Contrary to Baker and Wurgler (2002), I find that the importance of historical average market-to-book ratios in leverage regressions is not due to past equity market timing. Although equity transactions may be timed to equity market conditions, they do not have significant long lasting effects on capital structure. Debt transactions exhibit timing patterns that are unlikely to induce a negative relation between market-to-book ratios and leverage. I also find that historical average market-to-book ratios have significant effects on current financing and investment decisions, implying that they contain information about growth opportunities not captured by current market-to-book ratios.

We investigate the dynamics of observed and target leverage ratios and deviations from the targets. The cross-sectional persistence in leverage ratios is driven by persistent targets, whereas time-series variation is driven by transitory deviations from targets. Consistent with dynamic trade-off theories, persistence is higher when the costs of deviating from targets are lower and when the adjustment costs are higher. Deviations are less persistent for firms that are over-levered and firms that are smaller, younger, or more focused or that have lower credit ratings. In recessions, excess leverage is less persistent for larger firms and is more persistent for smaller firms.

We document that firms’ financing decisions are affected by historical high prices. The ratio of the monthly high price to the 12-month historical high price positively affects the probability of a seasoned equity offering (SEO). Furthermore, the postannouncement market reaction is muted and the offering discount is smaller if the preannouncement stock price is high relative to its historical high price. The results suggest that historical high price reference points may help managers rationally time SEOs to take advantage of market reception and minimize issuance costs.

Higher first-year post-issue returns are associated with a significantly higher probability of follow-on equity issuance over the next 5 years. This result holds when we control for pre-issue returns and other factors known to affect the probability of equity issuance. The result is most consistent with the market feedback hypothesis that a high post-issue return encourages managers to increase the firm’s investment because it implies that, in the market’s view, the marginal return to the project is high.

When firms adjust their capital structures, they tend to move toward a target debt ratio that is consistent with theories based on tradeoffs between the costs and benefits of debt. In contrast to previous empirical work, out tests explicitly account for the fact that firms may face impediments to movements toward their target ratio, and that the target ratio may change over time as the firm's profitability and stock price change. A separate analysis of the size of the issue and repurchase transactions suggests that the deviation between the actual and the target ratios plays a more important role in the repurchase decision than in the issuance decision.