Knowledge that Transforms

Investment banks frequently hire analysts from rating agencies. While many argue that this “revolving door” creates captured analysts, it can also create incentives to improve accuracy. To study this issue, I construct an original data set, linking analysts to their career paths and the securitized finance ratings they issue. First, I show that accurate analysts are more frequently hired by underwriting investment banks. Second, I exploit two distinct sources of variation in the likelihood of being hired by a bank. Both indicate that, as this likelihood rises, analyst accuracy improves. The findings suggest policymakers should consider incentive effects alongside capture concerns.

Absent theoretical guidance, empiricists have been forced to rely upon numerical comparative statics from constant tax rate models in formulating testable implications of tradeoff theory in the context of natural experiments. We fill the theoretical void by solving in closed-form a dynamic tradeoff theoretic model in which corporate taxes follow a Markov process with exogenous rate changes. We simulate ideal difference-in-differences estimations, finding that constant tax rate models offer poor guidance regarding testable implications. While constant rate models predict large symmetric responses to rate changes, our model with stochastic tax rates predicts small, asymmetric, and often statistically insignificant responses. Even with very long regimes (one decade), under plausible parameterizations, the true underlying theory—that taxes matter—is incorrectly rejected in about half the simulated natural experiments. Moreover, tax response coefficients are actually smaller in simulated economies with larger tax-induced welfare losses.

I present a model in which bank net worth determines both loan market competition and monetary transmission to firm borrowing rates. In the model, banks are local monopolists for borrowers near them. When they are flush with equity, banks expand their lending, compete for customers at the edges of their markets, and pass through changes in the monetary policy rate to their loan rates. When they lose substantial equity, banks consolidate, retreat from rivalry, and frustrate monetary transmission. The model explains why interest rate pass-through weakens after financial crises. Its predictions are consistent with several facts about bank-to-firm lending.

Yes. We show that dividend changes contain information about highly persistent changes in future economic income. Three methodological differences lead us to different conclusions from the extant literature: (i) we use an “event window approach” to cleanly delineate earnings after dividend changes from those before, (ii) we use alternative earnings measures to control for endogenous investment and asset write-downs surrounding dividend changes, and (iii) we control for the nonlinear relation between dividend changes and market reactions. Our results suggest dividend announcement returns reflect information about the level of permanent earnings, though the timing of the information content is difficult to reconcile with traditional signaling models.

We use investment-level data to study performance persistence in venture capital (VC). Consistent with prior studies, we find that each additional initial public offering (IPO) among a VC firm’s first ten investments predicts as much as an 8% higher IPO rate on its subsequent investments, though this effect erodes with time. In exploring its sources, we document several additional facts: successful outcomes stem in large part from investing in the right places at the right times; VC firms do not persist in their ability to choose the right places and times to invest; but early success does lead to investing in later rounds and in larger syndicates. This pattern of results seems most consistent with the idea that initial success improves access to deal flow. That preferential access raises the quality of subsequent investments, perpetuating performance differences in initial investments.

Does democratization reduce the cost of credit? Using global syndicated loan data from 1984 to 2014, we find that democratization has a sizable negative effect on loan spreads: a 1-point increase in the zero-to-ten Polity IV index of democracy shaves at least 19 basis points off spreads, but likely more. Reversals to autocracy hike spreads more strongly. Our findings are robust to the comprehensive inclusion of relevant controls, to the instrumentation with regional waves of democratization, and to a battery of other sensitivity tests. We thus highlight the lower cost of loans as one relevant mechanism through which democratization can affect economic development.

Corporate bond mutual funds engage in liquidity transformation, raising concerns among academics and policy makers that large redemptions will lead to asset fire sales. We find little evidence, however, that bond fund redemptions drive fire sale price pressure after controlling for time-varying issuer-level information that could also affect funds’ trading decisions, using a novel identification strategy that exploits same-issuer bonds held by funds with differing outflows. We attribute our findings, which contrast with those found for equity funds, to funds’ liquidity management strategies. Bond funds maintain significant liquidity cushions and selectively trade liquid assets, allowing them to absorb investor redemption risk without excessively liquidating corporate bonds, even during the 2008 financial crisis.

Cryptocurrency markets exhibit periods of large, recurrent arbitrage opportunities across exchanges. These price deviations are much larger across than within countries, and smaller between cryptocurrencies, highlighting the importance of capital controls for the movement of arbitrage capital. Price deviations across countries co-move and open up in times of large bitcoin appreciation. Countries with higher bitcoin premia over the US bitcoin price see widening arbitrage deviations when bitcoin appreciates. Finally, we decompose signed volume on each exchange into a common and an idiosyncratic component. The common component explains 80% of bitcoin returns. The idiosyncratic components help explain arbitrage spreads between exchanges.

The Dodd-Frank Act mandates that certain standard over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives must be traded on swap execution facilities (SEFs). Using message-level data, we provide a granular analysis of dealers’ and customers’ trading behavior on the two largest dealer-to-customer SEFs for index credit default swaps (CDS). On average, a typical customer contacts few dealers when seeking liquidity. A theoretical model shows that the benefit of competition through wider order exposure is mitigated by a winner’s curse problem and dealer-customer relationships. Consistent with the model, we find that order size, market conditions, and customer-dealer relationships are important empirical determinants of customers’ choice of trading mechanism and dealers’ liquidity provision.

This paper develops a novel measure of liquidity supply by broker-dealers using data on their trading positions in Treasury bonds and the deviations of Treasury yields from a fitted yield curve. The measure is informative about liquidity in other asset classes, including corporate bonds and equities. A decline in liquidity supply predicts reduced debt issuance and investment by nonfinancial firms and reduced aggregate economic activity. The sensitivity of liquidity, issuance, and investment to broker-dealers’ liquidity supply is larger for firms with low credit quality. The results suggest that securities intermediaries are important for understanding liquidity commonality, corporate financing, and real activity.