Knowledge that Transforms

This paper analyzes the market for financial assets in a production and exchange economy with several realized outputs and a single unobservable source of nondiversifiable risk. The paper demonstrates that, for a large class of diffusion outputs and preferences, optimizing consumers first estimate the realizations of the unobservable factor and then use these estimates to determine portfolio and consumption rules. Moreover, the explicit consideration of this unobservable productivity factor affects equilibrium demands and prices. The equilibrium spot rate of interest emerges as the “best estimate” of the unobservable factor, and multiperiod default‐free bonds arise as the optimal hedge for the unobservable changes of the stochastic investment opportunity set.

This paper addresses the issue of whether firms are required to pay an ex ante premium to investors for bearing the risk of interest‐rate changes. A two‐factor APT model with the market and changes in the yield on long‐term government bonds as factors is employed. The paper shows that, empirically, most of the interest‐sensitive stocks are in the utility industries, and that there is reasonable evidence that the interest factor is priced in the sense of the APT. Several sources for the interest sensitivity are considered, and regulatory lags are focused on as a likely candidate.

Since September, 1976, stocks newly included into the Standard and Poor's 500 Index have earned a significant positive abnormal return at the announcement of the inclusion. This return does not disappear for at least ten days after the inclusion. The returns are positively related to measures of buying by index funds, consistent with the hypothesis that demand curves for stocks slope down. The returns are not related to S & P's bond ratings, which is inconsistent with a plausible version of the hypothesis that inclusion is a certification of the quality of the stock.

The one‐factor version of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model of the term structure is estimated using monthly quotes on U.S. Treasury issues trading from 1952 through 1983. Using data from a single yield curve, it is possible to estimate implied short and long term zero coupon rates and the implied variance of changes in short rates. Analysis of residuals points to a probable neglected tax effect.

This paper examines the power of statistical tests commonly used to evaluate the efficiency of speculative markets. It shows that these tests have very low power. Market valuations can differ substantially and persistently from the rational expectation of the present value of cash flows without leaving statistically discernible traces in the pattern of ex-post returns. This observation implies that speculation is unlikely to ensure rational valuations, since similar problems of identification plague both financial economists and would be speculators.

This paper looks at the moral hazard and adverse selection problems confronting an entrepreneur offering securities to an uninformed, but competitive financial market. The adverse selection aspect of the problem is generated by the unobservable entrepreneur's ability to transform effort into value. Moral hazard arises because the investment decision is made subsequent to financing. We consider the joint use of both debt and equity, and characterize the equilibrium relation between capital structure and unobservable attributes. It is shown that: (1) investment and financing are not separable; (2) there is an underinvestment problem for “better” firms; and (3) simultaneous use of both debt and equity can resolve this difficulty. We also establish a connection between expected terminal firm value and debt‐promised payment level and between share retention and standard deviation.

This paper characterizes the function relating the number of new shares issued by a firm to the resulting change in the firm's stock price, when insiders are asymmetrically informed. We show that, in equilibrium, the stock price will be a decreasing function of the issue size; moreover, the rate of decrease can be so rapid to cause “equity rationing.” We also show that there will be underinvestment relative to the symmetric information case.

Recent theoretical work on the bid‐ask spread asserts that the dealer should widen the bid‐ask spread when he or she suspects that the information advantage possessed by informed traders has increased. Thus, the dealer's spread can be employed to test for an increase in information asymmetry prior to an anticipated information event. In this paper, the method is applied to earnings and dividend announcements, which have been documented to be information events. The authors study three groups of announcements: (a) joint announcements—i.e., earnings and dividend announcements that are made on the same day, (b) initial (first) announcements—earnings or dividend announcements that were not preceded by another announcement in the prior thirty days, and (c) following (second) announcements—those announcements that follow the first announcement by at least ten days but by no more than thirty days. The authors find a strong increase in information asymmetry only before the second announcements and virtually no increase before the joint and first announcements. This is consistent with the hypothesis that there is, on average, normal information asymmetry before announcements, but that the dealer will suspect a nonroutine announcement (with an attendant increase in information asymmetry) when the second announcement is separated from the first by more than ten days. Other possible explanations for the results are discussed, and suggestions for future research are outlined.