

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 38, 145-165
We investigate the impact of the Sarbanes–Oxley (SOX) Act on the cost of debt through its effect on the reliability of financial reporting. Using Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads and a structural CDS pricing model, we calibrate a firm-level corporate opacity parameter in the pre- and post-SOX periods. Our analysis shows that corporate opacity and the cost of debt decrease significantly after SOX. The median firm in our sample experiences an 18bp reduction on its five-year CDS spread as a result of lower opacity following SOX, amounting to total annual savings of $ 844million for the 252 firms in our sample. Furthermore, the reduction in opacity tends to be larger for firms that in the pre-SOX period have lower accrual quality, less conservative earnings, lower number of independent directors, lower S& P Transparency and Disclosure ratings, and are more likely to benefit from SOX-compliance according to Chhaochharia and Grinstein’s (2007) criteria.

Short-selling, margin-trading, and price efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 48, 411-424 open access
China launched a pilot scheme in March 2010 to lift the ban on short-selling and margin-trading for stocks on a designated list. We find that stocks experience negative returns when added to the list. After the ban is lifted, price efficiency increases while stock return volatility decreases. Panel data regressions reveal that intensified short-selling activities are associated with improved price efficiency. Short-sellers trade to eliminate overpricing by selling stocks with higher contemporaneous returns following a downward trend, and their trades predict future returns. In contrast, we find intensified margin-trading activities for stocks with lower contemporaneous returns, and these trades have no return predictive power.

Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 40, 1-10 open access
This paper performs a thorough statistical examination of the time-series properties of the daily market volatility index (VIX) from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). The motivation lies not only on the widespread consensus that the VIX is a barometer of the overall market sentiment as to what concerns investors’ risk appetite, but also on the fact that there are many trading strategies that rely on the VIX index for hedging and speculative purposes. Preliminary analysis suggests that the VIX index displays long-range dependence. This is well in line with the strong empirical evidence in the literature supporting long memory in both options-implied and realized variances. We thus resort to both parametric and semiparametric heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) processes for modeling and forecasting purposes. Our main findings are as follows. First, we confirm the evidence in the literature that there is a negative relationship between the VIX index and the S&P 500 index return as well as a positive contemporaneous link with the volume of the S&P 500 index. Second, the term spread has a slightly negative long-run impact in the VIX index, when possible multicollinearity and endogeneity are controlled for. Finally, we cannot reject the linearity of the above relationships, neither in sample nor out of sample. As for the latter, we actually show that it is pretty hard to beat the pure HAR process because of the very persistent nature of the VIX index.

Firm cash holdings and CEO inside debt

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 42, 83-100
We examine the effect of CEO pensions and deferred compensation (inside debt) on firm cash holdings and the value of cash. We document a positive relation between CEO inside debt and firm cash holdings. This positive effect is magnified by firm leverage and mitigated by the presence of financial constraints. We further find that the marginal value of cash to shareholders declines as CEO inside debt increases. Our evidence supports the view that inside debt tilts managerial incentives toward bondholders and helps balance the competing interests of stockholders and bondholders. The evidence also suggests, however, that inside debt can harm shareholder value by encouraging excess cash holdings.

Do regulatory changes affect the underpricing of European IPOs?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 45, 43-58 open access
We use a sample of 3677 European IPOs during the period 1998–2012 to examine how the adoptions of corporate governance codes by Member States of the European Union (EU) have affected IPO underpricing on Member State-regulated markets, where issuers are subject to corporate governance rules instituted by Member States, relative to a control sample of IPOs on exchange-regulated markets, where issuers are exempt from Member State corporate governance codes. Using this control sample approach facilitated by the existence of second-tier, exchange-regulated markets in the EU, we find that, on average, IPO underpricing declined on Member State-regulated markets after Member States adopted corporate governance codes containing SOX-like provisions. We do not find a similar reduction in IPO underpricing on exchange-regulated markets. Our results are robust to alternative specifications, and our findings support the view that elevating corporate governance standards increases transparency and reduces information asymmetries that affect IPO valuations.