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Post-trade transparency on Nasdaq's national market system1We would like to thank Tom Abbott, Robert Battalio, George Benston, Bill Christie, Larry Fisher, Steve Foerster, Jason Greene, Mike Jensen, Pete Kyle, Paul Laux, Ananth Madhavan, Jean Masson, Junius Peake, Paul Schultz, Paul Seguin, Paul Torregrosa, Dave Whitcomb, as well as seminar participants at the Northern, Southern, and Western Finance Meetings, the Symposium on the Organization of Financial Trade and Exchange Mechanisms, the Symposium in Tribute to Larry Fisher, Baruch College, Georgetown University, the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the SEC, and Paul Seguin (the referee), for helpful comments and suggestions on earlier versions of this paper.1

Journal of Financial Economics 1998 50(2), 231-252
This article examines late trade reporting on the Nasdaq National Market System. A substantial number of trades are reported out-of-sequence on both absolute levels and relative to the combined centralized exchanges. We find minimal support for NASD permitted reasons for the late trade reporting. Evidence suggests that market makers could use late trade reporting to manage the release of information. This evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that the delayed reporting of trades is neither a random occurrence nor fully explainable by factors outside the market maker's control.

An empirical investigation of the impact of ‘antitakeover’ amendments on common stock prices

Journal of Financial Economics 1983 11(1-4), 361-399
‘Antitakeover’ amendments are amendments to a corporation's charter that impede the ability of an ‘outsider’ to gain control of the firm. A number of individuals and institutions have onjected to such amendments on the grounds that they are not in the best interests of the shareholders of the firms that adopt them. This paper employs event-time methodology to investigate the impact of antitakeover amendments on the common stock prices of firms that adopt them. The results indicate that the announcement of such amendments is associated with a positive revaluation of stock price. Contrary to the concerns of their critics, we conclude that antitakeover amendments are proposed by managers who seek to increase the value of the firm and are approved by stockholders who share that objective.

Financial market frictions and diversification

Journal of Financial Economics 2018 127(1), 21-50
We find new facts that relate the evolution of firm scope to the changing frictions in external capital markets over the last three decades. We find that large, diversified publicly traded firms increase their scope during times of high external capital market frictions, such as in the recent Great Recession. Moreover, during these times firms diversify their investment needs and cash flow across industries. We also find similar phenomena outside diversified public firms. Examining the mergers and acquisitions activity of stand-alone and diversified private firms, we uncover similar patterns. In aggregate data, we find that the composition of mergers shifts from focused to diversifying and back with changes in external market conditions. Our evidence is broadly consistent with the notion that firms diversify their scope in response to tightening in external capital markets.

The ownership and trading of debt claims in Chapter 11 restructurings

Journal of Financial Economics 2016 119(2), 316-335 open access
Using a novel data set that covers individual debt claims against 136 bankrupt US companies and includes information on a subset of claims transfers, we provide new empirical insight regarding how a firm’s debt ownership relates to bankruptcy outcomes. Firms with higher debt concentration at the start of the case are more likely to file prearranged bankruptcy plans, to move quickly through the restructuring process, and to emerge successfully as independent going concerns. Moreover, higher ownership concentration within a debt class is associated with higher recovery rates to that class. Trading of claims during bankruptcy concentrates ownership further, but this trading is not associated with subsequent improvements in bankruptcy outcomes and could, at the margin, increase the likelihood of liquidation.

Suspect CEOs, unethical culture, and corporate misbehavior

Journal of Financial Economics 2015 117(1), 98-121
We show that firms with Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) who personally benefit from options backdating are more likely to engage in other corporate misbehaviors, suggestive of an unethical corporate culture. These firms are more likely to commit financial fraud to overstate earnings. They acquire more private companies, which could perpetuate their frauds, and their acquisitions are met with lower market responses. These misbehaviors are concentrated in firms with externally hired suspect CEOs, consistent with outside CEOs having greater discretion to shape firm culture. The costs of these misbehaviors are reflected in larger stock price declines during a market correction and increased CEO replacement.

The cross section of expected holding period returns and their dynamics: A present value approach

Journal of Financial Economics 2015 116(3), 505-525 open access
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and return on equity—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that firm-level expected returns and expected profitability are time-varying but highly persistent and that forecasts of holding period returns strongly predict the cross section of future returns up to three years ahead. We show a highly significant predictive pooled regression slope for future quarterly returns of 0.86. The popular factor-based expected return models have either an insignificant or a significantly negative association with future returns. In supplemental analyses, we show that these forecasts are also informative of the time series variation in aggregate conditions. For a representative firm, the slope of the conditional expected return curve is more positive in good times, when expected short-run returns are relatively low, and the model-implied forecaster of aggregate returns exhibits modest predictive ability. Collectively, we provide a simple, theoretically motivated, and practically useful approach to estimating multi-period-ahead expected returns.

Firms and their distressed banks: lessons from the Norwegian banking crisis

Journal of Financial Economics 2003 67(1), 81-112
We use the near-collapse of the Norwegian banking system during the period 1988–1991 to measure the impact of bank distress announcements on the stock prices of firms maintaining a relationship with a distressed bank. Although banks experienced large and permanent downward revisions in their equity value during the event period, firms maintaining relationships with these banks faced only small and temporary changes, on average, in stock price. Firms with access to unused liquid bank funds and firms that issued equity just prior to the crisis experience relatively high abnormal returns. Overall, the aggregate impact of bank distress appears small.

Breadth of ownership and stock returns

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 66(2-3), 171-205
We develop a stock market model with differences of opinion and short-sales constraints. When breadth is low—i.e., when few investors have long positions—this signals that the short-sales constraint is binding tightly, and that prices are high relative to fundamentals. Thus reductions in breadth should forecast lower returns. Using data on mutual fund holdings, we find that stocks whose change in breadth in the prior quarter is in the lowest decile of the sample underperform those in the top decile by 6.38% in the twelve months after formation. Adjusting for size, book-to-market, and momentum, the figure is 4.95%.

Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices

Journal of Financial Economics 2001 61(3), 345-381
We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have experienced (1) an increase in trading volume relative to trend over the prior six months, consistent with the model of Hong and Stein (NBER Working Paper, 1999), and (2) positive returns over the prior 36 months, which fits with a number of theories, most notably Blanchard and Watson's (Crises in Economic and Financial Structure. Lexington Books, Lexington, MA, 1982, pp. 295–315) rendition of stock-price bubbles. Analogous results also obtain when we attempt to forecast the skewness of the aggregate stock market, though our statistical power in this case is limited.

Innovation and capital

Journal of Financial Economics 2025 169, 104029
Using a regime change in the commercialization of university innovation in 1980 that strongly increased university incentives to patent and license discoveries, we document that an increase in the supply of commercializable innovation attracts venture capital investment to the region. The Bayh-Dole Act shifted ownership of intellectual property stemming from federally-funded research from the federal government to universities, spurring technology transfer into the local area. Because universities have different technological strengths, each local area surrounding a university experienced an increase after 1980 in commercializable innovation relevant to particular sets of industries which differed widely across university counties. Comparing industries within a county that were more versus less related to the local university's innovative strengths, we show that venture capital dollars after 1980 flowed systematically towards geographic areas and industries affected most by the sudden influx of commercializable innovation from universities. These results persist even when controlling for ex ante geographic and industry distributions of corporate patenting and prior venture financing. The findings support the notion that increased supply of commercializable innovation serves to draw private capital investment to a region.