Knowledge that Transforms

This paper explores the effects of an LTV limit on constrained borrowers using comprehensive loan- and borrower-level data from Brazil. LTV limits entail identification challenges because constrained borrowers are no longer directly observed after the policy is implemented. In this paper, partially observed treatment status is addressed by an adjusted difference-in-difference method, focusing on the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) borrowers (i.e. those that would violate the LTV limit if unconstrained). In the most affected segment, treated individuals cope with the new LTV limit by making higher down payments and also purchasing more affordable houses. They are also less likely to be in arrears, suggesting that LTV limits are effective macroprudential tools by lowering the risk of some originated housing loans.

We investigate whether lenders can realize informational synergies by simultaneously obtaining private information from different accounts of the same borrower. Synergies exist if such information is complementary to each other. We focus on consumer credit, using 3.5 million observations from checking accounts and credit card accounts of the same individuals during 2007–2014. First, activity from both accounts is complementary for estimating consumer default beyond credit scores, borrower characteristics and relationship characteristics. Checking accounts display warning indications about consumer default earlier and more accurately than credit card accounts. Second, decision errors are lower when lenders consider cross-product information. The evidence suggests significant informational synergies that are important for the supply and allocation of credit.

Examining bank behavior around Federal Reserve stress tests, we find that stress test banks increase capital ratios at the starting point for annual stress testing significantly more than non-stress test banks. These trends are completely reversed (and economically significant) in the other quarters. Further, the differences between stress test and non-stress test banks seen in stress test years do not occur in 2010, when the Fed did not conduct a stress test. Results show that, as they enter the stress test, stress test banks lower dividends significantly more than non-stress test banks. Finally, stress test banks spend significantly more on lobbying than non-stress test banks. The results suggest that stress test banks may be managing financial performance and investing in political spending to improve their chances of passing stress tests.

This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers. Policies targeting the loan-to-value ratio are found to have a larger impact on demand than policies targeting the debt-service ratio, such as amortization. In addition, we show that loan-to-value policies have a larger role to play in reducing default than income-based policies.

We examine the relation between banks’ liquidity risk and their willingness to supply capital to borrowers under previously committed credit lines. We show that during the collapse of the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market in the last quarter of 2007 and the first half of 2008, banks with higher exposure to ABCP conduits renegotiated significantly tougher conditions on the outstanding credit lines offered to borrowers in violation of a covenant. Specifically, we find that borrowers faced higher spreads over the prime rate and LIBOR as well as higher commitment fees on undrawn amounts. Our paper suggests that an increase in lender liquidity risk can bear financial implications for firms that use credit lines as an instrument of liquidity management.

We use a 2013 Norwegian policy reform to study how banks react to higher capital requirements and how these adjustments transmit to the real economy. Using bank balance sheet data, we document that banks raise capital ratios by reducing risk-weighted assets. Most of the reduction in risk-weighted assets is accounted for by a reduction in average risk weights. Consistent with this reduction in risk, we document a substantial decline in credit supply to the corporate sector relative to the household sector. We also show that banks react to higher requirements by increasing interest rates, consistent with the reduction in corporate credit growth being supply driven. Using administrative loan level tax data, we document a reduction in lending on the firm level. This is robust to controlling for firm fixed effects, thereby accounting for potential firm-bank matching. Finally, we find that the reduction in bank lending has a negative impact on firm employment growth and that this effect is driven by small firms.

This paper is a review of the literature on fintech and its interaction with banking. Included in fintech are innovations in payment systems (including cryptocurrencies), credit markets (including P2P lending), and insurance, with Blockchain-assisted smart contracts playing a role. The paper provides a definition of fintech, examines some statistics and stylized facts, and then reviews the theoretical and empirical literature. The review is organized around four main research questions. The paper summarizes our knowledge on these questions and concludes with questions for future research.

We propose and test a new explanation for forced CEO turnover, and examine its implications for the impact of firm performance on CEO turnover. Investors may disagree with management on optimal decisions due to heterogeneous prior beliefs. Theory suggests that such disagreement may be persistent and costly to firms; we document that this induces them to sometimes replace CEOs who investors disagree with, controlling for firm performance. A lower level of CEO-investor disagreement serves to partially “protect” CEOs from being fired, thus reducing turnover-performance sensitivity, which we also document. We also show that firms are more likely to hire an external CEO as a successor if disagreement with the departing CEO is higher. Disagreement declines following forced CEO turnover. Using various empirical strategies, we rule out other confounding interpretations of our findings. We conclude that disagreement, independently of firm performance, affects forced CEO turnover.

We analyze how two types of recently used prudential policies affected the supply of credit in the United States. First, we test whether the U.S. bank stress tests had any impact on the supply of mortgage credit. We find that initiation of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress tests in 2011 had a negative effect on the share of jumbo mortgage originations and approval rates at stress-tested banks, whereby banks with worse capital positions were impacted more negatively. Second, we analyze the impact of the 2013 Supervisory Guidance on Leveraged Lending and subsequent 2014 FAQ notice, which clarified expectations on the Guidance. We find that the institution-specific share of speculative-grade term-loan originations decreased notably at regulated banks after the FAQ notice, especially at banks with greater market share for such loans.

We examine the real effects of changes in bank mortgage loan underwriting standards by combining responses to the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, application information from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, and local housing market measures over 1990 to 2013. Tightened standards are associated with a 1 percentage point increase in denial rates and a 5% fall in loan issuance, controlling for applicant pool changes, but no change for predominantly-securitizing banks. In areas with more exposure to banks that have tightened standards, mortgage delinquency rates, house prices, new home sales, and residential construction employment fall substantially.