Knowledge that Transforms

Financial markets create endogenous systemic risk, the risk that a substantial fraction of the system ceases to function and collapses. Systemic risk can propagate through different mechanisms and channels of contagion. One important form of financial contagion arises from indirect interconnections between financial institutions mediated by financial markets. This indirect interconnection occurs when financial institutions invest in common assets and is referred to as overlapping portfolios. In this work we quantify systemic risk from indirect interconnections between financial institutions. Complete information of security holdings of major Mexican financial intermediaries and the ability to uniquely identify securities in their portfolios, allows us to represent the Mexican financial system as a bipartite network of securities and financial institutions. This makes it possible to quantify systemic risk arising from overlapping portfolios. We show that focusing only on direct interbank exposures underestimates total systemic risk levels by up to 50% under the assumptions of the model. By representing the financial system as a multi-layer network of direct interbank exposures (default contagion) and indirect external exposures (overlapping portfolios) we estimate the mutual influence of different channels of contagion. The method presented here is the first quantification of systemic risk on national scales that includes overlapping portfolios.

We examine the impact on firm cash holdings of uncertainty of uncertainty, measured as the ex post volatility of economic policy uncertainty. Using the news-based index developed by Baker et al. (2016) for twenty-two countries, we find that, when there is greater volatility of economic uncertainty, firms hold more cash. Our results are robust to controlling for a host of firm-level and country-level factors. Consistent with Baker et al. (2016), we consider that less economic policy uncertainty is associated with more investment; and so the real-option value of cash is sensitive to the possibility of a future desirability of investment. Therefore, when there is greater expected volatility of uncertainty, measured under rational expectations as the recent ex post volatility of uncertainty, firms will hold more cash. We also find that the volatility of economic policy uncertainty is much more economically significant in determining firm cash holdings than economic policy uncertainty itself. Therefore, our paper not only adds to the literature on uncertainty and cash holdings, but also, importantly, to the limited literature in finance on the impact of uncertainty of uncertainty.

This paper presents a novel approach to investigate and model the network of euro area banks’ large exposures within the global banking system. Drawing on a unique dataset, the paper, for the first time, documents the degree of interconnectedness and systemic risk of the euro area banking system based on bilateral linkages. We then develop a Contagion Mapping (CoMap) methodology to study contagion potential of an exogenous default shock via counterparty credit and funding risks. We construct contagion and vulnerability indices measuring respectively the systemic importance of banks and their degree of fragility. Decomposing the results into the respective contributions of credit and funding shocks provides insights to the nature of contagion which can be used to calibrate bank-specific capital and liquidity requirements and large exposures limits. We empirically confirm that tipping points shifting the euro area banking system from a less vulnerable state to a highly vulnerable state are a non-linear function of the combination of network structures and bank-specific characteristics.

We examine the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBAs). The results show that a higher degree of EPU at home retards the number and volume of inbound CBA deals. However, this effect is positively moderated by the host country’s better quality of institution, business environment and political risk. The bilateral acquirer-target country-pair investigation reveals that while higher EPU in the target’s domicile deters inbound CBAs, higher EPU in the acquirer’s nation is positively associated with a higher number and volume of outbound CBA deals. Finally, on the announcement of the deals, targets (acquirers) based in countries with a larger increase in EPU are associated with lower (more) stock returns than the targets (acquirers) based in countries with a smaller increase in EPU. These findings imply that countries aiming to attract cross-border investments should strive to mitigate economic policy-related uncertainties.

Is the asset management sector a source of financial instability? This paper develops a macroprudential stress test model which enables the quantification of systemic vulnerabilities due to fire sales in this sector. The model incorporates the flow-performance relationship as an additional funding shock in the model of Greenwood et al. (2015). Using data on US equity mutual funds for the period 2003–14, we quantify both fund-specific and system-wide (aggregate) vulnerabilities to fire sales over time. Our main finding is that the aggregate vulnerability, according to this propagation mechanism, is relatively small in comparison with values reported for banks. However, during periods of low market liquidity, the vulnerability of the system can become significant. Our paper also contributes to the ongoing discussion on the SIFI designation of Non-Bank Non-Insurer entities. For this purpose, we explore the determinants of individual funds’ vulnerability to systemic asset liquidations, highlighting the importance of size and portfolio illiquidity. Therefore, regulators should monitor structural vulnerabilities in the fund sector arising through liquidity transformation.

We study the timing of the European Corporate Sector Purchase Program and its direct effect on corporate financing decisions. Consistent with the goal of reducing credit premia, more timely purchases are observed for eligible bonds characterized by higher credit risk. Firms effectively targeted increase their relative use of market debt and the maturity of newly issued bonds more than eligible but not (yet) targeted issuers. The estimated effect is not driven by the verified relation between selection and credit risk. The program has fostered the ability to tap credit markets directly especially for eligible corporations whose bonds are actually purchased.

Until the 1970s, both banks and nonfinancial corporations relied on performance targets linked to their earnings per share (EPS). Over the next few decades, banks rapidly changed to emphasize return on equity (ROE) as a performance target. Investors seem aware of this change because ROE growth (EPS growth) better explains banks’ (nonfinancials’) stock market values. Also, manager compensation linked to ROE is more common for banks than for nonfinancials. This paper presents a model of a bank subject to fixed-rate deposit insurance and facing increasing competition that erodes its charter value. When the bank chooses its capital to maximize its shareholder value, its performance based on ROE appears better than its performance based on EPS. Thus, the increase in competition that started in the 1970s, along with fixed-rate deposit insurance, may explain banks’ growing preference for ROE over EPS as a performance target.

Using unique micro data compiled from the real estate registry in Japan, we examine more than 400,000 loan-to-value (LTV) business loan ratios to draw implications for caps on LTV ratios as a macroprudential policy measure. We find that the LTV ratio exhibits counter-cyclicality, behavior that would have severely impeded the efficacy of a simple LTV cap had it been imposed. We also find that borrowers obtaining high-LTV loans are more risky but grew faster than those with lower LTV loans, which implies that a simple fixed cap on LTV ratios might inhibit growing (albeit risky) firms from borrowing.

This study empirically investigates the relationship between customer concentration and corporate risk-taking. We find that overall customer concentration significantly reduces corporate risk-taking. However, the relationship varies across different settings. Specifically, the negative relationship between customer-base concentration and corporate risk-taking is only significantly present in more marketized regions, more competitive industries, firms with lower market shares, less innovative and non-state-owned firms, and those without major governmental or state-owned-enterprise customers. Moreover, our panel threshold models indicate significant threshold effects. When customer-base concentration is below the first threshold (low concentration level), it is positively associated with corporate risk-taking. When customer-base concentration increases to above the second threshold, the association turns significantly negative, suggesting that a highly concentrated customer base prompts suppliers to take more precautionary measures and avoid excessive risk-taking. Overall, our findings suggest that the concentration of a supplier’s customer base significantly impacts its risk-taking behaviours.

Policymakers have put forward proposals to ensure that banks do not underestimate long-term risks from climate change. To examine how lenders account for extreme weather, we compare matched repeat mortgage and property transactions around a severe flood event in England in 2013–14. First, lender valuations do not “mark-to-market” against local price declines. As a result valuations are biased upwards. Second, lenders do not offset this valuation bias by adjusting interest rates or loan amounts. Third, borrowers with low credit risk self-select into high flood risk areas. Overall, these results suggest that lenders do not track closely the impact of extreme weather ex-post, and that public flood insurance programs subsidize high income households in some areas.