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Money and stock prices

Journal of Financial Economics 1974 1(3), 245-302 open access
This paper examines stock market efficiency with respect to money supply data by testing (1) regression models of stock returns on monetary variables and (2) trading rules based on money supply data. The evidence indicates no meaningful lag in the effect of monetary policy on the stock market and that no profitable security trading rules using past values of the money supply exist. Therefore this evidence is consistent with the efficient market model. Current security returns incorporate all information contained in past money supply data and, in addition, appear to anticipate future changes in the money supply. A number of previous studies have concluded that lags exist and can be used in profitable trading rules. Analysis of these studies demonstrates that for a variety of reasons the evidence in these past studies does not sustain such conclusions.

The wealth effects of company initiated management changes

Journal of Financial Economics 1987 18(1), 147-160 open access
The essence of corporate control includes the hiring and firing of key managers. We examine changes in equity values when the Board of Directors appoints and dismisses top-level managers. The evidence suggests that management changes signal shifts in company policy and raise shareholder wealth, internal promotions confirm the soundness of investment by large companies in firm-specific human capital while external appointments do not, promotions occur more often than external appointments but decline in importance as firm size decreases, and dismissal is not a favored means to handle managerial underperformance but is associated with stock price increases when used.