Knowledge that Transforms

ABSTRACT We study the role of risk preferences and frictions in portfolio choice using variation in 401(k) default options. Patterns of active choice in response to different default funds imply that, absent participation frictions, 94% of investors prefer holding stocks, with an equity share of retirement wealth declining with age—patterns markedly different from observed allocations. We use this quasi‐experiment to estimate a life‐cycle model and find a relative risk aversion of 2.5, elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) of 0.25, and $160 portfolio adjustment cost. The results suggest that low levels of stock market participation in retirement accounts are due to participation frictions rather than nonstandard preferences such as loss aversion.

ABSTRACT Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) computed around acquisition announcements are widely considered to be market‐based assessments of expected value creation. We show, however, that announcement returns do not correlate with commonly used and new measures of ex post outcomes. A simple characteristics‐based model using standard information known at the announcement date can predict these outcomes reasonably well, yet CAR even fails to capture the predictions from this model. Evidence suggests that information about the stand‐alone acquirer dominates CAR, making it virtually impossible to extract deal‐related information. We conclude that CAR is an unreliable measure of expected value creation.

ABSTRACT Green finance—including environmental, social, and governance investing and sustainable finance regulations—is widespread, but can it substitute for carbon pricing in fighting climate change? In a unified model, I show that (i) when carbon prices reflect the social cost of carbon, green finance should not be used; (ii) when carbon prices are too low, green finance can implement the social optimum if each firm's cost of capital can be set to its sustainable discount rate , which increases with the ratio of carbon emissions to firm value. I provide calibrations, analyze stranded assets, and present implementations through subsidies or preferential financing for green firms.

ABSTRACT We show that a U‐shaped monetary rate path increases banking crisis risk, via credit and asset price cycles, analyzing 17 countries over 150 years. Rate hikes (raw or instrumented) increase crisis risk, but only if preceded by prolonged cuts. These patterns are unique to banking crises, unlike noncrisis recessions. Regarding the mechanism, prolonged cuts raise the likelihood of large credit and asset price booms, consistent with higher credit supply and risk‐taking. Subsequent hikes strongly reduce credit and asset prices, and increase banks' realized credit risk, rather than interest rate risk. We find consistent results in administrative loan‐level data for Spain.

ABSTRACT This paper examines how initial public offerings (IPOs) affect firms' internal organization. We find that IPO firms become more hierarchical and standardized organizations, characterized by additional layers, more managers, smaller control spans, and larger administrative functions. These changes occur mostly in preparation for the IPO and can be only partially explained by growth. IPO firms with greater human capital risk experience larger hierarchical changes. Hierarchical changes help firms standardize employee roles and formalize internal processes. Our results suggest that firms reorganize to reduce their dependence on key individuals' human capital when transitioning to public markets.

ABSTRACT Dealer quotes in corporate bonds, though indicative, lower trading costs and increase trading volume. Dealers offering higher quality quotes attract more order flow and execute trades at favorable prices. Dealers advertise quotes to manage their inventories and attract orders from nonrelationship clients. However, quote competition is imperfect. The best quotes often fail to attract orders, and trade‐throughs are common. Nevertheless, quote competition is important as clients exploit quotes from other dealers in negotiations, forcing dealers with lower quality quotes to offer price improvements. Quoting is not a zero‐sum game, as more active bond‐level quoting leads to more bond‐level trading.

ABSTRACT Using two decades of French administrative data, we find that post‐leveraged buyout (LBO), target firms reduce within‐firm pay gaps while increasing profitability relative to control firms. Employee turnover drives the pay‐gap reduction. In target and control firms alike, turnovers reduce average pay more at the top of the wage distribution than at the bottom because separated employees are paid more—new joiners less—than similar employees, especially among skilled employees. LBOs amplify this effect through increased turnover among managers. Post‐buyout, p90/p10, gender, age, and managers/non‐managers pay gaps decline by 3%, 9%, 21%, and 4% and the employee pool becomes younger.

ABSTRACT We exploit an episode of plausibly random debt discharge due to the loss of paperwork for thousands of defaulted borrowers to examine the effects of private student debt relief on borrower outcomes. We find that borrowers who receive debt relief (treated) experience declines in debt balances and delinquency rates on other accounts, and increases in mobility and income relative to those who bear the costs of default like wage garnishment and collections (control). Borrowers in both groups contribute to our findings through different mechanisms. While our estimates may not directly apply to blanket student loan forgiveness, they speak to the benefits of forgiveness in reducing the consequences of debt burden for distressed borrowers.

ABSTRACT We show that FX interventions can be effective, particularly in attenuating global financial spillovers. We exploit global financial shocks and Brazilian central bank interventions in FX derivatives using three matched administrative registers: bank credit (to firms), foreign credit to banks, and employer‐employees. After the U.S. Taper Tantrum (followed by emerging markets' FX turbulence), Brazilian banks with more foreign debt cut credit supply, reducing firm‐level employment. A subsequent large policy intervention supplying derivatives against FX risks — hedger of last resort — halved the negative effects. A 2008 to 2015 panel exploiting global FX shocks and local FX interventions confirms the results and the hedging channel. However, the FX policy entails fiscal and moral hazard costs.

ABSTRACT We examine optimal capital requirements in a quantitative general equilibrium model with banks exposed to nondiversifiable borrower default risk. Contrary to standard models of bank default risk, our framework captures the limited upside, but significant downside risk of loan portfolio returns. This helps to reproduce the frequency and severity of twin defaults : simultaneously high firm and bank defaults. Hence, the optimal bank capital requirement, which trades off a lower frequency of twin defaults against restricting credit provision, is higher than under default risk models which underestimate the impact of borrower default on bank solvency.