Knowledge that Transforms

Annuities, long‐term care insurance, and reverse mortgages remain puzzlingly unpopular to manage post‐retirement longevity, health, and housing price risks. We use a flexible life‐cycle model structurally estimated with a unique stated‐preference survey experiment of Canadian households to understand why. Key factors include high risk aversion, concern over long‐run risks, strong discounting of valuation in disability states, imperfect housing substitutability, and bequest motives. The remaining disinterest is accounted for by information frictions and inertia. We also document evidence of public insurance crowding out, spousal co‐insurance, and responsiveness to product bundling.

We present a model of competition between environmental, social, and governance (ESG) raters who acquire information about multiple unrelated categories and sell ratings. Raters specializing in different categories maximize the amount of information transmitted and surplus, and can be an equilibrium outcome. When investors place a high value on ESG performance across multiple categories, the unique equilibrium is for the raters to generalize—splitting their effort among the categories, resulting in less informative ratings. Greenwashing by firms can make generalization the only equilibrium. We also demonstrate that specialization maximizes ratings disagreement, and thus empirical measures of disagreement may be poor measures of surplus.

This paper studies asset pricing under expectations‐based reference‐dependent preferences in a general equilibrium framework. We show that reference‐dependent preferences can generate self‐fulfilling risk panics, producing sentiment‐driven asset price fluctuations through a feedback loop between current prices and perceived future downside risk—dynamics impossible under standard expected utility. The model helps explain empirical puzzles including (i) excess volatility, (ii) asymmetric volatility, (iii) asymmetric sentiment over the business cycle, (iv) excess asset price comovement, and (v) weak correlations between stock returns and economic fundamentals, alongside a sizable equity premium. Additional empirical evidence based on closed‐end fund discounts and quantitative analysis support the theory.

How did #MeToo alter collaboration between women and men? I show junior female researchers start fewer projects after #MeToo. A decrease in collaborations with male coauthors—especially new senior male coauthors at the same institution—largely explains the decline. The decrease is larger at universities with higher perceived harassment accusation risk and smaller where both women and men publicly express greater awareness of gender issues. I find no evidence that reduced collaboration improves research outcomes for junior female researchers. The results suggest that #MeToo led to a breakdown in trust that came at a cost for junior women's career opportunities.

We propose a new method to estimate the marginal value of capital under minimal assumptions. By combining asset prices with fundamentals, our method provides a quasi‐model‐free marginal q together with a simple correction for measurement error in (average) Tobin's Q using linear regressions. Marginal q yields plausible and robust estimates of adjustment costs and investment sensitivities to fundamentals. The widening gap between marginal q and Tobin's Q is driven primarily by market power and intangible capital. Our novel findings strongly support the neoclassical theory of investment and challenge the widespread use of Tobin's Q as proxy for investment opportunities.

A majority of small U.S. businesses attempting to reorganize in bankruptcy fail to successfully do so. Subchapter V of Chapter 11 was introduced in 2020 for firms with less than $7.5 million in liabilities to streamline the process by reducing bankruptcy costs and negotiation frictions, and enabling entrepreneurs to retain their ownership. Employing regression-discontinuity and difference-in-differences designs, we show that many small businesses reorganize under the new procedures that otherwise would have been liquidated. Further, expected creditor recoveries and post-bankruptcy survival rates are at least as high in Subchapter V as in similar traditional small business reorganizations. Our results show that the increased ability to preserve small businesses is not associated with a bias toward continuing unviable firms, and that creditors are not harmed by a shift in bargaining power toward small business owners.

Customers in over‐the‐counter (OTC) markets must find a counterparty to trade. Little is known about this process, however, because existing data consist of transaction records, which only reveal the outcome of a search. Using data from a trading platform for corporate bonds, we unpack the search process. We analyze how long it takes customers to trade and how dealers' offers evolve across repeated inquiries. We estimate that it takes two to three days to complete a transaction after an unsuccessful attempt, with substantial variation across trade and customer characteristics. Our analysis offers insights into the sources of trading delays in OTC markets.

This study examines the income loss following forced CEO turnovers using income data from the official records at the Danish Tax Authorities. We find that dismissed CEOs’ personal income is 40% lower in the five years following forced turnovers. The decline is driven by labor market outcomes: Labor and entrepreneurial incomes decline, while other sources of income increase. We find larger declines in income for executives with poor performance during their tenures, consistent with the executive labor market being the main channel for the lower income. Overall, the findings suggest that executives face significant personal costs from forced turnovers.

We explore the dynamics of venture capital (VC)‐backed startup boards using novel data on director entry, exit, and characteristics. At formation, a typical board is entrepreneur‐controlled. Independent directors join the median board after the second financing and hold a tie‐breaking vote. Their presence is particularly likely when potential VC‐entrepreneur conflicts are larger. At later stages, control switches to VCs and independent director characteristics change. These patterns align with key financial contracting theories, but also highlight unique roles of independent directors over the life cycle: mediation followed by advising. Independent directors thus represent another potential source of value‐add to startup performance.

Banks adjust loan spreads after observing natural disasters linked to climate change. We isolate this updating process by identifying loans to borrowers at risk of, but not directly affected by, such disasters. Loan spreads for these borrowers spike in both primary and secondary markets, while no such updating occurs for non–climate‐related disasters. Evidence suggests a heightened perceived credit risk, which nonetheless cannot fully explain the increase in rates. Taken altogether, increased spreads are explained primarily by salience bias, as they are short‐lived and amplified by media attention. This salience impacts financial decisions at bank‐dependent firms.