Knowledge that Transforms

When banks act as delegated monitors of borrowing firms in a finite economy, two factors help banks dominate direct lending: portfolio diversification, which increases with bank size, and bank capitalization, which diminishes with size. With free entry into banking, intermediated equilibria are possible even when direct lending cannot overcome autarky. There are usually multiple intermediated equilibria; these may not be Pareto-ranked by bank size, since smaller banks are better captialized and may Pareto-dominate larger banks. Even when one large bank would be most efficient, assigning a monopoly bank charter to coordinate beliefs on the single bank equilibrium may be unattractive: in some cases, a monopoly bank cannot overcome autarky even though free-entry banking can, and in other cases, the monopoly bank reduces production from the direct lending level. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G21, L13, O16.

This paper examines cross-subsidy, moral hazard, and bank liability issues related to the provision of federal deposit insurance by "rerunning" its implementation, i.e., determining fair premium values, over the period 1927-1932. The pre-1933 period was characterized by historically high asset-price volatility, a large number of bank failures, and a weak federal safety net. In this economic context, we find a high degree of self-insurance on the part of the banks in our sample, both in terms of higher overall capital levels and a strong correlation between capital levels and asset volatility. Potentially large, regional cross-subsidies among banks were also found. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: G21.

We show that the pattern of short-term negative serial covariances for stock returns over different return measurement intervals is consistent with the implications of inventory-based microstructure models. We develop different testable implications of these models and document supporting evidence. Our findings indicate that to a large extent the short-horizon return revearsals can be explained by dealer-inventory-related market microstructure effects. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G14, G20.

Controversial econometric studies of mortgage data show that mortgage loan applications by some minorities are denied more frequently than are applications by whites with similar observable default risk factors. But recent evidence indicates that minority borrowers also default more frequently than whites with similar observable risk. This paper presents a simple equilibrium model of discriminatory credit rationing and finds parametric restrictions consistent with both these empirical findings. However, in this model, proposed antidiscrimination policies have surprising side effects. Thus, policy analysts accepting this empirical evidence should not expect to derive model-free conclusions about the effects of proposed policies. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G21, G28, D63.

I show that dual trading reduces the net order flow and market depth. Trading volume and gross (of commission fees) profits of informed traders are lower with dual trading, while trading volume and gross losses of uninformed traders are unaffected. When the broker′s commission income is independent of the customer′s trading volume, the competitive commission fee is lower with dual trading. The utility of uninformed traders (net of commission fees) increases with dual trading, while the net profits of informed traders decrease. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G12, G13, D82.

We develop an integrated model in which a risk-neutral informed trader optimally chooses any combination of a market buy, a market sell, a limit buy including the limit buy price, and a limit sell including the limit sell price. Limit orders undercut the market maker and generate transactions inside the bid-ask spread. The informed trader exploits limit orders by submitting market orders even when the terminal value is inside the spread. When the terminal value is above the bid, a combined market buy-limit sell is more profitable than a market buy only. We obtain an analytic solution. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D40, D82, G12, G14.

Banks are modeled as Bryant/Diamond-Dybvig "insurers" against the risk of early consumption. Consumption claims must be verified by clearing and settlement. A clearinghouse does this efficiently as long as banks are sufficiently liquid. If liquidity requirements cannot be enforced against all banks then the threat of panics is necessary to induce banks to hold sufficient liquidity. If the clearinghouse can issue emergency currency, then banks can coexist with less liquid institutions. However, if banks′ return to holding reserves is low during "normal times," then there must be times when the return to liquidity is abnormally high. We associate these episodes with the panics of the National Banking Era. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 042, 311, 314.

We contrast equilibria in loan markets with bilateral bank-borrower ties, in which proprietary technological knowledge of borrowers is not revealed to product market competitors, with equilibria under multilateral financing in which such knowledge may be shared among competing borrowing firms. Using each of these two institutional arrangements, we examine the conditions for existence of equilibrium, its ex ante optimality, and borrowing firms′ incentives to engage in private costly research. Also explored is the potential for lending banks to coordinate postinvention collusion in product markets by multiple inventing firms. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 310, 312, 314.

This paper extends the standard single-period model of deposit insurance to a mutliperiod setting. It incorporates a variety of features describing bank and regulator behavior, such as endogenous capital adjustments and regulatory forbearance. Budgetary costs of deposit insurance are found using contingent claims techniques. We show how the market value of a bank′s net worth, a critical input of the model, can be estimated using accounting cash flow data and information from aggregate bank stock prices. Using Call Report data on U.S. commercial banks, we provide empirical estimates of the aggregate cost of deposit insurance under alternative regulatory policies. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G13, G21, G28, H61.