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Demand for Online News under Government Control: Evidence from Russia

Journal of Political Economy 2022 130(2), 259-309
We examine the nature of consumer demand for government-controlled online news outlets in Russia, testing whether such demand reflects a preference for progovernment ideological coverage or other factors unrelated to outlets’ ideological positions. We detect government-sensitive topics and measure outlets’ news-reporting decisions from news article texts, and we estimate a structural model of demand for news, using detailed browsing data that traces individual-level consumption. The average consumer has a distaste for progovernment ideology but a strong, persistent taste for state-owned outlets, primarily driven by third-party referrals and nonsensitive news content. We discuss implications for online media control and media power.

Avoiding the Ask: A Field Experiment on Altruism, Empathy, and Charitable Giving

Journal of Political Economy 2017 125(3), 625-653
If people enjoy giving, then why do they avoid fund-raisers? Partnering with the Salvation Army at Christmastime, we conducted a randomized field experiment placing bell ringers at one or both main entrances to a supermarket, making it easy or difficult to avoid the ask. Additionally, bell ringers either were silent or said “please give.” Making avoidance difficult increased both the rate of giving and donations. Paradoxically, the verbal ask dramatically increased giving but also led to dramatic avoidance. We argue that this illustrates sophisticated awareness of the empathy-altruism link: people avoid empathic stimulation to regulate their giving and guilt.

A/B Testing with Fat Tails

Journal of Political Economy 2020 128(12), 4614-000
We propose a new framework for optimal experimentation, which we term the “A/B testing problem.” Our model departs from the existing literature by allowing for fat tails. Our key insight is that the optimal strategy depends on whether most gains accrue from typical innovations or from rare, unpredictable large successes. If the tails of the unobserved distribution of innovation quality are not too fat, the standard approach of using a few high-powered “big” experiments is optimal. However, if the distribution is very fat tailed, a “lean” strategy of trying more ideas, each with possibly smaller sample sizes, is preferred. Our theoretical results, along with an empirical analysis of Microsoft Bing’s EXP platform, suggest that simple changes to business practices could increase innovation productivity.