Knowledge that Transforms

We study how the presence of short sellers affects the incentives of the insiders to trade on negative information. We show it induces insiders to sell more (shares from their existing stakes) and trade faster to preempt the potential competition from short sellers. An experiment and instrumental variable analysis confirm this causal relationship. The effects are stronger for “opportunistic” (i.e., more informed) insider trades and when short sellers׳ attention is high. Return predictability of insider sales only occurs in stocks with high short-selling potential, suggesting that short sellers indirectly enhance the speed of information dissemination by accelerating trading by insiders.

We compare the payout policies of US industrials and banks over the past 30 years to better understand dividends, especially for banks. For industrials, dividends grow strongly after 2002, when the declining propensity to pay reverses. Banks have a higher and more stable propensity to pay dividends and resist cutting dividends as the 2007–2008 financial crisis begins. Before the crisis, increases in repurchases push payouts to historic levels. These findings are broadly consistent with the idea that banks use dividends to signal financial strength while agency costs of free cash flow better explain industrial payouts.

We analyze the financing and liquidation decisions of firms that face a labor market with search frictions. By inducing bankruptcy, debt can facilitate the process of creative destruction (i.e., the elimination of inefficient firms and the creation of new firms) but can also lead to excessive liquidation and unemployment in particular, during economic downturns. Within this setting, we examine policy interventions that influence the firms׳ financing and liquidation choices. We consider the role of monetary policy, which can reduce debt burdens during economy-wide downturns, and tax policy, which can influence the incentives of firms to use debt financing.

Regulators globally are concerned that dark trading harms price discovery. We show that dark trades are less informed than lit trades. High levels of dark trading increase adverse selection risk on the lit exchange by increasing the concentration of informed traders. Using both high- and low-frequency measures of informational efficiency we find that low levels of non-block dark trading are benign or even beneficial for informational efficiency, but high levels are harmful. In contrast, we find no evidence that block trades in the dark impede price discovery.

We develop a theory of leveraged buyout (LBO) activity based on two elements: the ability of private equity-owned firms to borrow against their sponsors׳ reputation with creditors and externalities in sponsors׳ reputations due to competition and club formation. In equilibrium, the two sources of value creation in LBOs, operational improvements and financing, are complements. Moreover, sponsors that never add operational value cannot add value through financing either. Club deals are beneficial ex post by allowing low-reputation bidders with high valuations to borrow reputation from high-reputation bidders with low valuations, but they can destroy value by reducing bidders׳ investment in reputation. Unlike leverage of independent firms, driven only by firm-specific factors, buyout leverage is driven by economy-wide and sponsor-specific factors.

We investigate the dual notions that “dumb money” exacerbates well-known stock return anomalies and “smart money” attenuates these anomalies. We find that aggregate flows to mutual funds (dumb money) appear to exacerbate cross-sectional mispricing, particularly for growth, accrual, and momentum anomalies. In contrast, hedge fund flows (smart money) appear to attenuate aggregate mispricing. Our results suggest that aggregate flows to mutual funds can have real adverse allocation effects in the stock market and that aggregate flows to hedge funds contribute to the correction of cross-sectional mispricing.

Investors are reluctant to trade in the high-information-asymmetry days before earnings announcements. We show that the decrease in liquidity trading before announcements is asymmetric. We analyze buy and sell orders of investors with passive investment strategies, and find they do not reduce their sales as much as their purchases in the days before announcements. Investors needing liquidity sell stocks at a discount relative to the post-announcement price, and these preannouncement liquidity sales are a significant driver of the average positive returns, or return premium, known to characterize announcement days.

We develop a model of interbank lending and borrowing with counterparty risk. The model has two key ingredients. First, liquidity in the banking sector is endogenous, so there is an opportunity cost of holding liquid assets. Second, banks are privately informed about the risk of their long-term assets, which can lead to adverse selection and high interest rates in the interbank market. We identify a novel form of a market break-down, which can lead to liquidity hoarding. It arises because adverse selection in the interbank market changes the opportunity cost of holding liquidity. We use the model to shed light on developments in interbank markets prior to and during the 2007–09 financial crisis, as well as the effectiveness of policy interventions aimed at restoring interbank market activity.

Gross profit scaled by book value of total assets predicts the cross section of average returns. Novy-Marx (2013) concludes that it outperforms other measures of profitability such as bottom line net income, cash flows, and dividends. One potential explanation for the measure׳s predictive ability is that its numerator (gross profit) is a cleaner measure of economic profitability. An alternative explanation lies in the measure׳s deflator. We find that net income equals gross profit in predictive power when they have consistent deflators. Deflating profit by the book value of total assets results in a variable that is the product of profitability and the ratio of the market value of equity to the book value of total assets, which is priced. We then construct an alternative measure of profitability, operating profitability, which better matches current expenses with current revenue. This measure exhibits a far stronger link with expected returns than either net income or gross profit. It predicts returns as far as ten years ahead, seemingly inconsistent with irrational pricing explanations.

We find strong evidence that three key dimensions of national culture (trust, hierarchy, and individualism) affect merger volume and synergy gains. The volume of cross-border mergers is lower when countries are more culturally distant. In addition, greater cultural distance in trust and individualism leads to lower combined announcement returns. These findings are robust to year and country-level fixed effects, time-varying country-pair and deal-level variables, as well as instrumental variables for cultural differences based on genetic and somatic differences. The results are the first large-scale evidence that cultural differences have substantial impacts on multiple aspects of cross-border mergers.