Knowledge that Transforms

The paper characterizes the choice rules that can be implemented when agents are unable to commit themselves not to renegotiate the mechanism.

Principal-agent models are studied, in which outcomes conditional on the agent's action are uncertain, and the agent's behaviour therefore unobservable. For a model with bounded agent's utility, conditions are given under which the first-best equilibrium can be approximated arbitrarily closely by contracts relating payment to observable outcomes. For general models, it is shown that the solution may not always be obtained by using the agent's first-order conditions as constraint. General conditions of Lagrangean type are given for problems in which contracts are finite-dimensional.

The paper uses a simple multitask career concern model in order to analyse the incentives of government agencies' officials. Incentives are impaired by the agency pursuing multiple missions. A lack of focus is even more problematic in the case of fuzzy missions, that is when outsiders are uncertain about the exact nature of the missions actually pursued by the agency. Consequently agencies pursuing multiple missions receive less autonomy. The paper further shows that professionalization creates a sense of mission for the agency, and that the specialization of officials raises their incentives. Last, the paper compares its predictions with the stylized facts on Government bureaucracies.

The author proposes modeling boundedly rational agents as agents who are not logically omniscient, that is, who do not know all logical or mathematical implications of what they know. He shows how a subjective state space can be derived as part of a subjective expected utility representation of the agent's preferences. The representation exists under very weak conditions. The representation uses the familiar language of probability, utility, and states of the world in the hope that this makes this model of bounded rationality easier to use in applications. Copyright 1999 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

This paper proposes a new view of the forces in the political process that cause governments to accumulate debt. The analysis builds on a model of redistributive politics that, contrary to median voter models, does not restrict the set of policies that politicians can propose. I show that deficits occur even in an environment where voters (and periods) are homogeneous. This is an environment where previous political theories of debt would predict budget balance. In the model deficits are a way for candidates to better target promises to voters and are therefore used as tools of redistributive politics. The main contribution of the analysis is to show that the same forces that push candidates to redistribute resources across voters to pursue political advantage are forces that generate budget deficits. Copyright 1999 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

This paper studies the properties of real-time decentralized information processing as a model of human information processing in organizations. Real-time decentralized processing—which models the computation of decision rules in a temporal decision problem by members of an organization—captures both the cost of computation in terms of the members' time and the constraints imposed by computational delay on the use of recent information. Unlike a batch processing model, it has no single measure of delay because decisions are computed from data of heterogeneous lags. Furthermore, decentralization does not unambiguously reduce delay, because processing a message precludes processing current data.

The paper studies how a person's concern for a future career may influence his or her incentives to put in effort or make decisions on the job. In the model, the person's productive abilities are revealed over time through observations of performance. There are no explicit output-contingent contracts, but since the wage in each period is based on expected output and expected output depends on assessed ability, an “implicit contract” links today's performance to future wages. An incentive problem arises from the person's ability and desire to influence the learning process, and therefore the wage process, by taking unobserved actions that affect today's performance. The fundamental incongruity in preferences is between the individual's concern for human capital returns and the firm's concern for financial returns. The two need be only weakly related. It is shown that career motives can be beneficial as well as detrimental, depending on how well the two kinds of capital returns are aligned.

This paper considers a dynamic model of Tiebout-like migration between communities that utilize distinct allocation procedures for public goods. At issue is whether voluntary or compulsory procedures are more likely to prevail over time. We model infinitely lived individuals who make repeated, sequential location decisions over one of two communities. Each community uses a distinct mechanism for allocating public goods. The first is one in which contributions are given voluntarily by the citizenry of the community. The second is a compulsory scheme by which individuals are taxed proportionately to wealth with the tax determined by a majority vote. Opportunities to accumulate wealth exist via accumulation of public capital. The Markov Perfect equilibria of the dynamic game are studied. Our main result shows that when accumulated wealth converges to a steady state, individuals' locational choices eventually “select” the involuntary provision mechanism. This holds despite the fact that unanimous location in the voluntary provision community may in many cases remain as a Nash equilibrium of the static game each period. We also describe conditions under which voluntary provision survives. These conditions require that accumulation of capital fails to decrease wealth dispersion over time. The results are shown to be consistent with findings relating inequality to school choice.

This paper introduces a dynamic, structural model of household consumption decisions in which elderly families consider the effects of uncertain future medical expenses when deciding current levels of consumption. The model with uncertain medical expenses implies a potentially important role for precautionary saving incentives to explain slow rates of dissaving among elderly Americans during retirement. Rather than just simulating the stochastic dynamic model, preference parameters are estimated using panel data on health, wealth and expenditures for retired families. The health uncertainty model predicts consumption levels closer to observed expenditures than a life cycle model with uncertain longevity. However, elderly families typically dissave their financial assets more slowly than even the baseline health uncertainty model predicts is optimal. Copyright 1999 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

This paper is concerned with the interaction between price and inventory decisions in retailing firms and its implications for the dynamics of markups and the existence of sales promotions. We consider a model where a monopolistically competitive retailer decides price and inventories, and assumes lump-sum costs when placing orders or changing nominal prices. In this model, the existence of stockout probabilities and fixed ordering costs generate a cyclical price behaviour characterized by long periods without nominal price changes and short periods with very low prices (i.e. sales promotions). We estimate this model using a unique longitudinal dataset with information about retail and wholesale prices, inventories, orders, and sales for several brands in a supermarket chain. Based on the estimated model we perform several counterfactual experiments that show the important role that inventories and fixed ordering costs play in the dynamics of retail prices and the frequency of sales promotions in this dataset.