Knowledge that Transforms

We develop a method of solving rational expectations models with dispersed information and dynamic strategic complementarities. In these types of models, the equilibrium outcome hinges on an infinite number of higher-order expectations which require an increasing number of state variables to keep track of. Despite this complication, we prove that the equilibrium outcome always admits a finite-state representation when the signals follow finite ARMA processes. We also show that such a finite-state result may not hold with endogenous information aggregation. We further illustrate how to use the method to derive comparative statics, characterize equilibrium outcomes in HANK-type network games, reconcile with empirical evidence on expectations, and integrate incomplete information with bounded rationality in general equilibrium.

We develop a theory of information spillovers in sovereign bond markets in which investors can learn about default risk before trading in primary and secondary markets. If primary markets are structured as multi-unit discriminatory-price auctions, an endogenous winner’s curse leads to strategic complementarities in information acquisition. Shocks to default risk in one country may trigger crisis episodes with widespread information acquisition, sharp increases in the level and volatility of yields in risky countries, low and stable yields in safe countries, market segmentation, and arbitrage profits between primary and secondary markets. These predictions are consistent with the dynamics of auction informativeness during the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis, which we measure using the reaction of secondary market yields to primary market yields.

Evidence across disciplines suggests that talk therapy is more curative than antidepressants for mild-to-moderate depression and anxiety. Yet, few patients use it. We develop a dynamic choice model to analyse patient demand for the treatment of depression and anxiety. The model incorporates myriad potential impediments to therapy use along with links between mental health improvements and earnings. The estimated model reveals that mental health improvements are valuable, directly through utility and indirectly through earnings. However, patient reluctance to use therapy is nearly impervious to reasonable counterfactual policies (e.g. lowering prices or removing other costs). Patient behaviour might reflect stigma, biases in beliefs about the effectiveness of therapy, or a distaste for discussing personal or painful issues with a stranger. More broadly, the benefits of therapy estimated in randomized trials tell only half the story. If patients do not use treatments outside of an experimental setting—and we fail to understand why or how to get them to—estimated treatment effects cannot be leveraged.

This study argues that the decline of coercive labour institutions over the course of industrialization was partly driven by complementarity between physical capital and effective labour in manufacturing. Given the difficulty of extracting labour effort in care-intensive industrial tasks through monitoring and punishment, capital-owning elites ultimately chose to emancipate workers to induce their supply of effective labour and, thus, boost the return to physical capital. This hypothesis is empirically examined in the context of serf emancipation in nineteenth-century Prussia. Exploiting variation in proto-industrialization across Prussian counties, the analysis finds that, consistent with the proposed hypothesis, the initial abundance of elite-owned physical capital is associated with a higher pace of serf emancipation and lower redemption payments to manorial lords.

We analyse the joint life-cycle dynamics of labour market and mental health outcomes while allowing for two-way interactions between work and mental health. We model selection into jobs on a labour market with search frictions, accounting for the level of exposure to stress in each job using data on occupational health contents. Taking our model to British data from Understanding Society combined with information from O*NET, we estimate the impact of job characteristics on health dynamics and the effects of health and job stress contents on career choices. We use our model to quantify the effects of job loss, health shocks, or job stress shocks that propagate over the life cycle through both health and work channels. We also estimate the (large) values workers attach to health, employment, or nonstressful jobs.

Social interactions determine many economic behaviours, but information on social ties does not exist in most publicly available and widely used datasets. We present results on the identification of social networks from observational panel data that contains no information on social ties between agents. In the context of a canonical social interactions model, we provide sufficient conditions under which the social interactions matrix, endogenous and exogenous social effect parameters are globally identified if networks are constant over time. We also provide an extension of the method for time-varying networks. We then describe how high-dimensional estimation techniques can be used to estimate the interactions model based on the adaptive elastic net Generalized Method of Moments. We employ the method to study tax competition across U.S. states. The identified social interactions matrix implies that tax competition differs markedly from the common assumption of competition between geographically neighbouring states, providing further insights into the long-standing debate on the relative roles of factor mobility and yardstick competition in driving tax setting behaviour across states. Most broadly, our identification and application show that the analysis of social interactions can be extended to economic realms where no network data exist.

The extent to which households can self-insure depends on family structure and wage risk. We calibrate a model of couples and singles’ savings and labour supply under two types of wage processes. The first wage process is the canonical—age-independent, linear—one that is typically used to evaluate government insurance provision. The second wage process is a flexible one. We use our model to evaluate the optimal mix of the two most common types of means-tested benefits—IW versus income floor. The canonical wage process underestimates wage persistence for women and thus implies that IW benefits should account for most benefit income. In contrast, the richer wage process that matches the wage data well, implies that the income floor should be the main benefit source, similarly to the system in place in the U.K. This stresses that allowing for rich wage dynamics is important to properly evaluate policy.

How does competition from online platforms affect the organization, performance, and editorial choices of newspapers? What are the implications of these changes for the information voters are exposed to and for their political choices? We study these questions using the staggered introduction of Craigslist (CL)—the world’s largest online platform for classified advertising—across U.S. counties between 1995 and 2009. This setting allows us to separate the effect of competition for classified advertising from other changes brought about by the Internet, and to compare newspapers that relied more or less heavily on classified ads ex ante. We find that, following the entry of CL, local newspapers reliant on classified ads experienced a significant decline in the number of management and newsroom staff, including in the number of editors covering politics. These organizational changes led to a reduction in news coverage of politics and resulted in a decline in newspaper readership, particularly among readers with high political interest. Finally, we document that reduced exposure to local political news was associated with an increase in partisan voting and increased entry and success of ideologically extreme candidates in congressional elections. Taken together, our findings shed light on the determinants of the decline of print media and on its broader implications for democratic politics.

We study the psychological costs of financial constraints and their economic consequences. Using a representative survey of U.S. households, we document the prevalence of financial stress in U.S. households and a strong relationship between financial stress and measures of financial constraints. We incorporate financial stress into an otherwise standard dynamic model of consumption and labour supply. We emphasize two key results. First, both financial stress itself and naivete about financial stress are important components of a psychology-based theory of the poverty trap. Sophisticated households, instead, save extra to escape high-stress states because they understand that doing so alleviates the economic consequences of financial stress. Second, the financial stress channel dampens or reverses the counterfactual large negative wealth effect on labour earnings because relieving stress frees up cognitive resources for productive work. Financial stress also has macroeconomic implications for wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers.

Many households hold little wealth. In standard precautionary savings models, these households should not only display higher marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) but also higher future consumption growth. In contrast, we see from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics that such “hand-to-mouth” households do not display higher growth in spending. They also exhibit greater volatility of spending and adjust their spending to a greater extent through the number of categories consumed. Consistent with a role for preference heterogeneity, the panel data show that it is persistent differences across households, not current assets, that predict low consumption growth and other spending differences for the hand-to-mouth households. To identify the extent of preference heterogeneity, we consider the model of Kaplan and Violante with both liquid and illiquid assets, but allow heterogeneity in preferences. To match the data, many poor hand-to-mouth must be relatively impatient and have a high inter-temporal elasticity of substitution. The model shows that preferences predominantly explain the higher MPCs for low-asset households. Preference heterogeneity notably increases the spending impact of fiscal transfers, but only if targeted, while reducing that from interest rate cuts.