Knowledge that Transforms

We study the effects of customer recognition and behavior-based price discrimination (BPD) in a two-period experience good duopoly with a discrete value distribution, and we investigate the role of consumers’ ex ante valuation uncertainty in dynamic price competition through comparison with an inspection good duopoly. Several results are reached. First, the firms may reward repeat purchase when the probability of a high value is relatively low and when the high–low value difference is large; otherwise, they may engage in poaching. Second, BPD frequently increases each firm’s total profits, even in the poaching equilibrium. These results contrast with the inspection good duopoly, and the driver is that consumers’ period 2 product preference depends on their realized values in period 1. Third, consumers’ ex ante valuation uncertainty may increase or decrease firm profits without BPD, and it weakly increases firm profits with BPD, relative to the inspection good duopoly. This paper was accepted by J. Miguel Villas-Boas, marketing.

In this paper, we consider the problem of capacity provisioning for an online service supported by advertising. We analyse the strategic interaction between the service provider and the user base in this setting, modeling positive network effects, as well as congestion sensitivity in the user base. We focus specifically on the influence of positive network effects, as well as the impact of noncooperative behavior in the user base on the firm’s capacity provisioning decision and its profit. Our analysis reveals that stronger positive network effects, as well as noncooperation in the user base, drive the service into a more congested state and lead to increased profit for the service provider. However, the impact of noncooperation, or “anarchy” in the user base strongly dominates the impact of network effects. This paper was accepted by Noah Gans, stochastic models and simulation.

Nonprofit organizations use direct-mail marketing to cultivate one-time donors and convert them into recurring contributors. Cultivated donors generate much more revenue than new donors, but also lapse with time, making it important to steadily draw in new cultivations. The direct-mail budget is limited, but better-designed mailings can improve success rates without increasing costs. We propose an empirical model to analyze the effectiveness of several design approaches used in practice, based on a massive data set covering 8.6 million direct-mail communications with donors to the American Red Cross during 2009–2011. We find evidence that mailed appeals are more effective when they emphasize disaster preparedness and training efforts over post-disaster cleanup. Including small cards that affirm donors’ identity as Red Cross supporters is an effective strategy, whereas including gift items such as address labels is not. Finally, very recent acquisitions are more likely to respond to appeals that ask them to contribute an amount similar to their most recent donation, but this approach has an adverse effect on donors with a longer history. We show via simulation that a simple design strategy based on these insights has potential to improve success rates from 5.4% to 8.1%. This paper was accepted by Serguei Netessine, operations management.

We consider a monopolistic firm selling two substitutable products to a stream of sequential arrivals whose purchase decisions can be influenced by earlier purchases. Before demand realizes, the firm faces a newsvendor problem for the two products with economies of scale in production for each. When consumers are responsive to others’ decisions, social influence amplifies demand uncertainty, leading to a lower profit for the firm. We propose three solutions for the firm to better cope with or even benefit from social influence: influencer recruitment and a reduced product assortment either before demand realization (ex ante) or under production postponement (ex post). First, the firm can offer promotional incentives to recruit consumers as influencers. We reveal an operational benefit of influencer marketing that a very small fraction of such influencers is sufficient to diminish sales’ unpredictability. Second, as the potential substitutability between products increases due to social influence, the firm may leverage the increased substitutability and enjoy lower cost in production by reducing product assortment before demand realization. Last, under production postponement, the firm can take advantage of the way that social influence results in demand herding and reduce product varieties by reacting to preorder information. This paper was accepted by Martin Lariviere, operations management.

This paper studies the role of family background in explaining differences in the willingness to compete in a cognitive task. By combining data from a lab experiment conducted with a fairly representative sample of adolescents in Norway and high-quality register data on family background, we show that family background is fundamental in two important ways. First, boys from low socioeconomic status families are less willing to compete than boys from better-off families, even when controlling for confidence, performance, risk preferences, time preferences, social preferences, and psychological traits. Second, family background is crucial for understanding the large gender difference in the willingness to compete. Girls are much less willing to compete than boys among children from better-off families, whereas we do not find any gender difference in willingness to compete among children from low socioeconomic status families. Our data suggest that the main explanation of the role of family background is that the father’s socioeconomic status is strongly associated with boys’ willingness to compete. We do not find any association between the willingness to compete for boys or girls and the mother’s socioeconomic status or other family characteristic that may potentially shape competition preferences, including parental equality and sibling rivalry. This paper was accepted by Uri Gneezy, behavioral economics.

This paper tests how collateral value affects a firm’s choice between bank debt and public debt by considering the exogenous variation in the market value of a firm’s real-estate assets caused by fluctuations in local real-estate prices. Using local land supply elasticities as an instrument for local real-estate prices, I estimate that a one-standard-deviation increase in collateral value causes bank debt as a fraction of total debt to increase by six percentage points. This paper was accepted by Wei Jiang, finance.

Using a theorem showing that matching probabilities of ambiguous events can capture ambiguity attitudes, we introduce a tractable method for measuring ambiguity attitudes and apply it in a large representative sample. In addition to ambiguity aversion, we confirm an ambiguity component recently found in laboratory studies: a-insensitivity, the tendency to treat subjective likelihoods as 50-50, thus overweighting extreme events. Our ambiguity measurements are associated with real economic decisions; specifically, a-insensitivity is negatively related to stock market participation. Ambiguity aversion is also negatively related to stock market participation, but only for subjects who perceive stock returns as highly ambiguous. This paper was accepted by James Smith, decision analysis.