Contrary to conventional wisdom, growth stocks (i.e., low book‐to‐market stocks) do not have substantially higher future cash‐flow growth rates than value stocks, in both rebalanced and buy‐and‐hold portfolios. Efficiency growth, survivorship and look‐back biases, and the rebalancing effect help explain the results. These findings suggest that duration alone is unlikely to explain the value premium.

This paper studies the relation between changes in financial investment opportunities and changes in the macroeconomy. States variables, such as the lagged production growth rate, the default premium, the term premium, the short-term interest rate, and the market dividend-price ratio, are shown to be indicators of recent and future economic growth and positively correlated with expected future economic growth. These results offer straightforward interpretations of recent evidence on the forecasts of the market excess return by state variable via their forecasts on the macroeconomy.

Andrew H. Chen, External Financing and Liquidity: Discussion, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 39, No. 3, Papers and Proceedings, Forty-Second Annual Meeting, American Finance Association, San Francisco, CA, December 28-30, 1983 (Jul., 1984), pp. 908-910