Knowledge that Transforms

Conventional tests for a risk premium in the price of forward exchange use the subsequently realized spot rate as a proxy for prior expectations. Use of this proxy creates a serious errors‐in‐variables problem which makes it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of zero risk premium. Use of a better proxy for expectations indicates the presence of a risk premium in the forward exchange rate of all countries analyzed.

Using a test statistic which specifically allows for parameter shifts over time, we investigate the time-variance relationship of security returns. The null hypothesis of stationary and independent increments is rejected, and the existence of a complex short-term reversal phenomenon is reported.

The paper presents a theoretical proof that flattening of yield curves for par bonds is inevitable for long maturities. This proof implies that behavioral explanations of flattening are unnecessary. The proof also implies that the use of yields to maturity of couponbearing bonds to estimate the true term structure (as well as forward rates) for long maturities has potentially infinite bias, suggesting that a greater effort should be made to directly estimate the true term structure in empirical work.

The wealth redistributive effects of retroactive termination insurance together with the difficulty of determining insurance premiums suggest that an alternative response, such as improved disclosure of worker benefits in the event of plan wind‐up, may be preferred if the government remains concerned about the security of benefits in underfunded plans. Members of money purchase plans may well be less subject to investment risk than members of defined benefit plans, contrary to the claim of many. In Canada, defined benefit plans appear to have been transformed into defined benefit/money purchase hybrids, and this has several important implications.