Knowledge that Transforms

In this article, we develop relative pricing (APT) models that are successful in explaining expected returns in the bond market. We utilize indexes as well as unanticipated changes in economic variables as factors driving security returns. An innovation in this article is the measurement of the economic factors as changes in forecasts. The return indexes are the most important variables in explaining the time series of returns. However, the addition of the economic variables leads to a large improvement in the explanation of the cross-section of expected returns. We utilize our relative pricing models to examine the performance of bond funds.

This article presents a framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of anticipated large demand pressures on asset risk premia. We show that large institutions who can time their entry into the market will trade either at the open, or during periods of unusual demand pressures. We show that if these institutions do enter later in the day, they trade in the same direction as institutions which provide liquidity continuously; institutions therefore appear to exhibit “herding” behavior. We also explore how changing the uncertainty of demand pressures late in the day affects trading costs throughout the day.

We examine the performance of common stock recommendations made by prominent money managers at Barron's Annual Roundtable from 1968 to 1991. To avoid survivorship bias, we examine the performance of recommendations by all the participants. The buy recommendations earn significant abnormal returns of 1.91 percent from the recommendation day to the publication day, a period of about 14 days. However, the abnormal returns are essentially zero for one to three year postpublication day holding periods. Thus, an individual investing according to the Roundtable recommendations published in Barron's would not benefit from the advice.

Starting with Ingersoll (1977b), the academic literature has repeatedly sought to explain why convertible bonds are called late. The findings here demonstrate there is no call delay to explain. This paper finds that most convertible bonds, given their call protection, are called as soon as possible. For those that are not, there are significant cash flow advantages to delaying. The median call delay for all convertible bonds is less than four months. If a safety premium is desired to assure the conversion value will exceed the call price at the end of call notice period, the median call period is less than a month.

This article tests the expectations hypothesis in the term structure of volatilities in foreign exchange options. In particular, it addresses whether long‐dated volatility quotes are consistent with expected future short‐dated volatility quotes, assuming rational expectations. For options observed daily from December 1, 1989 to August 31, 1992 on dollar exchange rates against the pound, mark, yen, and Swiss franc, we are unable to reject the expectations hypothesis in the great majority of cases. The current spread between long‐ and short‐dated volatility rates proves to be a significant predictor of the direction of future short‐dated rates.

We use the term structure of futures prices to test whether investors anticipate mean reversion in spot asset prices. The empirical results indicate mean reversion in each market we examine. For agricultural commodities and crude oil the magnitude of the estimated mean reversion is large; for example, point estimates indicate that 44 percent of a typical spot oil price shock is expected to be reversed over the subsequent eight months. For metals, the degree of mean reversion is substantially less, but still statistically significant. We detect only weak evidence of mean reversion in financial asset prices.

The concept of relative plant productivity and its measurement using census LRD data productivity and changes in ownership of manufacturing plants, Donald Siegel takeovers and corporate overhead, with Donald Siegel leveraged buyouts, with Donald Siegel US and foreign mergers and LBOs, 1988-90 the dismantling of conglomerate firms airline mergers, with Moshe Kim.

To investigate the liquidity of large issues, this study tests for yield differences between corporate bonds and medium‐term notes (MTNs). In the sample, MTNs have an average issue size of $4 million, compared with $265 million for bonds. Among MTNs that have the same issuance date, the same maturity date, and the same corporate issuer, we find no relation between size and yields. Moreover, bonds and MTNs have statistically equivalent yields. Thus, rather than suggesting that large issues have greater liquidity, these findings indicate that large and small securities issued by the same borrower are close substitutes.

Previous research demonstrates that a firm's common stock price tends to fall when it issues new public securities. By contrast, commercial bank loans elicit significantly positive borrower returns. This article investigates whether the lender's identity influences the market's reaction to a loan announcement. Although we find no significant difference between the market's response to bank and nonbank loans, we do find that lenders with a higher credit rating are associated with larger abnormal borrower returns. This evidence complements earlier findings that an auditor's or investment banker's perceived “quality” signals valuable information about firm value to uninformed market investors.

This article presents evidence suggesting that the relationship that existed between the partnership of J. P. Morgan and its client firms partially resolved the latter's external financing problems by diminishing the principal‐agent and asymmetric information problems. I estimate and compare investment regression equations for a sample of Morgan‐affiliated companies and a control group of nonaffiliated companies. The econometric results seem to indicate that companies not affiliated to the House of Morgan were liquidity constrained.