Knowledge that Transforms

ABSTRACT We model the effect of nonperformance risk on forward and futures pricing and look for evidence of nonperformance risk in precious metals futures prices from the “Hunt Brothers”episode. Changes in default premiums are measured and related to the sequence of events in the metals markets during this period. Results suggest first that ex ante costs of nonperformance can be a significant, priced factor in commodity markets and second that the arrival of new information is often associated with changes in these costs. The evidence has implications for both theoretical and empirical research on commodity markets.

ABSTRACT The paper focuses on the valuation of caps, floors, and collars in a contingent claim framework under continuous time. These instruments are interpreted as options on traded zero coupon bonds. The bond prices themselves are used as the underlying stochastic variables. This has the advantage that we end up with closed form solutions which are easy to compute. Special attention is devoted to the choice of the stochastic process appropriate for the price dynamics of the underlying zero coupon bonds.

We develop a model of market efficiency assuming private information is partially revealed to uninformed traders via the behavior of those who are informed. This partial revelation of information (PRE) model is tested in fourteen computerized double auction laboratory markets. It explains the market value and allocation of purchased information, and asset allocations, better than either a fully revealing information model (FRE strong-form efficiency) or a nonrevealing expectations model; but it takes second place to FRE in explaining asset prices. We conjecture that refined versions of PRE may provide insight into “technical analysis” and minibubbles in securities markets.

Debt and equity are developed as optimal financial instruments in a model where cash flows and control rights are allocated to investors endogenously. When investment decisions must be made by a single party, the debtholder's cash flows are fixed in order to provide the equityholder with efficient incentives for investment. Ownership of control may be transferred to the debtholder to attenuate the impact of asymmetric information, concerning the investment opportunity, on the efficiency of the decision making.

This paper investigates the efficiency of the market for stock index futures and the profitability of index arbitrage for The Chicago Board of Trade's Major Market Index contracts. The spot value of the index is computed with transactions prices for the component shares of the index obtained from the Fitch database. The tests account for transaction costs, execution lags, and the uptick rule for short sales of stocks. Results indicate that the size and frequency of boundary violations are substantially smaller than those reported by earlier studies and have declined sharply with time.

ABSTRACT Compensation planning within firms creates important corporate financial problems. Theoretical models and empirical tests of hypotheses in this area should play a much larger role than currently in the modern theory of corporate finance. Employees fund a large proportion of their firm's activities through deferred compensation arrangements tied to the performance of their company. These arrangements are generally put in place for incentive reasons, to align the interests of employees more closely with those of shareholders. Moreover, tax rules encourage or discourage these arrangements at various times. Currently, both tax rules and incentive considerations encourage stock buyback programs to fund deferred compensation arrangements. Prior to the 1980s, however, tax rules favored funding in other than company stock, implying that employees likely held company stock for incentive and not for tax reasons during this time period.

ABSTRACT This paper extends the APT to an international setting. Specifying a linear factor return‐generating model in local currency terms, we show that the usual risk‐diversification rule in the APT does not yield a riskless portfolio unless currency fluctuations obey the same factor model as asset returns. We then consider an arbitrage portfolio whose exchange risk is hedged by foreign riskless bonds. Under the resulting no‐arbitrage conditions, the expected returns are not on the same hyperplane, unlike the closed‐economy APT, unless they are adjusted by the cost of exchange risk hedging.

Tax-loss selling by investors in common stocks near the end of calendar years has been proposed as an explanation for the turn-of-the-year effect in stock returns. Past analyses of this hypothesis have relied on inferential data. We provide here some direct data from a compilation of over 80,000 actual common stock investment round trips by a sample of 3000 individual investors. We find strong evidence of a concentration of loss-taking trades late in the year and milder evidence of a concentration just prior to the dates when investments become eligible for long-term tax treatment.