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Uncertainty, Information Acquisition, and Price Swings in Asset Markets

Review of Economic Studies 2015 82(4), 1533-1567
This article analyses costly information acquisition in asset markets with Knightian uncertainty about the asset fundamentals. In these markets, acquiring information not only reduces the expected variability of the fundamentals for a given distribution ( i.e . risk). It also mitigates the uncertainty about the true distribution of the fundamentals. Agents who lack knowledge of this distribution cannot correctly interpret the information other investors impound into the price. We show that, due to uncertainty aversion, the incentives to reduce uncertainty by acquiring information increase as more investors acquire information. When uncertainty is high enough, information acquisition decisions become strategic complements and lead to multiple equilibria. Swift changes in information demand can drive large price swings even after small changes in Knightian uncertainty.

Simulated Non-Parametric Estimation of Dynamic Models

Review of Economic Studies 2009 76(2), 413-450
This paper introduces a new class of parameter estimators for dynamic models, called simulated non-parametric estimators (SNEs). The SNE minimizes appropriate distances between non-parametric conditional (or joint) densities estimated from sample data and non-parametric conditional (or joint) densities estimated from data simulated out of the model of interest. Sample data and model-simulated data are smoothed with the same kernel, which considerably simplifies bandwidth selection for the purpose of implementing the estimator. Furthermore, the SNE displays the same asymptotic efficiency properties as the maximum-likelihood estimator as soon as the model is Markov in the observable variables. The methods introduced in this paper are fairly simple to implement, and possess finite sample properties that are well approximated by the asymptotic theory. We illustrate these features within typical estimation problems that arise in financial economics.