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Key Human Capital

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(1), 175-214 open access
Firms whose human capital is concentrated in a few irreplaceable employees lack diversification in their human capital stock, exposing them to key human capital risk. Using disclosures of “key man life insurance” to measure this risk, we show that exposed firms are riskier. These younger, smaller, growth firms have abnormally high volatility, and following announcement of key employee departures, the most exposed firms lose 8% of their value. Key employees tend to be highly educated. They are four times more likely to hold PhD degrees than top managers, and firms with key human capital are more innovative.

Liquidity Constraints and Credit Card Delinquency: Evidence from Raising Minimum Payments

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(4), 1705-1730
We use credit card data to estimate the impact of increasing minimum payments on delinquency, payments, spending, and write-offs. Our identification strategy exploits an unusual institutional feature: Borrowers can use their account to make purchases with both revolving loans (on which minimum payments increased) and term loans (on which there was no change). Payment increases by delinquent borrowers are insufficient to match increasing minimums, resulting in lower cure rates and an increase in write-offs. Affected borrowers migrate away from these accounts by decreasing charges and increasing payments, consequently lowering the interest earned by the bank.

Informed Trading around Stock Split Announcements: Evidence from the Option Market

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(2), 705-735 open access
Prior research shows that splitting firms earn positive abnormal returns and that they experience an increase in stock return volatility. By examining option-implied volatility, we assess option traders’ perceptions on return and volatility changes arising from stock splits. We find that they do expect higher volatility following splits. There is only weak evidence, though, of option traders anticipating an abnormal increase in stock prices. We also show that our option measures can predict both stock volatility levels and changes after the announcement. However, there is little evidence that they can predict the returns of splitting firms.

DRIPs and the Dividend Pay Date Effect

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(4), 1765-1795
On the day that dividends are paid, we find a significant positive mean abnormal return that is completely reversed over the following days. This dividend pay date effect has strengthened since the 1970s and is consistent with the temporary price pressure hypothesis. The pay date effect is concentrated among stocks with dividend reinvestment plans (DRIPs) and is larger for stocks with a higher dividend yield, greater DRIP participation, and greater limits to arbitrage. Over time, profits from a trading strategy that exploits this behavior are positively related to the dividend yield and spread and negatively associated with aggregate liquidity.

Seasonal Asset Allocation: Evidence from Mutual Fund Flows

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(1), 71-109 open access
We analyze the flow of money between mutual fund categories, finding strong evidence of seasonality in investor risk aversion. Aggregate investor flow data reveal an investor preference for safe mutual funds in autumn and risky funds in spring. During September alone, outflows from equity funds average $13 billion, controlling for previously documented flow determinants (e.g., capital-gains overhang). This movement of large amounts of money between fund categories is correlated with seasonality in investor risk aversion, consistent with investors preferring safer (riskier) investments in autumn (spring). We find consistent evidence in Canada and also in Australia, where seasons are offset by 6 months.