Knowledge that Transforms

Many dividend theories imply that changes in dividends have information content about the future earnings of the firm. We investigate this implication and find only limited support for it. Firms that increase dividends in year 0 have experienced significant earnings increases in years −1 and 0, but show no subsequent unexpected earnings growth. Also, the size of the dividend increase does not predict future earnings. Firms that cut dividends in year 0 have experienced a reduction in earnings in year 0 and in year −1, but these firms go on to show significant increases in earnings in year 1. However, consistent with Lintner's model on dividend policy, firms that increase dividends are less likely than nonchanging firms to experience a drop in future earnings. Thus, their increase in concurrent earnings can be said to be somewhat “permanent.” In spite of the lack of future earnings growth, firms that increase dividends have significant (though modest) positive excess returns for the following three years.

This article examines whether shifts in the stance of monetary policy can account for the observed predictability in excess stock returns. Using long-horizon regressions and short-horizon vector autoregressions, the article concludes that monetary policy variables are significant predictors of future returns, although they cannot fully account for observed stock return predictability. I undertake variance decompositions to investigate how monetary policy affects the individual components of excess returns (risk-free discount rates, risk premia, or cash flows).

This article studies the equilibrium valuation of foreign exchange contingent claims. Within a continuous‐time Lucas (1982) two‐country model, exchange rates, interest rates and, in particular, factor risk prices are all endogenously and jointly determined. This guarantees the internal consistency of these price processes with a general equilibrium. In the same model, closed‐form valuation formulas are presented for currency options and currency futures options. Common to these formulas is that stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates are admitted. Hedge ratios and other comparative statics are also provided analytically. It is shown that most existing currency option models are included as special cases.

Financial economists have long debated whether monetary policy is neutral. This article addresses this question by examining how stock return data respond to monetary policy shocks. Monetary policy is measured by innovations in the federal funds rate and nonborrowed reserves, by narrative indicators, and by an event study of Federal Reserve policy changes. In every case the evidence indicates that expansionary policy increases ex-post stock returns. Results from estimating a multi-factor model also indicate that exposure to monetary policy increases an asset's ex-ante return.

This article develops a game‐theoretic model to analyze market makers' intertemporal pricing strategies. We show that dealers who adopt noncooperative pricing strategies may set bid‐ask spreads above competitive levels. This form of “implicit collusion” differs from explicit collusion, where dealers cooperate to fix prices. Price discreteness or asymmetric information are not required for collusion to occur. Rather, institutional arrangements that restrict access to the order flow are important determinants of the ability to collude because they reduce dealers' incentives to compete on price. Public policy efforts to increase interdealer competition should focus on such restrictions.

We provide evidence about the motivation for a parent–subsidiary governance structure by analyzing valuation effects of seasoned equity offerings by publicly traded affiliated units. Our results support Nanda's (1991) theoretical model which predicts equity offerings convey differential information about subsidiary and parent value. Subsidiary equity issuance has negative valuation effects on issuing subsidiaries and positive effects on parents, while parent equity issuance reduces issuing parent wealth and increases subsidiary wealth. Our evidence suggests that a parent–subsidiary organizational structure enhances corporate financing flexibility and mitigates underinvestment problems identified by Myers and Majluf (1984) . There is no evidence of subsidiary wealth expropriation.

Fama and French (1992) document a significant relation between firm size, book-to-market ratios, and security returns for nonfinancial firms. Because of their initial interest in leverage as an explanatory variable for security returns, Fama and French exclude from their analysis financial firms, thus creating a natural holdout sample on which to test the robustness of their results. We document that the relation between firm size, book-to-market ratios, and security returns is similar for financial and nonfinancial firms. In addition, we present evidence that survivorship bias does not significantly affect the estimated size or book-to-market premiums in returns. Our results indicate data-snooping and selection biases do not explain the size and book-to-market patterns in returns.

In a duopoly model of informed speculation, we show that overconfidence may strictly dominate rationality since an overconfident trader may not only generate higher expected profit and utility than his rational opponent, but also higher than if he were also rational. This occurs because overconfidence acts like a commitment device in a standard Cournot duopoly. As a result, for some parameter values the Nash equilibrium of a two-fund game is a Prisoner's Dilemma in which both funds hire overconfident managers. Thus, overconfidence can persist and survive in the long run.