Knowledge that Transforms

This paper investigates the resiliency of the new-issue high-yield bond market by examining the changes in implied default rates of such bonds before and after the largest high-yield bond default, i.e., the LTV bankruptcy. Specifically, the paper compares implied default probabilities of high-yield bonds during the post-LTV period calculated from actual new-issue yields with instrumental default probabilities calculated on the assumption that the default had not occurred. A comparison of these probabilities reveals that the market's perception of default on the high risk segment of the bond market increased significantly after the LTV bankruptcy. However, the effect was transitory, lasting only six months. Thus, the market was resilient to a major default.

This paper presents a portfolio approach to estimating the average correlation coefficient of a group of stocks which are considered for portfolio analysis. The average correlation coefficient has been shown to produce a better estimate of the future correlation matrix than individual pairwise correlations. The advantage of the approach described here is that it does not require the estimation of pairwise correlations for estimating their average.

A firm raising capital in an initial public offering faces the problems of choosing between a firm-commitment and a best-efforts offering and of how to convey information about its value to potential investors. The offering method chosen affects both the firm's cost of obtaining capital and investors' perceptions about firm value. A partially pooling, partially separating equilibrium is found where high-valued firms have information about their values revealed in a firm-commitment offering, while low-valued firms use best-efforts offerings and are unable to distinguish themselves from other firms.

We provide a rationale for the presence of points in mortgage loan contracts. Our analysis builds on two key features. First, insurance markets are unavailable for labor income. Second, the “due-on-sale” clause allows banks to offer loan contracts which partially insure against fluctuations in labor income. If explicit prepayment penalties are prohibited by law, points serve effectively as prepayment penalties. We also examine environments where such penalties are not prohibited and show that points will be used if interest rates cannot depend on the size of the loan.

This study investigates the information effect caused by a firm's change in capital structure via debt-for-equity and equity-for-debt exchange offers. The evidence suggests that the former transactions lead to abnormal stock price increases, while the latter lead to abnormal stock price decreases. In addition, findings based on analysis of bond returns and cross-sectional regressions do not lend support to the wealth-transfer- and tax-effect hypotheses, but they are consistent with the information-effect hypothesis.

A test of the efficiency of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, relative to post-split increases in the volatility of common stocks, is presented. The Black-Scholes and Roll option pricing formulas are used to examine the behavior of implied standard deviations (ISDs) around split announcement and ex-dates. Comparisons with a control group of stocks find no relative increase in ISDs of stocks announcing splits. However, a relative increase is detected at the ex-date. Therefore, the joint hypothesis that 1) the Black-Scholes and Roll formulas are true and 2) the CBOE is efficient can be rejected.

This study examines the effect of bidder competition in acquisitions. We use predictions from auction theory to test whether acquirers of failed banks overpay (the “winner's curse”) when bidding in FDIC sealed-bid purchase and assumption (P&A) transactions (auctions). The empirical results indicate that winning bids tend to increase as the number of competitors increases, as predicted by theory. We also find that bid levels of all bidders increase with increased competition, which is consistent with bidders' failing to adjust for the winner's curse in a common value auction setting. However, additional tests using winning bids only are consistent with both a common value and a private values model, so this result should be interpreted with caution.

Often futures contracts contain quality options whereby the short position has the choice of delivering one of an acceptable set of assets. We explore the implications of the quality option on the futures price. We develop a method for pricing the quality option for the general case of n deliverable assets and provide numerical illustrations of its significance. Even when the asset prices are very highly correlated, this option can have nontrivial value, especially when there is a large number of deliverable assets. We analyze the impact of the timing option and its interaction with the quality option. A procedure is developed for valuing the timing option in the presence of the quality option, and some numerical estimates are obtained.