Knowledge that Transforms

This paper studies a nonexpected utility, general equilibrium asset pricing model in which market fundamentals follow a bivariate Markov switching process. The results show that nonexpected utility is capable of exactly matching the means of the risk‐free rate and the risk premium. Asymmetric market fundamentals are capable of generating a negative sample correlation between the risk‐free rate and the risk premium. Moreover, an equilibrium asset pricing model endowed with asymmetric market fundamentals is consistent with all five first and second moments of the risk‐free rate and the risk premium in the U.S. data.

This article examines the role of measurement biases, due to order flow effects, in abnormal split ex‐day returns. We conjecture that postsplit orders consist of numerous small buyers and fewer larger sellers. This change in order flow causes closing prices to occur more frequently at the ask price, consistent with Maloney and Mulherin (1992) and Grinblatt and Keim (1991) . In addition, this change causes specialists' spreads to increase, perhaps to offset larger average inventories. We examine both NYSE and NASDAQ samples and find that order flow biases can explain approximately 80 percent (48 percent) of the NYSE (NASDAQ) ex‐day return.

We develop a measure of public information flow to financial markets and use it to document the patterns of information arrival, with an emphasis on the intraday flows. The measure is the number of news releases by Reuter's News Service per unit of time. We find that public information arrival is nonconstant, displaying seasonalities and distinct intraday patterns. Next we relate our measure of public information to aggregate measures of intraday market activity. Our results suggest a positive, moderate relationship between public information and trading volume, but an insignificant relationship with price volatility.

This article presents a model of repurchase tender offers in which firms choose between the Dutch auction method and the fixed price method. Dutch auction repurchases are more effective takeover deterrents, while fixed price repurchases are more effective signals of undervaluation. The model yields empirical implications regarding price effects of repurchases, likelihood of takeover, managerial compensation, and cross‐sectional differences in the elasticity of the supply curve for shares.

We present the first evidence that initial ratings of commercial paper influence common stock returns. Highly-rated industrial issues of commercial paper, unaccompanied by bank letters of credit, are associated with significantly positive abnormal returns; lower-rated issues are not. The stock price effects of changes in commercial paper ratings also demonstrate the relevance of ratings to the financing of firms. Rating downgrades, especially those that imply an exit from the commercial paper market, produce significantly negative abnormal returns; upgrades have no effects. Initial commercial paper ratings and subsequent reratings appear to help investors sort firms by their future prospects.

Part 1 Investment mathematics: compound interest fixed-interest bonds equities and real estate real returns index-linked bonds foreign currency investments numerical approximation techniques. Part 2 Statistics: data collection and presentation descriptive statistics probability some particular probability distributions confidence intervals and hypothesis testing correlation and regression. Part 3 More advanced applications: portfolio theory market indices and performance measurement bond portfolio management bond switching curve fitting theoretical pricing of futures and forwards theoretical pricing of options the stochastic approach to the theory of interest.

This study shows how the standard portfolio model of futures trading should be modified when there is less than perfect information about the relevant parameters (estimation risk). The standard and the optimal decision rules for futures trading in the presence of estimation risk are compared and discussed. An operational model of futures trading for use under estimation risk is advanced. In the presence of relevant prior and sample information, the model can be used to optimally blend both types of information.

This article examines the impact of a takeover bid on careers and compensation of chief executives of target firms. We find that acquisition attempts occur more frequently in industries where chief executive officers (CEO) have positive abnormal compensation. Target CEOs are more likely to be replaced when a bid succeeds, than when it fails. CEOs of target firms who lose their jobs generally fail to find another senior executive position in any public corporation within three years after the bid. Consistent with Fama's (1980) notion of ex post settling up, postbid compensation changes of managers retained after an acquisition attempt are negatively related to several measures of their prebid abnormal compensation. This result is robust to a variety of specifications and does not seem to be caused by mean reversion or selection bias. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that a takeover bid generates additional information that is used by labor markets to discipline managers.