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Shattered housing

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 156, 103835
Do negative housing shocks lead to persistent changes in household attitudes toward housing and homeownership? We use the residential destruction of Germany during World War II (WWII) as a quasi-experiment and exploit the reasonably exogenous region-by-cohort variation in destruction exposure. We find that WWII-experiencing cohorts from high destruction regions are significantly less likely to be homeowners decades later, controlling for regional differences and household characteristics. Underlying this effect are changes in household attitudes toward homeownership that also extend to preferences for housing consumption, with little or no support for risk preferences, income and wealth effects, or supply-side factors.

Brexit and the contraction of syndicated lending

Journal of Financial Economics 2021 141(1), 66-82
We document a 24% decline in loan issuances in the UK syndicated loan market after the Brexit vote relative to a set of comparable loan markets. The decline in lending is driven by a pervasive reduction in demand by UK firms. Changes in GDP forecast around the Brexit vote explain about 61% of the decline in lending. We do not find evidence, however, that the United Kingdom loses its attractiveness as a financial center for cross-border lending. Our results point to the resilience of global financial centers in the face of large unexpected shocks.

Political ideology and international capital allocation

Journal of Financial Economics 2023 148(2), 150-173 open access
Does investors’ political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings—syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds—to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by U.S. institutional investors. Ideological alignment on both economic and social issues plays a role. Our empirical strategy ensures direct economic effects of foreign elections or government ties between countries are not driving the result. Ideological distance between countries also explains variation in bilateral investment. Combined, our findings imply ideological alignment is an important, omitted factor in models of international capital allocation.