Knowledge that Transforms

ABSTRACT Using proprietary transaction‐level data on nonsyndicated construction loans, we provide some of the first empirical evidence on the drivers and consequences of bank monitoring through on‐site inspections. Banks trade off monitoring intensity with favorable origination terms. Monitoring intensity escalates in response to local economic downturns or the bank's financial instability. Borrowers with negative inspection reports have more draw requests denied, suggesting that monitoring outcomes impact credit decisions. Both the occurrence and threat of increased inspection frequency correspond to reduced defaults. Overall, our results provide empirical support for a substantial body of theoretical literature on bank monitoring.

ABSTRACT Using data on Internet news reading, we measure fund‐level attention to both aggregate and firm‐specific news and relate it to fund portfolio allocation decisions. In the time series, we find that funds shift attention toward macroeconomic news during periods of high aggregate volatility. Those funds that exhibit stronger attention‐reallocation patterns earn higher future returns. In the cross‐section of fund portfolios, fund attention is positively related to stock holdings. Furthermore, fund attention to a stock increases the value‐add of that position to the fund's performance. This relationship is stronger using fund attention to more value‐relevant news articles.

ABSTRACT We introduce the concept of subtle discrimination —biased acts that cannot be objectively ascertained as discriminatory. When candidates compete for promotions by investing in skills, firms' subtle biases induce discriminated candidates to overinvest when promotions are low‐stakes (to distinguish themselves from favored candidates) but underinvest in high‐stakes settings (anticipating low promotion probabilities). This asymmetry implies that subtle discrimination raises profits in low‐productivity firms but lowers them in high‐productivity firms. Although subtle biases are small, they generate large gaps in skills and promotion outcomes. We derive further predictions in contexts such as equity analysis, lending, fund flows, banking careers, and entrepreneurial finance.

ABSTRACT Borrowers' use of cashless payments improves their access to capital from FinTech lenders and predicts a lower probability of default. These relationships are stronger for cashless technologies providing more precise information, and for outflows. Cashless payment usage complements other signals of borrower quality. We rationalize these empirical findings using a framework in which borrowers signal their lower likelihood of diverting cash flows through payment technology choice, and screening accuracy is further strengthened by informational complementarities. The informational synergy we uncover provides a rationale for the joint rise of cashless payments and FinTech lending, as well as for open banking.

ABSTRACT We infer risk‐free rates from index option prices to estimate safe asset convenience yields in 10 G11 currencies. Countries' convenience yields increase with the level of their interest rates, with U.S. convenience yields fifth largest. During financial crises, convenience yields grow, but the difference between United States and foreign convenience yields generally does not. Covered interest parity (CIP) deviations using our option‐implied rates are a similar size between the United States and each other country. A model in which convenience yields depend on domestic financial intermediaries, but CIP deviations reflect the funding costs of international arbitrageurs financed with dollar‐denominated debt, explains these results.

ABSTRACT We examine how digital disruption affects bank competition using the staggered rollout of 3G mobile networks. 3G expansion increased mobile banking adoption among tech‐savvy households, reducing branch networks—especially in younger counties. Banks' strategies diverged: Less branch‐reliant banks closed branches and competed on price, while more branch‐reliant banks maintained branches but raised spreads. A structural model shows that perceived digital service improvements among younger consumers drove these shifts, reducing welfare for older savers. Counterfactuals demonstrate that subsidizing adoption for older savers can cost‐effectively reduce these disparities, facilitating a smoother digital transition.

ABSTRACT The deposit franchise is valuable because banks pay below‐market deposit rates. However, if depositors leave, its value vanishes. This can trigger runs by uninsured depositors, even if banks hold fully liquid assets. Because the franchise value increases with interest rates, runs are more harmful, and hence likelier, when rates are high. Banks can deter runs by shortening asset duration, but this risks insolvency if rates fall. Avoiding both runs and insolvency requires capital covering the potential loss of the uninsured deposit franchise. We estimate deposit franchise values and use them to identify vulnerable banks during the 2023 regional bank crisis.

ABSTRACT We use newly assembled data overall encompassing up to 75 countries and starting circa 1910, to study impediments to the Schumpeterian process of creative destruction as it “proceeds by competitively destroying old businesses.” Political connections appear to represent an obstacle to the destructive part of the Schumpeterian process in the replacement of large firms. When accompanied by regulations that restrict entry, political connections can play a role in allowing large firms to remain large. When connected to Fogel, Morck, and Yeung (2008, Journal of Financial Economics 89, 83–108), the results imply that political connections, combined with barriers to entry, can retard economic development.