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Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(2), 309-340 open access
We analyze the response of small versus large manufacturing firms to monetary policy. The goal is to obtain evidence on the importance of financial propagation mechanisms for aggregate activity. We find that small firms account for a significantly disproportionate share of the manufacturing decline that follows tightening of monetary policy. They play a surprisingly prominent role in the slowdown of inventory demand. Large firms initially borrow to accumulate inventories. After a brief period, small firms quickly shed inventories. We attempt to sort financial from nonfinancial explanations with evidence on asymmetries and on balance sheet effects on inventory demand across size classes.

The Dynamics of Learning with Team Production: Implications for Task Assignment

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(4), 1157-1184
We analyze optimal task assignment when a firm needs to learn the abilities of employees. When projects require collaboration between juniors and seniors and only team outputs are observable, having juniors divide their time between two projects ("junior sharing") is less informative about their abilities, but more informative about their senior teammates' abilities, than having juniors devote all their time to a single project ("no sharing"). In an overlapping-generations model, we show that no sharing is more (less) attractive than junior sharing if the prior uncertainty about abilities is small (large) relative to exogenous shocks to team production.

Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(1), 83-109
In the context of an overlapping-generations model, we show that Uquidity constraints on households (i) raise the saving rate, (ii) strengthen the effect of growth on saving, (iii) increase the growth rate if productivity growth is endogenous, and (iv) may increase welfare. The first three positions are supported by cross-country regressions of saving and growth rates on indicators of liquidity contraints on households. The results suggest that financial deregulation in the 1980s has contributed to the decline in national saving and growth rates in the OECD countries.

A Theory of Debt and Equity: Diversity of Securities and Manager-Shareholder Congruence

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(4), 1027-1054
This paper shows how the optimal financial structure of a firm complements incentive schemes to discipline managers, and how the securities' return streams determine the claim-holders' incentives to intervene in management. The theory rationalizes (1) the multipUcity of securities, (2) the observed correlation between return streams and control rights of securities, and (3) the partial congruence between managerial and equity-holder preferences over policy choices and monetary rewards as well as the low level of interference of equity in management. The theory also offers new prospects for a reappraisal of the earlier corporate finance literature.

The Effects of Labor Unions on Employment, Wages, and Days of Operation: Coal Mining in West Virginia

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(1), 267-298
We present a framework for measuring the joint impact of labor unions on wages, employment, and days of work. Our particular application uses county level observations to measure the impact of unionism in West Virginia coal mining from 1897 to 1938. The widespread belief is that union-nonunion wage differentials in coal mining during this period were of the order of 50 percent or more. Our estimates are substantially less. We measure negligible differences in union-nonunion employment, while, in the 1920s, operating days in unionized mines were about 25 percent below those in nonunion mines.

North-South Trade and the Environment

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(3), 755-787
A simple static model of North-South trade is developed to examine linkages between national income, pollution, and international trade. Two countries produce a continuum of goods, each differing in pollution intensity. We show that the higher income country chooses stronger environmental protection, and specializes in relatively clean goods. By isolating the scale, composition, and technique effects of international trade on pollution, we show that free trade increases world pollution; an increase in the rich North's production possibilities increases pollution, while similar growth in the poor South lowers pollution; and unilateral transfers from North to South reduce worldwide pollution.

Fiscal Paradise: Foreign Tax Havens and American Business

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(1), 149-182 open access
The tax haven affiliates of American corporations account for more than 20 percent of U. S. foreign direct investment, and nearly a third of the foreign profits of U. S. firms. American companies report extraordinarily high profit rates on their tax haven investments in 1982. This behavior implies that the revenue-maximizing tax rate for a typical haven is around 5–8 percent. American (and foreign) investment in tax havens has an uncertain effect on U. S. tax revenue, but since low tax rates encourage American companies to shift profits out of high-tax foreign countries, it is possible that low foreign tax rates ultimately enhance U. S. tax collections.

The Wage Policy of a Firm

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(4), 921-955
Salary data from a single firm are analyzed in an effort to identify the firm's wage policy. We find that employees are partly shielded against changes in external market conditions; that wage variation within a job level is large both cross-sectionally and for individuals over time, often leading to substantial real wage declines; that wage increases are serially correlated even controlling for observable characteristics; and that promotions and wage growth are strongly related, even though promotion premiums are small relative to the large wage differences between job levels. None of the major theories of wage determination can alone explain the evidence.

The Internal Economics of the Firm: Evidence from Personnel Data

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(4), 881-919
We analyze twenty years of personnel data from one firm. The hierarchical structure is quite simple and stable. Career movements suggest that the employee's rate of learning and the firm's learning about ability are important. There are promotion “fast tracks.” Exit rates vary little with tenure or salary. The firm has personnel policies like those described in the internal labor markets literature, although several theoretical preconditions for ILMs, such as ports of entry and exit, are lacking. Job levels are important to compensation, but there is also substantial individual variation in pay within levels. Our companion paper (in this issue) explores the wage policy of this firm.