Knowledge that Transforms

The accuracy of dynamic stress-test capital models remains undocumented. Three methodologies: a CLASS-style approach, Bayesian model averaging, and a Lasso specification are used to forecast the performance of 14 large US banks during the financial crisis. Individual bank models are calibrated using bank historical data while regulatory models are calibrated using representative bank data. Representative bank model forecasts differ dramatically from the forecasts from bank-specific models and from actual outcomes. The Lasso methodology is most accurate, but its superiority may be sample-specific and is only apparent ex post. The results highlight the policy uncertainty inherent in regulatory stress tests.

This paper investigates the role of external auditors in banking sector supervision from a theoretical, institutional and empirical perspective. We first present a simple principal-agent framework that highlights the importance of several institutional characteristics in determining the optimal involvement of external auditors in supervision. We then construct a new index that captures the degree of involvement of external auditors in the oversight of the banking sector in 115 countries. Consistent with our theoretical arguments, we find that countries that increase the role of central banks in supervision are also more likely to involve auditors, suggesting that the added complexity of a supervisory function is likely to benefit from the expertise of an external auditor. Having experienced a financial crisis is also associated with a higher use of auditors, particularly among central banks with an increasing role in supervision, which suggests some reputational concerns of the supervisor. Finally, we show that higher audit quality is associated with an increased involvement of auditors in supervision.

Consistent with flight-to-quality, the coskewness between developed market sovereign bonds and global equity markets can help explain bond returns. A coskewness factor, defined as the return difference between the most negative coskewness bond portfolio and the most positive coskewness bond portfolio, carries a statistically significant unit price of risk of 43.8 basis points per month. Decreases in coskewness are also significantly associated with declines in bond yields. Coskewness declines during recessions when interest rates become low. Moreover, countries with a monetary policy regime which explicitly targets monetary aggregates have lower coskewness.

We explore the effects of bank bailouts on competition in the underwriting business. We exploit a sample of underwriters active in the European corporate bond markets from 2006 to 2013 and find that reputable underwriters suffer market share losses (of 12.43 %) after being bailed out. However, the market share of non-reputable underwriters is found to increase after a bail out. An exploration of the firm–bank underwriting matching reveals that the probability of being chosen as underwriter in a given deal decreases for reputable bailed-out banks, while it increases for non-reputable bailed-out banks. These results provide evidence of the effects of bailouts on underwriting competition. The economic impact depends on the ex-ante reputational capital of the bailed-out bank.

In this study, we examine whether political connections affect market reactions to rating changes. Using a new and comprehensive dataset on ten advanced emerging markets, we find that political connections attenuate negative reactions linked to rating downgrades. This effect is shaped by political ties involving influential politicians and concerns all sample firms and a subsample of nonfinancial companies. Moreover, we establish that state-owned companies or companies with significant state ownership do not benefit from the mitigation effect of political connections.

Using a sample of 27 countries between 1990 and 2014, we find that banks charge higher interest rates and adjust other contractual features of their loans when lending to firms facing more stringent environmental regulations. Our evidence suggests that lenders’ concerns about the increase in environmental liabilities resulting from regulations is driving the results. Specifically, we show that firms facing such regulations have fewer participants in their loan syndicates, higher bankruptcy risk, and lower credit ratings, despite reducing their leverage. Overall, our results indicate that the observed higher loan spread is the result of environmentally sensitive lending practices by banks.

This paper examines the impact of geographic technological diversification on firm innovativeness. Our empirical study conducted on a panel of U.S. manufacturing companies shows that firms with geographic technological diversification are more innovative (as measured by both patents and citations) than firms without. Furthermore, we find that the positive relation between geographic technological diversification and firm innovation is driven by domestic technological diversification, while international technological diversification is negatively related to firm innovation. Our valuation tests further confirm the detrimental effect of international technological diversification on shareholder wealth.

The Financial Crisis began and accelerated in short-term money markets. One such market is the multi-trillion dollar sale-and-repurchase (“repo”) market, where prices show strong reactions during the crisis. The academic literature and policy community remain unsettled about the role of repo runs, because detailed data on repo quantities is not available. We provide quantity evidence of the run on repo through an examination of the collateral brought to emergency liquidity facilities of the Federal Reserve. We show that the magnitude of repo discounts (“haircuts”) on specific collateral is related to the likelihood of that collateral being brought to Fed facilities.

We consider consumer responsiveness to changes in the macroeconomic environment (i.e. product demand sensitivity) to be a systematic industry characteristic useful to studying how industrial diversification adds value. We argue that diversified firms, with the advantages of their internal capital market and the imperfectly correlated cash flows of their segments, will perform better than focused firms when the demand sensitivity of a product increases. Our empirical evidence reveals a significant diversification premium associated with an increase in sensitivity. Moreover, such premium predominantly exists during recessionary periods, disappearing in the presence of low coinsurance and inefficient use of the internal capital market. Our results are robust to alternative measures of sensitivity and performance metrics, different empirical model specifications, and to the concern of possibly biased estimations associated with the sample of diversified and focused firms.

We examine the response of a broad set of digital assets to US Federal Fund interest rate and quantitative easing announcements, specifically examining associated volatility spillover and feedback effects. We classify each digital asset into one of three categories: Currencies; Protocols; and Decentralised Applications (dApps). Currency-based digital assets experience idiosyncratic spillovers in the period immediately after US monetary policy announcements, while application or protocol-based digital assets are largely immune to policy volatility spillover and feedback. Mineable digital assets are found to be more susceptible to monetary policy volatility spillovers and feedback than non-mineable. Responses indicate a diverse market within which, not all assets are comparable to Bitcoin.