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The Long-Run Effects of Teacher Strikes: Evidence from Argentina

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(4), 1097-1139
We exploit cross-cohort variation in the prevalence of teacher strikes within and across provinces in Argentina to examine how teacher strikes affect student long-run outcomes. Being exposed to the average incidence of strikes during primary school reduces labor earnings of males and females by 3.2% and 1.9%, respectively. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that this amounts to an aggregate annual earnings loss of $2.34 billion. We also find an increase in unemployment and a decline in the skill levels of the occupations into which students sort. These effects are driven, at least in part, by a reduction in educational attainment.

Early Childcare and Cognitive Development: Evidence from an Assignment Lottery

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(2), 581-620 open access
Young children are thought to be vulnerable to separation from their primary caregiver. This raises concern about whether early childcare enrollment may harm child development. We use childcare assignment lotteries to estimate the effect of enrollment at age 1–2 on cognitive development in Norway. Estimates show significant gains in language and mathematics at age 6–7 and a substantial drop in scores below publicly set thresholds for low performance. Across subsamples, we find a pattern of stronger effects on underperforming groups. We find little support for childcare quality or family income as drivers of our results.

Long-Run Consequences of Exposure to Natural Disasters

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(3), 949-1007 open access
We explore whether fetal and postnatal exposure to tropical cyclones affects education and income in adulthood by using World War I draft records linked to census data. Difference-in-differences estimates indicate that white males born in hurricane-prone US states who experienced a hurricane in utero or as infants had 5% lower income. Labor force participation was unaffected, while education and migration account for a small portion of the effects on income. Empirical tests suggest the persistent impact of damage is an unlikely channel. Thus, we attribute the findings to lower health capital stemming from temporary disruption in the aftermath of storms.

Can Online Delivery Increase Access to Education?

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(1), 1-34 open access
Most research on online education compares student performance across online and in-person formats. We provide the first evidence that online education affects the number of people pursuing education by studying Georgia Tech’s Online MS in Computer Science, the earliest model offering a highly ranked degree at low cost. A regression discontinuity in admission shows that program access substantially increases overall educational enrollment. By satisfying large, previously unmet demand for midcareer training, this program will boost annual production of American computer science master’s degrees by at least 7%. Online options may open opportunities for populations who would not otherwise pursue education.

Mortality Inequality in Canada and the United States: Divergent or Convergent Trends?

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(S2), S325-S353
Mortality is a crucial indicator of well-being, and recent mortality trends have been a subject of public debate in many Western countries. This paper compares mortality inequality in Canada and the United States over the period 1990/91 through 2010/11. In Canada, mortality inequality remained constant among the youngest but increased for men over 24 and women over 14. In contrast, in the United States, mortality inequality fell for children and youth and either modestly increased or held steady at older ages. By 2010/11, the initially higher US rates of infant and child mortality had almost converged to their Canadian counterparts

Intergenerational Mobility Between and Within Canada and the United States

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(S2), S595-S641
Intergenerational income mobility is lower in the United States than in Canada but varies significantly within each country. Our subnational analysis finds that the national border only partially distinguishes the approximately 1,000 regions we analyze within these countries. The Canada-US border divides central and eastern Canada from the US Great Lakes and northeastern regions. Simultaneously, some Canadian regions have more in common with the low-mobility southern parts of the United States than with the rest of Canada; that these areas represent a much larger fraction of the US population also explains why mobility is lower in the United States.

Pay by Design: Teacher Performance Pay Design and the Distribution of Student Achievement

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(3), 621-662
We present results of a randomized trial testing alternative approaches of mapping student achievement into rewards for teachers. Teachers in 216 schools in western China were assigned to performance pay schemes where teacher performance was assessed by one of three different methods. We find that teachers offered “pay-for-percentile” incentives outperform teachers offered simpler schemes based on class-average achievement or average gains over a school year. Moreover, pay-for-percentile incentives produced broad-based gains across students within classes. That teachers respond to relatively intricate features of incentive schemes highlights the importance of paying close attention to performance pay design.

Inequality of Educational Opportunity? Schools as Mediators of the Intergenerational Transmission of Income

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(S1), S85-S123
Intergenerational income transmission varies across commuting zones (CZs). I investigate whether children’s educational outcomes help to explain this variation. Differences among CZs in the relationship between parental income and children’s human capital explain only one-ninth of the variation in income transmission. A similar share is explained by differences in the return to human capital. One-third reflects earnings differences not mediated by human capital, and 40% reflects differences in marriage patterns. Intergenerational mobility appears to reflect job networks and the structure of local labor and marriage markets more than it does the education system.

Introduction: Labor Markets and Public Policies in the United States and Canada

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(S2), S243-S252
The United States and Canada are as close economically and socially as any pair of countries in the world. They share similar cultural traditions and economic institutions. They are also closely linked by trade and multinational firms that operate on both sides of the border. Nevertheless, the two countries differ inmany small but important ways that ultimately affect individual outcomes and overall labor market performance. Canada has a more comprehensive set of social programs that tend to be more redistributive than those in the United States. Canada also has a higher rate of immigration, with nearly twice as many immigrants per capita. The Canadian economy is more reliant on the natural resource sector, while the United States has a larger tech sector. The United States has a wider distribution of income, with higher poverty rates and a higher share of people with earnings far above themedian salary. It also experienced a far deeper and longer-lasting recession in 2007–8, the consequences of which are still being analyzed and debated. There is a long tradition in social science of using comparisons between the United States and Canada to uncover the impacts of different institutions and policies, including work in political science (e.g., Lipset 1990), criminology (e.g., Sloan et al. 1988), medicine (e.g., Gorey et al. 2009), demography (e.g., Boyd 1976), and labor relations (e.g., Meltz 1985). Building on this tra

Minimum Wages and Spatial Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence

Journal of Labor Economics 2019 37(3), 853-904 open access
This paper introduces a spatial equilibrium model that relates earnings, employment, and internal migration responses to minimum wage increases. Population moves to or away from regions that increase minimum wages depending on the labor demand elasticity and on the financing of unemployment benefits. The empirical evidence shows that increases in minimum wages lead to increases in wages and decreases in employment among the low skilled. The labor demand elasticity is estimated to be around 1, which in the model is in line with the migration responses observed in the data. Low-skilled workers tend to leave regions that increase minimum wages