Knowledge that Transforms

This paper studies the information value of immediate disclosure of the FOMC policy directive. The value of disclosure is measured by its ability to reduce investors' expected uncertainty about futures interest rates where uncertainty is defined as the conditional variance of forecast errors. Analytical relationships between new information and the conditional variance of forecast errors are developed and the relation of the “uncertainty‐reducing” value of information to its social value, as defined in recent literature, is indicated. In the empirical work, forward interest rates are treated as reflecting market expectations conditioned on existing information. The empirical tests indicate that information in the undisclosed, prevailing policy directives (1974–79) were able to make only a very marginal improvement in the predictive accuracy of forecasts relying only on the forward rates. Thus, the hypothesis that immediate disclosure has a significant information value to market participants is not supported.

Sustained high rate of inflation has led to the creation of debt instruments with variable interest rate. The availability of these debt instruments presents management with the problem of the choice of the optimal debt portfolio. This paper deals with this problem assuming a given, and optimal, debt to equity ratio. Given expected monetary value maximization, an efficient frontier is derived in terms of the expected net income and probability of bankruptcy, where net income is defined as operating income minus debt repayment. This efficient frontier is shown to be also mean‐variance efficient. It is also shown that in most cases the optimal debt portfolio includes more than one debt instrument. In other words, the firm will avoid the policy of minimizing the expected cost of its debt repayments or the policy of minimizing the costs of bankruptcy. The optimal solution itself is affected by market variables like the relative expected cost of different debt instruments and by firm specific variables like the variability of its operating income stream, and the covariance between the operating income and the debt repayments.

R. S. Bower, Impact of Regulation on Economic Behavior: Discussion, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 36, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Thirty Ninth Annual Meeting American Finance Association, Denver, September 5-7, 1980 (May, 1981), pp. 397-399

Investments in default‐free bonds can be insulated from financial loss due to interest rate changes (via additive shock) by a process known as immunization. The literature on this process ignores taxes. This manuscript focuses on three issues. The first is the development of the tax‐adjusted immunization process with a comparison to the existing literature. The second issue is the microeconomic effect of a shift in only the individual's tax rates on immunization and investment behavior. The third issue is the macroeconomic effect of an across‐the‐board shift in tax rates on immunization and investment behavior.