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The Use and Misuse of Income Data and Extreme Poverty in the United States

Journal of Labor Economics 2021 39(S1), S5-S58 open access
Recent research suggests that the share of US households living on less than $2/person/day is high and rising. We reexamine such extreme poverty by linking SIPP and CPS data to administrative tax and program data. We find that more than 90% of those reported to be in extreme poverty are not, once we include in-kind transfers, replace survey reports of earnings and transfer receipt with administrative records, and account for ownership of substantial assets. More than half of all misclassified households have incomes from the administrative data above the poverty line, and many have middle-class measures of material well-being.

The Employment Dynamics of Disadvantaged Women: Evidence from the SIPP

Journal of Labor Economics 2016 34(4), 899-944
Understanding the employment dynamics of disadvantaged families is increasingly important. We estimate duration models describing these dynamics for disadvantaged single mothers and use them to conduct a rich set of counterfactual analyses. We use a misreporting model to correct for “seam bias,” the problem that too many transitions are reported between reference periods in panel data. We find effects of demographics, minimum wages, unemployment rates, and maximum welfare benefits, but not policy changes introduced through state welfare waivers, on employment dynamics. We find that two commonly used ad hoc methods of addressing seam bias perform substantially worse than our approach.

Employer Tax Evasion in the Unemployment Insurance Program

Journal of Labor Economics 1996 14(2), 210-230
We use unique data to analyze employer tax compliance with Unemployment Insurance (UI) provisions. The data indicate that employers may have underreported $728 million of UI taxes nationally in 1987 alone. To formally examine this noncompliance, a theoretical model of payroll tax evasion is developed showing that increasing payroll tax rates, among other things, likely increases noncompliance by risk-neutral firms. This prediction is empirically verified. The finding that UI tax evasion is systematically related to various firm characteristics suggests that UI audits may be effectively targeted by statistical profiles derived from our model, thereby improving compliance.

The Feasibility and Importance of Adding Measures of Actual Experience to Cross-Sectional Data Collection

Journal of Labor Economics 2013 31(S1), S17-S58
We use Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics data and data from a 2008 telephone survey of adults conducted by Westat for the Princeton Data Improvement Initiative (PDII) to explore the importance and feasibility of adding retrospective questions about actual work experience to cross-sectional data sets. We demonstrate that having such actual experience data is important for analyzing women’s postschool human capital accumulation, residual wage inequality, and the gender pay gap. Further, our PDII survey results show that it is feasible to collect actual experience data in cross-sectional telephone surveys like the March Current Population Survey’s annual supplement.

Changes in the Labor Supply Behavior of Married Women: 1980–2000

Journal of Labor Economics 2007 25(3), 393-438
Using March Current Population Survey data, we investigate married women’s labor supply from 1980 to 2000. We find a large rightward shift in their labor supply function for annual hours in the 1980s, with little shift in the 1990s. These shifts account for most of the slowdown in the growth of labor supply during this period. A major development was the dramatic decrease in the responsiveness of married women’s labor supply to their own and husbands’ wages: their own wage elasticity fell by 50%–56%, while their cross wage elasticity fell by 38%–47% in absolute value.

How Do Firing Costs Affect Worker Flows in a World with Adverse Selection?

Journal of Labor Economics 2004 22(3), 553-584
This article provides theoretical and empirical analyses of a firing costs model with adverse selection. Our theory suggests that, as firing costs increase, firms increasingly prefer hiring employed workers, who are less likely to be lemons. Estimates of re‐employment probabilities from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth support this prediction. Unjust‐dismissal provisions in U.S. states reduce the re‐employment probabilities of unemployed workers relative to employed workers. Consistent with a lemons story, the relative effects of unjust‐dismissal provisions on the unemployed are generally smaller for union workers and those who lost their previous jobs due to the end of a contract.

Understanding International Differences in the Gender Pay Gap

Journal of Labor Economics 2003 21(1), 106-144
Using microdata for 22 countries over the 198594 period, we find that more compressed male wage structures and lower female net supply are both associated with a lower gender pay gap, with an especially large effect for wage structures. Reduced-form specifications indicate that the extent of collective bargaining coverage is also significantly negatively related to the gender pay gap. Together, the wage compression and collective bargaining results suggest that the high wage floors that are associated with highly centralized, unionized wage setting raise women's relative pay, since women are at the bottom of the wage distribution in each country.

Determinants of Performance Measure Choices in Worker Incentive Plans

Journal of Labor Economics 2002 20(S2), S58-S90
This study examines the determinants of performance measure choices in worker incentive plans. The results indicate that informativeness issues such as those addressed in economic theories have a significant effect on measurement choices. However, other reasons for adopting the plans, such as upgrading the workforce and linking bonuses to the firm’s ability to pay, also influence measurement choices, as do union representation and management participation in plan design. Moreover, the factors influencing the use of specific measures vary, suggesting that the aggregate performance measure classifications commonly used in compensation research provide somewhat misleading inferences regarding performance measurement choices.

Families or Schools? Explaining the Convergence in White and Black Academic Performance

Journal of Labor Economics 2000 18(4), 729-754 open access
Differences in test scores of white and black students have narrowed substantially over time, falling by one‐half since 1970s. Some have speculated that this convergence is due to changes in family background or convergence in school quality. In this article we decompose the convergence in test scores into that portion due to changes in parental education, changes in school quality, and a narrowing of the within‐school gap in test scores. Only about 25% of the overall convergence is attributable to changing family and school characteristics. We find that nearly 75% of the convergence is attributable to changes within schools.

Swimming Upstream: Trends in the Gender Wage Differential in the 1980s

Journal of Labor Economics 1997 15(1, Part 1), 1-42
Using Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics data for 1979 and 1988, the authors analyze how a falling gender wage gap occurred despite changes in wage structure unfavorable to low-wage workers. The decrease is traced to 'gender-specific' factors which more than counterbalanced changes in measured and unmeasured prices working against women. Supply shifts net of demand were unfavorable for women generally and hurt high-skilled more than middle- and low-skilled women. By analyzing wages, the authors find support for the notion of a gender twist in supply and demand having its largest negative effect on high-skilled women.