Knowledge that Transforms

What is the role of leaders in large organizations? We propose a model in which a leader helps to overcome a misalignment of followers' incentives that inhibits coordination, while adapting the organization to a changing environment. Good leadership requires vision and special personality traits such as conviction or resoluteness to enhance the credibility of mission statements and to effectively rally agents around them. Resoluteness allows leaders to overcome a time-consistency problem that arises from the fact that leaders learn about the best course of action for the organization over time. However, resoluteness also inhibits bottom-up information flow from followers. The optimal level of resoluteness depends on followers' signal quality and the corporate culture of the organization.

This article develops an elementary theory of global supply chains. We consider a world economy with an arbitrary number of countries, one factor of production, a continuum of intermediate goods and one final good. Production of the final good is sequential and subject to mistakes. In the unique free trade equilibrium, countries with lower probabilities of making mistakes at all stages specialize in later stages of production. Using this simple theoretical framework, we offer a first look at how vertical specialization shapes the interdependence of nations. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model withtwo sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes andurbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a smallfraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics changes of the birth and death schedules were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population cantrigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such ashock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, andurban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregatedeath rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues.In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced populationpressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in Europeanurbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change.Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thustrace Europe s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerentpolitical environment and the nature of cities.

I study efficient allocations in a dynamic private information economy with a continuum of individual shocks that are persistent. I formulate the problem recursively and develop a first order approach to simplify it. The main advantage of the first order approach is that it allows for a substantial reduction of the state space of the dynamic program. This makes the problem tractable and permits quantitative implementation of the problem. I provide both qualitative and quantitative solutions for a taste shock economy where the shocks follow a random walk. I show that insurance against the shocks works very differently than in an otherwise identical economy with i.i.d. shocks. Both current and continuation utility are now positively correlated with the current shock and the social planner will optimally overinsure the agents, rather than underinsure. Also, for most of the population the intertemporal wedges are significantly larger than in an i.i.d. economy.

Evidence from both psychology and economics indicates that individuals give statements that appear to overestimate their ability compared to that of others. We test three theories that predict such relative overconfidence. The first theory argues that overconfidence can be generated by Bayesian updating from a common prior and truthful statements if individuals do not know their true type. The second theory suggests that self-image concerns asymmetrically affect the choice to receive new information about one's abilities, and this asymmetry can produce overconfidence. The third theory is that overconfidence is induced by the desire to send positive signals to others about one's own skill; this suggests either a bias in judgement, strategic lying, or both. We formulate this theory precisely. Using a large data set of relative ability judgements about two cognitive tests, we reject the restrictions imposed by the Bayesian model and also reject a key prediction of the self-image models that individuals with optimistic beliefs will be less likely to search for further information about their skill because this information might shatter their self-image. We provide evidence that personality traits strongly affect relative ability judgements in a pattern that is consistent with the third theory of social signalling. Our results together suggest that overconfidence in statements is more likely to be induced by social concerns than by either of the other two factors.

In an economy with distortionary taxes on labour, can subsidies on day care, financed by increased taxes, raise welfare by encouraging women with small children to work? We show, within a stylized life-cycle framework, that the Ramsey optimal policy consists in equalizing consumption/leisure wedges over the life cycle. A simple way to implement this is to make day care expenses tax deductible. Modifying and calibrating our model to fit some key facts about labour supply in Germany, we find that the reform that maximizes a distribution-neutral social welfare function involves subsidizing day care at a rate of 50% and leads to a near doubling of labour supply for mothers with small children. The overall welfare gain from this reform corresponds to a 0.4 percent increase in consumption.

According to the consensus view in growth and development economics, cross country differences in per-capita income largely reflect differences in countries’ total factor productivity. We argue that this view has powerful implications for patterns of capital flows: everything else equal, countries with faster productivity growth should invest more, and attract more foreign capital. We then show that the pattern of net capital flows across developing countries is not consistent with this prediction. If anything, capital seems to flow more to countries that invest and grow less. We argue that this result —which we call the allocation puzzle — constitutes an important challenge for

In this paper I develop and estimate a model of on-the-job search in which risk averse workers choose search effort and can borrow or save using a single risk free asset. I derive the implications for optimal savings behavior in this environment and relate this to the frictions that characterize the endogenous earnings process implied by on-the-job search. Savings behavior depends in a very intuitive way on the rate at which offers are received, the rate at which jobs are destroyed, and a worker's current rank in the wage distribution. The implication is that workers, who are identical in terms of preferences and opportunities, have substantially different savings behavior depending on their history and current position in the wage distribution. The mechanism that generates the substantial differences in savings behavior in the model is the dynamic of the “wage ladder” resulting from the search process. There is an important asymmetry between the incremental wage increases generated by onthe-job search (climbing the ladder) and the drop in income associated with job loss (falling off the ladder). The behavior of workers in low paying jobs is primarily governed by the expectation of wage growth, while the behavior of workers near the top of the distribution is driven by the possibility of job loss. The distributions of earnings, wealth and consumption implied by the model (suitably aggregated) align reasonably well with the data, with the notable exception of implying substantially less concentration of wealth among the richest one percent of the population.

This article studies different methods of assigning a good to budget-constrained agents. Schemes that assign the good randomly and allow resale may outperform the competitive market in terms of Utilitarian efficiency. The socially optimal mechanism involves random assignment at a discount—an in-kind subsidy—and a cash incentive to discourage low-valuation individuals from claiming the good.

I explicitly derive the optimal dynamic incentive contract in a standard continuous-time agency setting where the agent has a shirking action. My solution generates two dynamic contracts new to the literature. Both contracts include phases when the agent frequently shirks. In one contract, the shirking phases are relaxation periods rewarding the agent for good performance. In the other, the shirking phases are suspension-type arrangements punishing the agent for poor performance. In addition, I also explore the relationships between optimal contracting and taxes, bargaining, and renegotiation. Copyright 2013, Oxford University Press.