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The Use of Effective Tariffs

Journal of Political Economy 1971 79(1), 128-141 open access
Citations are given to show that since 1888 some people have understood the idea of effective tariffs. For fourteen studies on twenty-six countries done during the last five years, one finds a rank correlation of .95 between the height of a nation's average effective tariff and the height of the nation's average nominal tariff. Looking at the effective tariff and the nominal tariff for various industries within a country, one finds both a significant regression between them and a rank correlation between them of over .70 for twenty-three of the twenty-six countries. I speculate on reasons for these results.

Transaction Costs, Order Placement Strategy, and Existence of the Bid-Ask Spread

Journal of Political Economy 1981 89(2), 287-305
By considering investor order placement strategy, this paper demonstrates that transaction costs cause bid-ask spreads to be an equilibrium property of asset markets. With transaction costs, the probability of a limit order executing does not go to unity as the order is placed infinitesimally close to a counterpart market quote; thus, with certainty of execution at the counterpart market quote, a "gravitational pull" is generated that keeps counterpart quotes from being placed infinitesimally close to each other. An equilibrium spread is defined and its size linked to market thinness; implications are noted for the design of a trading system.

Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?

Journal of Political Economy 2011 119(6), 1015-1060 open access
This paper employs a new empirical approach for identifying the impact of government spending on the private sector. Our key innovation is to use changes in congressional committee chairmanships as a source of exogenous variation in state-level federal expenditures. We show that fiscal spending shocks appear to significantly dampen corporate investment activity. This retrenchment occurs within large and small states and is most pronounced among geographically concentrated firms. The effects are economically meaningful, and the mechanism--entirely distinct from interest rate and tax channels--suggests new considerations in assessing the impact of government spending on private-sector economic activity.

The Small World of Investing: Board Connections and Mutual Fund Returns

Journal of Political Economy 2008 116(5), 951-979 open access
Management for helpful comments. We also thank Nick Kennedy, Stephen Wilson, Laura Dutson, Matthew Healey, Meng Ning, Courtney Stone, and Bennett Surajat for excellent research assistance. We are grateful to BoardEx and Linda Cechova for providing firm board data, Morningstar and Annette Larson for providing mutual fund data, and to the Chicago GSB Initiative on Global Markets for financial support. This paper uses social networks to identify information transfer in security markets. We focus on connections between mutual fund managers and corporate board members via shared education networks. We find that portfolio managers place larger bets on firms they are connected to through their network, and perform significantly better on these holdings relative to their non-connected holdings. A replicating portfolio of connected stocks outperforms a replicating portfolio of non-connected stocks by up to 7.8 % per year. Returns are concentrated around corporate news announcements, consistent with mutual fund managers gaining an informational advantage through the education networks. Our results

Transaction Costs, Order Placement Strategy, and Existence of the Bid-Ask Spread

Journal of Political Economy 1981 89(2), 287-305
By considering investor order placement strategy, this paper demonstrates that transaction costs cause bid-ask spreads to be an equilibrium property of asset markets. With transaction costs, the probability of a limit order executing does not go to unity as the order is placed infinitesimally close to a counterpart market quote; thus, with certainty of execution at the counterpart market quote, a "gravitational pull" is generated that keeps counterpart quotes from being placed infinitesimally close to each other. An equilibrium spread is defined and its size linked to market thinness; implications are noted for the design of a trading system.