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The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity

Journal of Financial Economics 1996 41(2), 193-229
We study industry-level patterns in takeover and restructuring activity during the 1982–1989 period. Across 51 industries, we find significant differences in both the rate and time-series clustering of these activities. The interindustry patterns in the rate of takeovers and restructurings are directly related to the economic shocks borne by the sample industries. These results support the argument that much of the takeover activity during the 1980s was driven by broad fundamental factors and have general implications for the stock price spillover effects of takeover announcements, corporate performance following takeovers, and the timing of takeover waves.

Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns

Journal of Financial Economics 1996 41(3), 401-439
We find that the determinants of the cross-section of expected stock returns are stable in their identity and influence from period to period and from country to country. Out-of-sample predictions of expected return are strongly and consistently accurate. Two findings distinguish this paper from others in the contemporary literature: First, stocks with higher expected and realized rates of return are unambiguously lower in risk than stocks with lower returns. Second, the important determinants of expected stock returns are strikingly common to the major equity markets of the world. Overall, the results seem to reveal a major failure in the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.