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Measuring contagion risk in international banking

Journal of Financial Stability 2019 42, 36-51
We propose a distress measure for national banking systems that incorporates not only banks’ CDS spreads, but also how they interact with the rest of the global financial system via multiple linkage types. The measure is based on a tensor decomposition method that extracts an adjacency matrix from a multi-layer network, measured using banks’ foreign exposures obtained from the BIS international banking statistics. Based on this adjacency matrix, we develop a new network centrality measure that can be interpreted in terms of a banking system's credit risk or funding risk.

Is there a gender effect on the cost of bank financing?

Journal of Financial Stability 2017 31, 136-153 open access
In this paper, we address the question of whether the gender of a firm’s leader affects the cost of bank funding faced by small and medium enterprises in Europe. Using a large sample of observations of non-financial firms, during the years 2009–2013, we empirically test for the presence of discrimination, comparing female-led and male-led firms. After controlling for a rich set of variables and addressing potential endogeneity, our results show that i) female-led enterprises are more likely to face worse price conditions for bank financing compared to their male-led counterparts and, ii) firms whose leadership changes from female to male are more likely to benefit from an improvement in interest rate levels. This evidence is robust to different model specifications and various methodological approaches. The existence of such bias in the credit markets highlights the need of policy measures addressing female-led businesses, thus reducing their bank financing burdens and enhancing their entrepreneurial opportunities.

Resolution of financial distress: A theory of the choice between Chapter 11 and workouts

Journal of Financial Stability 2013 9(2), 196-209
We model the reorganization decision of distressed firms. One of the novel features of our paper is that we examine the asset and liability side restructuring decisions jointly to resolve financial distress. Secondly, we model several institutional features of coping with financial distress such as debtor-in-possession financing, prepackaged bankruptcies, and asset sales. In our model, asset liquidity, indirect costs of financial distress, and the option value of equity are the determinants of the choice between Chapter 11 reorganizations and workouts. The model develops several testable predictions, some of which are novel and others of which are able to explain previously documented empirical results.

Bank capital, institutional environment and systemic stability

Journal of Financial Stability 2018 37, 97-106
Using data on publicly traded banks in 61 countries, we examine how the institutional environment affects the relationship between bank capital and system-wide fragility. Consistent with prior studies, we find that bank capital is associated with a reduction in the systemic risk contribution of individual banks. This effect is more pronounced for banks located in countries with less efficient public and private monitoring of financial institutions and in countries with lower levels of information availability. Overall, our findings suggest that capital can act as a substitute for a weak institutional environment in reducing systemic risk.

Large capital infusions, investor reactions, and the return and risk-performance of financial institutions over the business cycle

Journal of Financial Stability 2014 11, 62-81
We examine investors’ reactions to announcements of large capital infusions by U.S. financial institutions (FIs) from 2000 to 2009. These infusions include private market infusions (seasoned equity offerings (SEOs)) as well as injections of government capital under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The sample period covers both business cycle expansions and contractions, and the recent financial crisis. We present evidence on the factors affecting FIs’ decisions to raise capital, the determinants of investor reactions, and post-infusion risk-taking of the recipients, as well as a sample of matching FIs. Investors reacted negatively to the news of private market SEOs by FIs, both in the immediate term (e.g., the two days surrounding the announcement) and over the subsequent year, but positively to TARP injections. Reactions differed depending on the characteristics of the FIs, and the stage of the business cycle. Smaller, more financially constrained non-bank institutions were more likely to have raised capital through private market offerings during the period prior to TARP, and firms receiving a TARP injection tended to be riskier and more levered. In the case of TARP recipients, they appeared to finance an increase in credit risk with more stable financing sources such as core deposits, which lowered their liquidity risk. However, we find no evidence that banks’ capital adequacy increased after the capital injections.

Who consumes the credit union subsidies?

Journal of Financial Stability 2023 69, 101176 open access
Credit unions in the United States (US) are exempt (benefit from subsidies) from federal corporate income taxes, which are traditionally justified by their non-profit cooperative status and mission of meeting the financial needs of individuals of modest means. In recent years, the efficacy and fairness of these subsidies has been debated extensively as the traditional demarcation between banks and credit unions and their respective customer bases have blurred. To investigate how credit unions allocate subsidies to various stakeholders, we estimate a structural profit model for matched pairs of credit unions and commercial banks. We find that credit unions use most (approximately 90%) of their tax exemption for the benefit of their membership via above-market deposit interest rates.

Financial risks, monetary policy in the QE era, and regulation

Journal of Financial Stability 2022 63, 101051
At the beginning of the present century, the literature on financial integration focused on the benefits of increased integration. In particular, the literature emphasized that a well-integrated financial system allows economic agents to engage in risk sharing while enhancing the smooth transmission of monetary policy. However, the international financial crisis of 2007-08 and the euro area sovereign debt crisis of 2009-15, brought to the fore the flip side of increased financial integration – namely, that higher financial integration among national jurisdictions creates the potential for destabilizing cross-country spillovers of capital flows. The papers in this Special Issue address financial system vulnerabilities in the aftermath of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2009-15 euro area crisis. In particular, the papers assess (1) vulnerabilities arising from such factors as the liberalization of financial systems, cross-country contagion, and climate change, and (2) policy responses, including macroprudential supervision and quantitative easing, to financial instabilities.

Measuring systemic vulnerability in European banking systems

Journal of Financial Stability 2018 36, 279-292 open access
We construct a measure of systemic vulnerability in selected EU banking systems using an indirect, time-varying measure of the system covariance. Systemic vulnerability indicates the extent to which a banking system as a whole is sensitive to a negative shock. We proceed to examine to what extent the resulting measures of systemic vulnerability provide a convincing narrative of events during the period January 2000 to April 2016. The results provide evidence of: (i) rising vulnerability prior to the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2007/08 in countries with banks exposed to toxic assets; (ii) vulnerability associated with the euro area sovereign debt crisis from 2009/10; and (iii) continued concerns from 2013 onwards regarding the need for euro area banks to improve their balance sheets and raise new capital at a time of sluggish profitability.

How the euro-area sovereign-debt crisis led to a collapse in bank equity prices

Journal of Financial Stability 2016 26, 266-275 open access
We quantify the linkages among banks’ equity performance and indicators of sovereign stress by using panel GMM to estimate a three-equation system that examines the impact of sovereign stress, as reflected in both sovereign spreads and sovereign ratings, on bank share prices. We use data for a panel of five euro-area stressed countries. Our findings indicate that a recursive relationship between sovereigns and banks operated during the euro-area crisis. Specifically, for the five crisis countries considered shocks to sovereign spreads fed-through to sovereign ratings, which affected commercial banks’ equity-prices. Our results also point to the importance of using levels of equity prices – rather than rates of return – in measuring banks’ performance. The use of levels allows us to derive the determinants of long-run equity prices.