We test the pecking order theory of corporate leverage on a broad cross-section of publicly traded American firms for 1971 to 1998. Contrary to the pecking order theory, net equity issues track the financing deficit more closely than do net debt issues. While large firms exhibit some aspects of pecking order behavior, the evidence is not robust to the inclusion of conventional leverage factors, nor to the analysis of evidence from the 1990s. Financing deficit is less important in explaining net debt issues over time for firms of all sizes.

Agency theory implies that asset ownership and decision authority are complements. Using 1998 data from Texas commercial banks, we test whether the likelihood of local ownership of bank offices increases with the importance of granting local managers greater decision authority (for example, due to location or customer base). Our empirical evidence is consistent with this hypothesis. It suggests that complementarities between strategy and organizational structure can foster differentiation among firms in terms of location, customers, and products. It also supports the growing view that small locally-owned banks have a comparative advantage over large banks within specific environments.

In periods characterized by diminished public market financing, small biotechnology firms appear to be more likely to fund R&D through alliances with major corporations rather than with internal funds (raised through the capital markets). We consider 200 alliance agreements entered into by biotechnology firms between 1980 and 1995. Agreements signed during periods of limited external equity financing are more likely to assign the bulk of the control to the larger corporate partner, and are significantly less successful than other alliances. These agreements are also disproportionately likely to be renegotiated if financial market conditions subsequently improve.

We present a model of mergers and acquisitions based on stock market misvaluations of the combining firms. The key ingredients of the model are the relative valuations of the merging firms and the market's perception of the synergies from the combination. The model explains who acquires whom, the choice of the medium of payment, the valuation consequences of mergers, and merger waves. The model is consistent with available empirical findings about characteristics and returns of merging firms, and yields new predictions as well.

This paper provides firm- and industry-level evidence of the effects of capital structure on product market outcomes for a large cross-section of industries over a number of years. The analysis uses shocks to aggregate demand as surrogates for exogenous changes in the product market environment. I find that debt financing has a negative impact on firm (relative-to-industry) sales growth in industries in which rivals are relatively unlevered during recessions, but not during booms. In contrast, no such effects are observed for firms competing in high-debt industries. At the industry level, markups are more countercyclical when industry debt is high. The cyclical dynamics I find for firm sales growth and for industry markups are consistent with Chevalier and Scharfstein's (American Economic Review (1996)) prediction that firms which rely heavily on external financing are more likely to cut their investment in market share building in response to negative shocks to demand and that the competitive outcomes resulting from such actions depend on the financial structures of their industry rivals

IPO volume fluctuates substantially over time. This paper compares the extent to which the aggregate capital demands of private firms, the adverse-selection costs of issuing equity, and the level of investor optimism can explain these fluctuations. Empirical tests include both aggregate and industry-level time-series regressions using proxies for the above factors and an analysis of the relation between post-IPO stock returns and IPO volume. Results indicate that firms’ demands for capital and investor sentiment are important determinants of IPO volume, in both statistical and economic terms. Adverse-selection costs are also statistically significant, but their economic effect appears small

This paper proposes a framework for corporate security valuation based on path-dependent, barrier option models instead of the commonly used path-independent approach. We argue that path dependency is an intrinsic and fundamental characteristic of corporate securities because equity can be knocked out whenever a legally binding barrier is breached. A direct implication of this framework is that equity will be priced as a down-and-out call option. We provide empirical validation of the barrier model by showing that implied barriers are statistically and economically significant for a large cross-section of industrial firms. Additional robustness tests confirm that barriers remain significant over a wide range of input variable estimates. And finally, we apply the barrier option framework to bankruptcy prediction and find that implied failure probabilities dominate Z-scores in most cases

The onset of the Asian financial crisis in Malaysia reduced the expected value of government subsidies to politically connected firms, accounting for roughly 9% of the estimated 60 billion loss in their market value from July 1997 to August 1998. Firing the Deputy Prime Minister and imposing capital controls in September 1998 primarily benefited firms with strong ties to Prime Minister Mahathir, accounting for roughly 32% of these firms’ estimated 5 billion gain in market value during September 1998. The evidence suggests Malaysian capital controls provided a screen behind which favored firms could be supported.

This paper provides new evidence of how macroeconomic conditions affect capital structure choice. We model firms’ target capital structures as a function of macroeconomic conditions and firm-specific variables. We split our sample based on a measure of financial constraints. Target leverage is counter-cyclical for the relatively unconstrained sample, but pro-cyclical for the relatively constrained sample. Macroeconomic conditions are significant for issue choice for unconstrained firms but less so for constrained firms. Our results support the hypothesis that unconstrained firms time their issue choice to coincide with periods of favorable macroeconomic conditions, while constrained firms do not

This paper examines the relation between the institutional structures of advanced OECD countries and the comparative growth and investment of 27 industries in those countries over the period 1970 to 1995. The paper reports a strong relation between the structure of countries’ financial systems, the characteristics of industries, and the growth and investment of industries in different countries