Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract Asymmetric volatility concerns the relation of returns to future expected volatility. Much is known from option prices about the marginal risk-neutral distributions (RNDs) of S&P 500 returns and of relative changes in future expected volatility (VIX). While the bivariate RND cannot be inferred from the marginals, we propose a novel identification based on long-dated index options. We estimate the risk-neutral asymmetric volatility implied correlation (AVIC) and find it to be significantly lower than its realized counterpart. We interpret the economics of the asymmetric volatility correlation risk premium and use AVIC to predict returns, volatility, and risk-neutral quantities.

Abstract The paper assesses how intelligence, education, and learning affect the disposition effect using our exhaustive NASDAQ OMX Tallinn dataset. We employ survival analysis to show that higher intelligence and stronger learning abilities as measured by education level and the type of education lessen the disposition effect. More highly educated and intelligent investors also learn faster by trading. We find that mathematical abilities are beneficial for overcoming the disposition effect and propose that learning ability is one of the most important components of intelligence in affecting the disposition effect.

Abstract This paper explores how banks react to an exogenous shock caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and how the structure of the banking system affects economic development following the shock. Independent banks based in the disaster areas increase their risk-based capital ratios after the hurricane, while those that are part of a bank holding company on average do not. The effect on independent banks mainly comes from the subgroup of highly capitalized banks. These independent and highly capitalized banks increase their holdings in government securities and reduce their total loan exposures to non-financial firms, while also increasing new lending to these firms. With regard to local economic development, affected counties with a relatively large share of independent banks and relatively high average bank capital ratios show higher economic growth than other affected counties following the catastrophic event.

Abstract We develop a model where banks invest in reserves and loans, and trade loans on the interbank market to deal with liquidity shocks. Two types of equilibria emerge, depending on the degree of credit market competition and the level of aggregate liquidity risk. In one equilibrium, all banks keep enough reserves and remain solvent. In the other, some banks default with positive probability. The latter equilibrium exists when competition is weak and large liquidity shocks are unlikely. The model delivers several implications concerning the relationship between competition, aggregate credit, and welfare.

Abstract I test whether the display format of market data affects the trading performance and behavior of retail investors. To do so, I exploit a large brokerage dataset covering a period during which the market information provided to the broker’s customers changed in format, but not in content. I find that a simultaneous display of cross-stock market data reduces the cognitive cost of monitoring the market and thus helps investors obtain better execution prices. In particular, investors better mitigate non-execution and adverse-selection risks when trading with limit orders. Hence, the display format of market data matters for the individual investor.

Abstract Employee matching grant schemes are coordination mechanisms that reduce free-riding by socially conscious employee-donors. Matching schemes coupled with lower take-home pay than offered by non-matching firms will survive capital and labor market competition if employee type is not observable and socially conscious employees are more productive or value working together. Matching can enhance employee welfare and raise more for charity without reducing profits. We document that matching firms have higher labor productivity and are more likely to be ranked as one of the “100 Best” employers. The result is robust to managerial entrenchment concerns and is not confined to the high-tech sector.

Abstract Do relationship banks help firms in distress? Combining a survey-based measure of relationship lending with unique credit registry data, I examine the effect of relationship lending on loan performance. I find that the same firm in the same time period is more likely to become delinquent on a relationship-based loan relative to a transaction-based loan. Higher delinquencies do not, however, result in more defaults or less loan recoveries for relationship banks when loans mature relative to transactional banks. Conditional on past delinquencies, relationship banks are more likely to offer follow-up financing and extract rents. Consistent with theory, relationship banks tolerate temporarily bad results, yet extract rents and secure future business in return. The paper provides new empirical evidence for rent extraction by relationship banks that have been lenient to distressed firms in the past.

Abstract The successful bail-in of creditors in African Bank, a small South African monoline lender, provides an opportunity to evaluate the intended and unintended consequences of new resolution tools. Using a dataset that matches quarterly, daily, and financial-instrument level data, I show that the bail-in led to money-market funds “breaking the buck”, triggering significant redemptions and some financial contagion. To limit potential systemic effects, the authorities used complementary interventions, including imposing discretionary liquidity restrictions on mutual funds and market-making facilities for affected financial instruments. This supported a sustainable restructuring of the bank and reduced financial spillovers. The lesson is that future interventions using these new resolution tools should take into account the potential unintended systemic implications, particularly in smaller jurisdictions where there is a high degree of interconnectedness between bank and nonbank financial institutions.

Abstract We study whether industrial firms risk-shift in response to distress risk increases induced through hurricane strikes. Using new proxies capturing deliberate managerial decisions about the risk of a firm’s operating segment portfolio, differences tests suggest that hurricane strikes prompt moderately, but not highly, distressed firms to skew their asset mixes toward riskier segments by shutting down low-risk, high-average-Q segments. In turn, the moderately distressed firms observe abnormally high failure rates after a hurricane strike. Employing covenant violation data, we offer further evidence that creditor control prevents highly distressed firms from raising their risk. Our conclusions extend those of other studies by suggesting that moderate distress risk levels can lead the managers of industrial firms to not only engage in risk-taking, but, in fact, in risk-shifting.

Abstract The capital structure irrelevance argument of Modigliani and Miller (1958) implies that the use of debt or leases should have no impact on firm values. This classical argument leaves out several important considerations crucial for the result, in particular, counterparty credit risk. We re-examine the capital structure problem for firms that can utilize debt and leases in the presence of counterparty risk. Our numerical and empirical estimates show a negative term structure of lease rates that steepens as a function of counterparty risk. Moreover, we document numerical evidence for the complementary relationship between debt and leases in the presence of counterparty risk.