Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract From January 2011 through March 2018, the Bank of Japan purchased equity index exchange-traded funds (ETFs) worth about 3.5% of GDP. Identification of the effect of central bank ETF purchases on stock valuations and corporate responses is via differently-weighted and changing stock indices. BOJ purchases lift valuations, increase share issuances, and increase total assets. On average, the latter increase is due to cash and short-term securities rather than capital investment. However, firms with worse corporate governance do increase capital investment. These findings suggest central bank equity purchases are a problematic tool for stimulating economic growth through high broad-based private-sector corporate investment.

Abstract With zero capital structure rebalancing costs, dynamic trade-off theory predicts that firms stay at their leverage targets with more profitable firms staying at higher leverage. This prediction is rejected by the robustly negative correlation between leverage and profitability. When rebalancing costs are added to this theory, it predicts a positive leverage–profitability correlation only in periods where companies pay these costs and actively rebalance their capital structures. However, we show that the correlation is negative when firms issue debt and distribute the proceeds to shareholders—precisely the case where the theory predicts it should be positive. Our results thus resurrect the leverage–profitability puzzle.

Abstract This study focuses on the launch phase of the leading reward-based crowdfunding market—Kickstarter. It documents the behavior of male and female entrepreneurs in raising early stage capital. We find that women share as entrepreneurs in the platform (34.7%) does not equal to their share in the overall population, and they are concentrated in stereotyped sectors, both as entrepreneurs and as backers. We also find that women do not set lower funding goals than men, they enjoy higher rates of success than men, even after controlling for project categories and funding goals, and that backers of both genders have a tendency to fund entrepreneurs of their own gender. Our survey of Kickstarter backers finds evidence of taste-based discrimination by male backers.

Abstract We define a disastrous default as the default of a systemic entity. Such an event is expected to have a negative effect on the economy and to be contagious. Bringing macroeconomic structure to a no-arbitrage asset-pricing framework, we exploit prices of disaster-exposed assets (credit and equity derivatives) to extract information on (i) the expected influence of a disastrous default on consumption and (ii) the probability of a financial meltdown. Using European data, we find that the returns of disaster-exposed assets are consistent with a systemic default being followed by a 2% decrease in consumption. The recessionary influence of disastrous defaults implies that financial instruments whose payoffs are exposed to such credit events carry substantial risk premiums. We also produce systemic risk indicators based on the probability of observing a certain number of systemic defaults or a sharp drop of consumption.

Abstract In the investment theory, firms with high expected investment growth earn higher expected returns than firms with low expected investment growth, holding investment and expected profitability constant. Building on cross-sectional growth forecasts with Tobin’s q, operating cash flows, and change in return on equity as predictors, an expected growth factor earns an average premium of 0.84% per month (t = 10.27) in the 1967–2018 sample. The q5 model, which augments the Hou–Xue–Zhang (2015, Rev. Finan. Stud., 28, 650–705) q-factor model with the expected growth factor, shows strong explanatory power in the cross-section and outperforms the Fama–French (2018, J. Finan. Econom., 128, 234–252) six-factor model.

Abstract We estimate a continuous-time model for the stock market index where the stochastic volatility and crash probability depend on the realized spot variance and the stock market illiquidity. We find that market illiquidity is a useful economic covariate in the modeling of time-varying stock market crash risk embedded in index options. The relative contribution of spot variance in the time-varying crash risk is weakened once the market illiquidity variable is added to the model, and out-of-sample option pricing error also improves. Examining the relationship between market illiquidity and option-implied crash risk, we find that the availability of arbitrage capital and adverse selection facing liquidity providers are potential economic links. Our study highlights the benefits of adding a market illiquidity measure to index return models with time-varying crash risk.

Abstract Firms rely on patenting and trade secrecy to protect their intellectual property. We study how changes in the trade-off between patenting and secrecy affect firms’ stock liquidity and financing outcomes. We show that an international trade agreement (TRIPS) that strengthened patent protection led to a 10.2% increase in patenting, accompanied by a 14.0%–27.1% improvement in stock liquidity for firms in patent-reliant industries. This in turn allows the affected firms to increase equity financing by 1.9% and reduce leverage by 5.9%. Our results suggest that policies that promote use of patenting over secrecy can reduce informational frictions in equity markets.

Abstract Theoretical models have long recognized the role of investor disagreements in the marketplace, but little evidence is documented regarding how belief dispersion affects trading activities in the broad equity market. Using over three decades of data from a survey of US households, we introduced a novel measure of household macroeconomic belief dispersion and document its positive relationship with market-wide stock trading volume, even after controlling for an array of professional analysts’ belief dispersion. Results are more pronounced for the belief dispersion among households who are more likely to own stocks. Furthermore, we show that the household belief dispersion is priced in the cross-section of stock returns, whereas that among professional analysts is not.

Abstract Previous work shows large differences in fees for S&P 500 index funds and other funds and suggests that investors suffer wealth losses investing in high-fee funds when similar low-fee funds are available. In contrast, the neoclassical model of mutual funds (Berk and van Binsbergen, 2015, J. Financ. Econ., 118, 1–20) argues that percentage fees are irrelevant, as fund size will adjust in equilibrium such that net alphas are equal to zero. We show that fees matter from an investor perspective. We document (i) a strong negative association between net-of-fee fund performance and fees in a sample of all US and international equity funds, (ii) economically large, robust, persistent, and pervasive fee dispersion in the mutual fund industry, and (iii) important economic effects for investors. During the sample period, the mutual fund industry has generated a total value lost (i.e., a negative net value added) of 125 billion USD, coming predominantly from high-fee funds.

Abstract Directed links in cash flow networks affect the cross-section of risk premia through three channels. In a tractable consumption-based equilibrium asset pricing model, we obtain closed-form solutions that disentangle these channels for arbitrary directed networks. First, shocks that can propagate through the economy command a higher market price of risk. Second, shock-receiving assets earn an extra premium since their valuation ratios drop upon shocks in connected assets. Third, a hedge effect pushes risk premia down: when a shock propagates through the economy, an asset that is unconnected becomes relatively more attractive and its valuation ratio increases.