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Banks and shadow banks: Competitors or complements?

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 27, 118-131
Bank managers can buy risky assets through a regulated bank and through an off-balance sheet special purpose vehicle (SPV). The choice of the preferred entity depends on whether bank managers can lower the cost of SPV funding by guaranteeing SPV returns with bank proceeds. When there are no guarantees, using the SPV is more profitable for high levels of the minimum capital requirement, in which case the SPV crowds out the bank. Contrary, when bank managers guarantee SPV returns, the bank needs to operate for the SPV to take advantage of recourse to the bank’s balance sheet also when the capital requirement is high. The bank and the SPV intermediation become complements.

Did the securitization market freeze affect bank lending during the financial crisis? Evidence from a credit register

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 25, 54-76
Using data from the Italian Credit Register we identify the adverse effect of the freeze of the securitization market on bank lending during the crisis of 2007–2008. Applying a differences-in-differences estimation to data on firms that borrow from multiple banks, we single out credit supply by including firm fixed effects. Our results show that the degree to which banks tightened credit supply to nonfinancial firms is positively related to the share of loans they securitized before the crisis. The tightening translated into lower credit growth, higher interest rates, lower probability of accepting loan applications and higher probability of relationship termination. Firms were unable to fully compensate the negative credit supply shock, which suggests that the securitization freeze played a role in reducing aggregate credit availability.

Price effects of sovereign debt auctions in the euro-zone: The role of the crisis

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 25, 30-53 open access
We show that new public debt issues cause an auction cycle for Italian secondary-market debt, but not for German debt. The cycle is mainly observed for the crisis period since mid-2007 and is larger when the crisis, as measured by yield volatility and CDS spreads of primary dealers, is more intense. Volatility seems to be the main driving factor. The cycle is also present in secondary-market series with maturities close to the auctioned series. Our findings are consistent with the theory of primary dealers’ limited risk-bearing capacity. There is also weak evidence of spill-overs from foreign auctions to domestic markets.

When good investments go bad: The contraction in community bank lending after the 2008 GSE takeover

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 27, 68-88 open access
In September 2008, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were placed into conservatorship. The GSEs' equity prices dropped considerably in response, and, as a result, many banks that held sizable amounts of the preferred stock of the two GSEs recognized substantial losses. Fifteen failures and two mergers resulted. We treat these losses as plausibly exogenous, unanticipated, supply-side shocks to bank lending, as they are likely unrelated to demand-side factors that could affect lending, and because GSE investments were considered to be safe by banks, regulators, and rating agencies. As a result, this event allows us to examine the relationship between community bank condition and lending during the global financial crisis. We find that, following the shock, loan growth at exposed banks was about 2 percentage points lower than other banks.

Informal or formal financing? Evidence on the co-funding of Chinese firms

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 27, 31-50
Different modes of external finance provide heterogeneous benefits for the borrowing firms. Informal finance offers informational advantages whereas formal finance is scalable. Using unique survey data from China, we find that informal finance is associated with higher sales growth for small firms but lower sales growth for large firms. We identify a complementary effect between informal and formal finance for the sales growth of small firms, but not for large firms. Co-funding, thereby simultaneously using the informational advantage of informal finance and the scalability of formal finance, is therefore the optimal choice for small firms.

The dark side of liquidity creation: Leverage and systemic risk

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 28, 4-21
We consider a model in which the threat of bank liquidations by creditors as well as equity-based compensation incentives both discipline bankers, but with different consequences. Greater use of equity leads to lower ex-ante bank liquidity, whereas greater use of debt leads to a higher probability of inefficient bank liquidation. The bank's privately-optimal capital structure trades off these two costs. With uncertainty about aggregate risk, bank creditors learn from other banks’ liquidation decisions. Such inference can lead to contagious liquidations, some of which are inefficient; this is a negative externality that is ignored in privately-optimal bank capital structures. Thus, under plausible conditions, banks choose excessive leverage relative to the socially optimal level, providing a rationale for bank capital regulation. While a blanket regulatory forbearance policy can eliminate contagion, it also eliminates all market discipline. However, a regulator generating its own information about aggregate risk, rather than relying on market signals, can restore efficiency and market discipline by intervening selectively.

Credit rationing in small firm-bank relationships

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 26, 68-99
I study credit rationing in small firm-bank relationships by using a unique data set of matched loan applications and contracts. I establish the degree of credit rationing by relating a firm's requested loan amount to the bank's granted amount. In line with theoretical predictions, credit rationing is higher for opaque than transparent firms at the beginning of their bank relationships and decreases over time for both. After testing for several alternative explanations, the results suggest that information and incentive problems explain the observed credit rationing and its dynamics.

Cross trading by investment advisers: Implications for mutual fund performance

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 25, 99-130
Using a unique dataset we provide new evidence on the significant penalty on client fund performance due to conflicts of interest related to the cross trading (TCT) activities of mutual fund advisers: funds managed by advisers in the top TCT quintile significantly underperform funds managed by advisers in the bottom TCT quintile by 1% per year. Adviser incentives to engage in cross trading are directly related to their opportunities for generating revenues from affiliated trading operations. Additional tests suggest that the significantly higher trading commissions paid by client funds of high-TCT advisers are a major source of their under-performance.

Too much of a good thing? A theory of short-term debt as a sorting device

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 26, 100-114
This paper shows that the liquidity risk associated with short-term debt financing can be used to sort insolvent firms out of financial markets when their solvency risk is private information. Notwithstanding this sorting role of short-term debt, unregulated financial firms tend to choose an inefficiently short debt maturity structure. This inefficiency arises for two reasons. First, by issuing more short-term debt, low-risk firms reduce their expected funding costs. This leads to a misalignment of private and social incentives as firms fail to fully internalize the social costs of becoming illiquid. Second, while the sorting role of short-term debt is reflected in a decline of long-term interest rates when more short-term debt is issued, creditors’ inability to observe firms’ solvency risk leads to an excessive reduction of long-term interest rates. This further distorts firms’ funding choice towards short-term debt

Political foundations of the lender of last resort: A global historical narrative

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2016 28, 48-65 open access
This paper offers a historical perspective on the evolution of central banks as lenders of last resort (LOLR). Countries differ in the statutory powers of the LOLR, which is the outcome of a political bargain. Collateralized LOLR lending as envisioned by Bagehot (1873) requires five key legal and institutional preconditions, all of which required political agreement. LOLR mechanisms evolved to include more than collateralized lending. LOLRs established prior to World War II, with few exceptions, followed policies that can be broadly characterized as implementing “Bagehot's Principles”: seeking to preserve systemic financial stability rather than preventing the failure of particular banks, and limiting the amount of risk absorbed by the LOLR as much as possible when providing financial assistance. After World War II, and especially after the 1970s, generous deposit insurance and ad hoc bank bailouts became the norm. The focus of bank safety net policy changed from targeting systemic stability to preventing depositor loss and the failure of banks. Statutory powers of central banks do not change much over time, or correlate with country characteristics, instead reflecting idiosyncratic political histories