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Outside directors and the adoption of poison pills

Journal of Financial Economics 1994 35(3), 371-390
We find that the average stock-market reaction to announcements of poison pills is positive when the board has a majority of outside directors and negative when it does not. The probability that a subsequent control contest is associated with an auction is also positively related to the fraction of outsiders on the board. These results are largely driven by directors who are retired executives from other companies. The evidence suggests that outside directors serve the interests of shareholders.

The expected value premium☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 87(2), 269-280
Fama and French [2002. The equity premium. Journal of Finance 57, 637–659] estimate the equity premium using dividend growth rates to measure expected rates of capital gain. We apply their method to study the value premium. From 1945 to 2005, the expected value premium is on average 6.1% per annum, consisting of an expected dividend growth component of 4.4% and an expected dividend price ratio component of 1.7%. Unlike the equity premium, the value premium has been largely stable over the last half century.

An extrapolative model of house price dynamics

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 126(1), 147-170
A model in which homebuyers make a modest approximation leads house prices to display three features present in the data but usually missing from rational models: momentum at one-year horizons, mean reversion at five-year horizons, and excess longer-term volatility relative to fundamentals. Approximating buyers assume that past prices reflect only contemporaneous demand, just like professional economists who use trends in housing prices to infer trends in housing demand. Consistent with survey evidence, this approximation leads buyers to expect increases in the market value of their homes after recent house price increases.

Estimating affine multifactor term structure models using closed-form likelihood expansions☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2010 98(1), 113-144
We develop and implement a technique for closed-form maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of multifactor affine yield models. We derive closed-form approximations to likelihoods for nine Dai and Singleton (2000) affine models. Simulations show our technique very accurately approximates true (but infeasible) MLE. Using US Treasury data, we estimate nine affine yield models with different market price of risk specifications. MLE allows non-nested model comparison using likelihood ratio tests; the preferred model depends on the market price of risk. Estimation with simulated and real data suggests our technique is much closer to true MLE than Euler and quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) methods.

Tax shelters and corporate debt policy

Journal of Financial Economics 2006 81(3), 563-594
We gather a unique sample of 44 tax shelter cases to investigate the magnitude of tax shelter activity and whether participating in a shelter is related to corporate debt policy. The average annual deduction produced by the shelters in our sample is very large, equaling approximately nine percent of asset value. These deductions are more than three times as large as interest deductions for comparable companies. The firms in our sample use less debt when they engage in tax sheltering. Compared to companies with similar pre-shelter debt ratios, the debt ratios of firms engaged in tax shelters fall by about 8%. The tax shelter firms in our sample appear underlevered if shelters are ignored but do not appear underlevered once shelters are considered.

The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity

Journal of Financial Economics 1996 41(2), 193-229
We study industry-level patterns in takeover and restructuring activity during the 1982–1989 period. Across 51 industries, we find significant differences in both the rate and time-series clustering of these activities. The interindustry patterns in the rate of takeovers and restructurings are directly related to the economic shocks borne by the sample industries. These results support the argument that much of the takeover activity during the 1980s was driven by broad fundamental factors and have general implications for the stock price spillover effects of takeover announcements, corporate performance following takeovers, and the timing of takeover waves.

Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns

Journal of Financial Economics 1996 41(3), 401-439
We find that the determinants of the cross-section of expected stock returns are stable in their identity and influence from period to period and from country to country. Out-of-sample predictions of expected return are strongly and consistently accurate. Two findings distinguish this paper from others in the contemporary literature: First, stocks with higher expected and realized rates of return are unambiguously lower in risk than stocks with lower returns. Second, the important determinants of expected stock returns are strikingly common to the major equity markets of the world. Overall, the results seem to reveal a major failure in the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.

Liquidation costs and capital structure

Journal of Financial Economics 1995 39(1), 45-69
We investigate the relation between liquidation costs of assets and composition of capital structure for firms that reorganized under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code. Firms with high liquidation costs emerge from Chapter 11 with relatively low debt ratios. The debt of these firms is more likely to be public and unsecured, and to have less restrictive covenant terms; these firms are also more likely to raise new equity capital. Assets with high liquidation costs thus lead firms to choose capital structures that make financial distress less likely.

The investment opportunity set and corporate financing, dividend, and compensation policies

Journal of Financial Economics 1992 32(3), 263-292
We examine explanations for corporate financing-, dividend-, and compensation-policy choices. We document robust empirical relations among corporate policy decisions and various firm characteristics. Our evidence suggests contracting theories are more important in explaining cross-sectional variation in observed financial, dividend, and compensation policies than either tax-based or signaling theories.

The seemingly anomalous price behavior of Royal Dutch/Shell and Unilever N.V./PLC

Journal of Financial Economics 1990 26(1), 123-141
We examine two Anglo-Dutch groups the shares of whose parents trade on several international exchanges. Within each group, the parents' corporate charters mandate the division of cash flows available for distribution. This implies a specific ratio for the market prices of their securities. We document persistent deviations from these ratios on both the New York and London exchanges. The direction and magnitude of the mispricing are common to both pairs of stocks and both markets. Nevertheless, we find no evidence of profitable intra- or intermarket trading rules.