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An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective

Journal of Banking & Finance 2000 24(10), 1651-1679
We examine the investment behavior of market participants within different international markets (i.e., US, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan), specifically with regard to their tendency to exhibit herd behavior. We find no evidence of herding on the part of market participants in the US and Hong Kong and partial evidence of herding in Japan. However, for South Korea and Taiwan, the two emerging markets in our sample, we document significant evidence of herding. The results are robust across various size-based portfolios and over time. Furthermore, macroeconomic information rather than firm-specific information tends to have a more significant impact on investor behavior in markets which exhibit herding. In all five markets, the rate of increase in security return dispersion as a function of the aggregate market return is higher in up market, relative to down market days. This is consistent with the directional asymmetry documented by McQueen et al. (1996) (McQueen, G., Pinegar, M.A., Thorley, S., 1996. Journal of Finance 51, 889–919).

US day-of-the-week effects and asymmetric responses to macroeconomic news

Journal of Banking & Finance 1998 22(5), 513-534
This study considers the joint influence of contemporaneous and lagged responses to macroeconomic news in explaining US day-of-the-week effects. Macroeconomic news is measured by movements in large firms' stock prices. The average response of smaller stocks to these movements is abnormally high on Mondays, especially in down markets. After corrections for these asymmetries, the US day-of-the-week effect weakens substantially for most size-ranked portfolios in most of the six approximately equal subperiods between 1962 and 1992. These findings suggest that seasonals in processing macroeconomic news account for much of the day-of-the-week effect in equity returns.

Does futures trading increase stock market volatility? The case of the Nikkei stock index futures markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 1999 23(5), 727-753
We propose new tests to examine whether stock index futures affect stock market volatility. These tests decompose spot portfolio volatility into the cross-sectional dispersion and the average volatility of returns on the portfolio's constituent securities. Our tests show that for Nikkei stocks spot portfolio volatility increased and cross-sectional dispersion decreased compared with average volatility when Nikkei futures began trading on the Osaka Securities Exchange, but not on the Singapore International Monetary Exchange. For non-Nikkei stocks, no shift occurred when futures trading began on either exchange. These findings are consistent with the hypotheses that futures trading increases spot portfolio volatility but that there is no volatility “spillover” to stocks against which futures are not traded. However, the increase in volatility attributable to futures trading is small compared with volatility shifts induced by changes in broad economic factors.

An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between mutual fund flow and market return volatility

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(10), 2111-2123
We study the dynamic relation between aggregate mutual fund flow and market-wide volatility. Using daily flow data and a VAR approach, we find that market volatility is negatively related to concurrent and lagged flow. A structural VAR impulse response analysis suggests that shock in flow has a negative impact on market volatility: An inflow (outflow) shock predicts a decline (an increase) in volatility. From the perspective of volatility–flow relation, we find evidence of volatility timing for recent period of 1998–2003. Finally, we document a differential impact of daily inflow versus outflow on intraday volatility. The relation between intraday volatility and inflow (outflow) becomes weaker (stronger) from morning to afternoon.

Interday variations in volume, variance and participation of large speculators

Journal of Banking & Finance 1997 21(6), 797-810
We use data uniquely available from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to document the intraweek trading patterns of large speculators in five futures markets. These markets include futures traded against the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index, Treasury Bonds, gold, corn, and soybeans. We also examine the influence of large speculator trades on the patterns of volume and volatility for the contracts in our sample. Though we detect the familiar U-shaped and inverted U-shaped patterns across weekdays for volatility and aggregate volume, the association between volume and volatility becomes stronger when we separate large speculator volume from volume associated with other traders. The coefficient on large speculator volume is much larger than the coefficient on other volume in these regressions. Compared with total volume, large speculator volume is greater on Mondays than on the other days of the week in all five markets.

Short-selling, margin-trading, and price efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 48, 411-424 open access
China launched a pilot scheme in March 2010 to lift the ban on short-selling and margin-trading for stocks on a designated list. We find that stocks experience negative returns when added to the list. After the ban is lifted, price efficiency increases while stock return volatility decreases. Panel data regressions reveal that intensified short-selling activities are associated with improved price efficiency. Short-sellers trade to eliminate overpricing by selling stocks with higher contemporaneous returns following a downward trend, and their trades predict future returns. In contrast, we find intensified margin-trading activities for stocks with lower contemporaneous returns, and these trades have no return predictive power.

Cross-listing and pricing efficiency: The informational and anchoring role played by the reference price

Journal of Banking & Finance 2013 37(11), 4449-4464 open access
When a firm cross-lists its shares in segmented markets, the price of the first issued share, as a reference, plays both an informational and anchoring role in pricing the second issued share. We develop a model illustrating the dual-role. Empirically, we examine a group of Chinese firms that first issue foreign shares and then domestic A-shares, for which the anchoring effect adds to the A-share underpricing. Consistent with the model predictions, we find that the A-share underpricing is positively related to the difference in costs of capital in the two segmented markets, and that this positive association is weaker when participants are less likely to resort to the anchoring heuristic and when the A-share valuation involves less uncertainty.