Knowledge that Transforms

Conventional collateral requirements for derivatives are conservative, but not explicitly designed to buffer systemic risk. I explore collateral adequacy against systemic risk in the Canadian futures market during the 2008 crisis. I find that conventional collateral levels adequately absorb systemic risk, even allowing for an implausibly high level of stress, and that systemic risk spillovers do not exceed the effect of an approximately 1% downward stock price move. I also document that the largest systemic risk contributors are buffered relatively less than the rest, and that there is a large cross-country difference in the behavior of U.S. and Canadian institutions.

This article documents novel large-sample evidence on the informational role of interfirm ownership networks in bank lending. Using comprehensive loan-level data in China, we find that banks’ internal loan ratings at issuance predict subsequent delinquent events more accurately when borrowers are connected to banks’ existing customers via ownership networks. In post-issuance monitoring for delinquent loans, banks with access to ownership networks manage to downgrade their initial ratings before late payments. These findings suggest that ownership networks facilitate the transmission of private information for bank lending. Moreover, ownership networks are more important for transmitting information related to small and medium enterprises.

Hedge fund activists transfer relevant prior work experience to their activism campaigns. Categorizing activists based on past employment at investment banks (generalists), private equity or special situations partnerships (specialists), or other firms (nonfinancial experts), we relate activists’ prior work experience to their choices and outcomes. Both generalists with codifiable skills and specialists with tacit skills contribute to successful outcomes, but differences in these skills lead to differences in activism processes. Activist choices, market responses, target firm responses, and procedural aspects of activism vary with activist identity. Our analysis examines activists’ heterogeneous skills and highlights their importance in shaping activist interventions.

This article quantifies a new motive of holding cash through the channel of financing risk. We show that if access to future credit is risky, firms may issue long-term debt now and save funds in cash to secure the current credit capacity for the future. We structurally estimate the model and find that this motive explains approximately 24% to 30% of cash holdings in the data. Counterfactual experiments indicate that the value of holding cash is approximately 8% of shareholder value.

We use new hand-collected data from corporate filings to study the drivers of corporate capital structure adjustment. Classifying firms by their adjustment frequencies, we reveal previously unknown patterns in their reasons for financing and the financial instruments used. Some are consistent with existing theory, whereas others are understudied. Many leverage changes are outside of the firm’s control (e.g., executive option exercise) or incur negligible adjustment costs (e.g., credit-line usage). This implies a lower frequency of proactive leverage adjustments than indicated by prior research using accounting data, suggesting that costs of adjustment are higher, or the benefits lower, than previously thought.

Passive exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are ideally suited to style-level feedback trading because of their high liquidity, ease of short selling, and pure play on investment styles. I find strong evidence of short-term style-momentum trading in ETFs. Institutional investors that use ETFs do not act as arbitrageurs by trading against style momentum. Institutions, especially less sophisticated ones, are themselves style-momentum traders. Moreover, recent style-level demand predicts style-level return reversals. These findings suggest that uninformed positive feedback trading by less sophisticated market participants can destabilize financial markets in the short run.

I examine whether local bank finance facilitated the transition to a service-based economy in the U.S. I identify a causal role for local finance in service job creation. I use county-level changes to alcohol laws as demand shocks to service employers across a subsample of U.S. counties. Counties with more local finance experience more service job creation. This leads to labor market transitions that reflect shifts in the broader economy. Information asymmetry and collateral constraints connect local finance to service sector employment. The findings identify a unique role for local finance in the evolution to a postindustrial service-based economy.

The personal traits of chief executive officers (CEOs) have been found to influence corporate policy decisions. We examine the impact of CEO past corporate distress experiences on payout policy. CEOs who have experienced a distress event in their career, while working in a non-CEO position at a different firm, subsequently alter corporate payout policy once in the CEO position. They are less likely to pay dividends and repurchase shares, pay out lower levels of dividends, and are less likely to increase dividends. They further exhibit preference toward repurchases. Overall, we report that experience-driven conservatism affects payout policy, a novel finding in the literature.

Does financial development facilitate micro-entrepreneurship? Using randomized surveys of over 1 million Indian households and bank-branch location as predetermined by government policy, we find that access to finance shifts workers from informal micro-entrepreneurship into formal employment. Financial access reduces the likelihood of being self-employed but benefits micro-enterprises with employees, as well as formal firms. Using data on 400,000 firms, we find that in districts with more banks, firms have higher loans, productivity, employment, and wages than firms in less banked districts. This evidence suggests a labor-market mechanism by which financial development facilitates growth: by shifting workers from unproductive micro-entrepreneurship into productive employment.

Standard portfolio choice models predict that investors consider the tax implications of trading. However, individuals are disposed toward realizing gains and holding losing investments, behaviors that worsen their performance. We show, in an experimental market, that increasing tax salience reduces the disposition effect between 22% and 47%, leading to higher portfolio balances without increasing total trading activity. Using field data, we find that investors’ disposition is sensitive to taxes around tax rate changes when taxes are likely salient. Our analysis demonstrates that increasing tax awareness can affect households’ portfolio choices, which suggests policy implications for improving financial decision-making.