Knowledge that Transforms

ABSTRACT We build an arbitrage‐based model of the yield curves in a heterogeneous monetary union with sovereign default risk, which accounts for the asymmetric shifts in euro‐area yields during the Covid‐19 pandemic. We derive an affine term structure solution, and decompose yields into expectations, term premium, expected default loss, and credit risk premium components. In an extension, we endogenize the peripheral default probability, showing that it decreases with central bank bond holdings. Calibrating the model to Germany and Italy, we show that both the level and the shifts in the sovereign spread are mainly attributable to the credit risk premium.

ABSTRACT Using contract‐level data for the Canadian mortgage market, this paper provides evidence of an “invest‐and‐harvest” pricing pattern. We build a dynamic model of price negotiation with search and switching frictions to capture key market features. We estimate the model and use it to investigate the effects of market frictions and the resulting dynamic competition on borrowers' and banks' payoffs. We show that dynamic pricing and the presence of search and switching costs have important implications for public policies.

ABSTRACT We compare execution quality of six brokerage accounts across five brokers by generating a sample of 85,000 simultaneous market orders. Commission levels and payment for order flow (PFOF) differ across our accounts. We find that execution prices vary significantly across brokers: the mean account‐level round‐trip cost ranges from 0.07% to 0.46%, excluding any commissions. The dispersion is due to off‐exchange wholesalers systematically giving different execution prices for the same trades to different brokers. Across brokers, variation in PFOF does not explain the large variation in price execution. We provide several suggestions for more informative disclosures on execution quality.

ABSTRACT The abnormal return associated with a stock being added to the S&P 500 has fallen from an average of 7.4% in the 1990s to less than 1% over the past decade. This has occurred despite a significant increase in the share of stock market assets linked to the index. A similar pattern has occurred for index deletions, with large negative abnormal returns during the 1990s but an average return of only 0.1% between 2010 and 2020. We investigate the drivers of this phenomenon and discuss implications for market efficiency. We document a similar decline in the index effect among other families of indices.

ABSTRACT We examine the effect of personal, two‐way communication on the payment behavior of delinquent borrowers. Borrowers who speak with a randomly assigned bank agent are significantly more likely to successfully resolve the delinquency relative to borrowers who do not speak with a bank agent. Call characteristics related to the human touch of the call, such as the likeability of the agent's voice, significantly affect payment behavior. Borrowers who speak with a bank agent are also significantly less likely to become delinquent again. Our findings highlight the value of a human element in interactions between financial institutions and their customers.

ABSTRACT We provide evidence using firm 10‐Ks that over the past 30 years, U.S. firms have expanded their scope of operations. Increases in scope were achieved largely without increasing traditional operating segments. Scope expansion significantly increases valuation and is realized primarily through acquisitions and investment in R&D, but not through capital expenditures. Traditional concentration ratios do not capture this expansion of scope. Our findings point to a new type of firm that increases scope through related expansion, which is highly valued by the market.

ABSTRACT This paper makes the first comprehensive attempt to study within‐country heterogeneity of housing returns. We introduce a new city‐level data set covering 15 OECD countries over 150 years and show that national housing markets are characterized by systematic spatial variation in housing returns. Total returns in large agglomerations are close to 100 basis points lower per year than in other parts of the same country. Excess returns outside the large cities can be rationalized as compensation for higher risk, especially higher covariance with income growth and lower liquidity. Real estate in diversified large agglomerations is comparatively safe.

ABSTRACT Using account‐level data on millions of U.S. middle‐class investors over 2006 to 2018, we characterize the share of investable wealth that they hold in the stock market over their working lives. Relative to the 1990s, this share has both risen by 10% and become age‐dependent. The Pension Protection Act (PPA)—which allowed target date funds (TDFs) to be default options in retirement plans—played an important role: younger (older) workers starting at a firm after TDFs became the default option post‐PPA invested more (less) in stocks, in line with the TDF glidepath. In contrast, contribution rates changed little following the PPA.

ABSTRACT We develop a theory of secured debt, unsecured debt, and debt with anti‐dilution covenants. We assume that, as in practice, covenants convey the right to accelerate if violated, but the new secured debt retains its priority even if issued in violation of covenants. We find that such covenants are nonetheless useful: They provide state‐contingent financing flexibility, balancing over‐ and underinvestment incentives. The optimal debt structure is multilayered, combining secured and unsecured debt with and without covenants. Our results are consistent with observations about debt structure, covenant violations, and waivers. They speak to a policy debate about debt priority.

ABSTRACT We build cross‐sections of asset returns for a given set of characteristics, that is, managed portfolios serving as test assets, as well as building blocks for tradable risk factors. We use decision trees to endogenously group similar stocks together by selecting optimal portfolio splits to span the stochastic discount factor, projected on individual stocks. Our portfolios are interpretable and well diversified, reflecting many characteristics and their interactions. Compared to combinations of dozens (even hundreds) of single/double sorts, as well as machine‐learning prediction‐based portfolios, our cross‐sections are low‐dimensional yet have up to three times higher out‐of‐sample Sharpe ratios and alphas.