Knowledge that Transforms

High-frequency reversals are an economically important characteristic of the returns to tradeable claims to the market portfolio. This paper demonstrates that short-horizon negative autocorrelation can arise in a tractable model of agents with tournament-type preferences. Intuitively, investors act as if they are averse to missing out on a trend, causing the risk premium to move strongly counter to realized returns. The model features fully rationalizing agents, complete markets, and no exogenous transaction demand. Plausible parameterizations can match the autocorrelation in the data. Supporting evidence on novel first and second moment implications is presented.

The nature of the dependence between discontinuities in prices and contemporaneous discontinuities in volatility (co-jumps) has been reported by many as being elusive, in terms of sign, magnitude, and statistical significance. Using a novel identification strategy in continuous time relying on trade-level information for spot variance estimation, as well as infinitesimal cross-moments, we document that a sizeable proportion of discontinuous changes in prices are associated with strongly anti-correlated, contemporaneous, discontinuous changes in volatility. Assuming a possibly nonmonotonic pricing kernel, we illustrate the equilibrium implications of price and volatility co-jumps for return and variance risk premia.

Many have argued that overoptimistic thinking on the part of lenders helps fuel credit booms. We use new micro-data on mutual funds’ holdings of securitizations to examine which investors are susceptible to such boom-time thinking. We show that firsthand experience plays a key role in shaping investors’ beliefs. During the 2003–2007 mortgage boom, inexperienced fund managers loaded up on securitizations linked to nonprime mortgages, accumulating twice the holdings of more seasoned managers. Moreover, inexperienced managers who personally experienced severe or recent adverse investment outcomes behaved more like seasoned managers. Training and institutional memory can serve as partial substitutes for personal experience.

We develop a new option pricing framework that tightly integrates with how institutional investors manage options positions. The framework starts with the near-term dynamics of the implied volatility surface and derives no-arbitrage constraints on its current shape. Within this framework, we show that just like option implied volatilities, realized and expected volatilities can also be constructed specific to, and different across, option contracts. Applying the new theory to the S&P 500 index time series and options data, we extract volatility risk and risk premium from the volatility surfaces, and find that the extracted risk premium significantly predicts future stock returns.

We examine whether values of equity options traded on individual firms are sensitive to the firm’s capital structure. We estimate the compound option (CO) model, which views equity as an option on the firm. Compared with the Black-Scholes model, the CO model with a term structure of volatility (TSV) reduces pricing errors by 20% on average. The compound option effect is particularly strong for highly levered firms and long-term options, in which the pricing improvement is up to 70% of the Black-Scholes error. Without a TSV, the CO model reduces pricing errors of in-the-money options by 12.74% on average and for out-of-the-money by 9.22%. We show that the CO model implies a market value of firm leverage and allows imputation of the firm’s implied volatility, both of which have potential applications in corporate finance.

This paper introduces a measure that captures the premium in bond prices that is due to the value of creditor control. We estimate the premium as the difference in the bond price and an equivalent synthetic bond without control rights that is constructed using credit default swap (CDS) contracts. We find empirically that this premium increases as firm credit quality decreases and around important credit events such as defaults, bankruptcies, and covenant violations. The increase is greatest for bonds most pivotal to changes in control. Changes in bond and CDS liquidity do not appear to drive increases in the premium.

This paper provides the first empirical evidence of the externalities of credit default swaps (CDS). We find that a firm's leverage is lower when a larger proportion of its revenue is derived from CDS-referenced customers. This finding is robust to alternative samples and measures, placebo tests, and the selection of customers by suppliers. Moreover, firms affected by customer CDS trading issue equity to lower leverage, and their equity issuance costs are lower. These findings are consistent with the view that CDS trading on customers improves the information environment for suppliers. Therefore, while many firms are not directly linked to CDS trading, CDS trading on their customers has spillover effects on these firms’ financial policies.

We use a data set of sell-side analysts' scenario-based equity valuation estimates to examine whether analysts can assess the state-contingent risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts’ scenario-based valuations captures the riskiness of operations and predicts the absolute magnitude of long-run valuation errors and future changes in firm fundamentals.We also show that analysts’ assessment of fundamental risk and its predictive ability systematically improved after the financial crisis, consistent with the macroeconomic shock raising analysts’ awareness of firms’ systematic risk exposures.

We study the liquidity properties of private equity cash flows using data from 837 buyout and venture capital funds from 1984 to 2010. Most cash flow variation at a point in time is diversifiable — either idiosyncratic to a given fund or explained by the fund’s age. Both capital calls and distributions also have a procyclical systematic component. Distributions are more sensitive than calls, implying procyclical aggregate net cash flows. A consequence is that the well-known finding that funds raised in hot markets underperform in absolute terms is sharply attenuated when comparing to public equities. Consistent with a liquidity premium for calling capital in bad times, we find that funds with a relatively high propensity to do so perform better in both absolute and relative terms. Venture capital cash flows and performance are considerably more cyclical than buyout, and the links between cyclical cash flows and performance are likewise stronger.

Evidence of excessive comovement among stocks following index additions (Barberis, Shleifer, and Wurgler, 2005) and stock splits (Green and Hwang, 2009) challenges traditional finance theory. We show that the bivariate regressions in this literature provide little information about the economic magnitude of excess comovement, with coefficients that are sensitive to unrelated factors. Using robust univariate regressions and matched control samples, almost all evidence of excess comovement disappears. In both examples, the stocks exhibit strong returns prior to the event, akin to momentum winners. We document that winner stocks exhibit increases in betas, generating much of the apparent excess comovement.