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Racial Discrimination and the Social Contract: Evidence from U.S. Army Enlistment During WWII

Review of Economic Studies 2026 93(2), 1261-1295
This paper documents that the Pearl Harbor attack triggered a sharp increase in volunteer enlistment rates of American men, the magnitude of the increase was smaller for Black men than for White men and the Black–White gap was larger in counties with higher levels of racial discrimination. The results suggest that political exclusion and discrimination can undermine support for the government during critical times such as war.

The Causes of Ukrainian Famine Mortality, 1932–33

Review of Economic Studies 2025 92(5), 3276-3305
We construct a novel panel dataset for interwar Soviet Union to study the causes of Ukrainian famine mortality (Holodomor) during 1932–3 and document several facts: (1) Ukraine produced enough food in 1932 to avoid famine in Ukraine; (2) 1933 mortality in the Soviet Union was increasing in the pre-famine ethnic Ukrainian population share and (3) was unrelated to food productivity across regions; (4) this pattern exists even outside of Ukraine; (5) migration restrictions exacerbated mortality; (6) actual and planned grain procurement were increasing and actual and planned grain retention (production minus procurement) were decreasing in the ethnic Ukrainian population share across regions. The results imply that anti-Ukrainian bias in Soviet policy contributed to high Ukrainian famine mortality, and that this bias systematically targeted ethnic Ukrainians across the Soviet Union.

The Institutional Causes of China's Great Famine, 1959–1961

Review of Economic Studies 2015 82(4), 1568-1611
This article studies the causes of China's Great Famine, during which 16.5 to 45 million individuals perished in rural areas. We document that average rural food retention during the famine was too high to generate a severe famine without rural inequality in food availability; that there was significant variance in famine mortality rates across rural regions; and that rural mortality rates were positively correlated with per capita food production, a surprising pattern that is unique to the famine years. We provide evidence that an inflexible and progressive government procurement policy (where procurement could not adjust to contemporaneous production and larger shares of expected production were procured from more productive regions) was necessary for generating this pattern and that this policy was a quantitatively important contributor to overall famine mortality.

Immigrants and the Making of America

Review of Economic Studies 2020 87(1), 382-419 open access
We study the effects of European immigration to the U.S. during the Age of Mass Migration (1850–1920) on economic prosperity. Exploiting cross-county variation in immigration that arises from the interaction of fluctuations in aggregate immigrant flows and of the gradual expansion of the railway network, we find that counties with more historical immigration have higher income, less poverty, less unemployment, higher rates of urbanization, and greater educational attainment today. The long-run effects seem to capture the persistence of short-run benefits, including greater industrialization, increased agricultural productivity, and more innovation.