Knowledge that Transforms

In the context of an equilibrium asset-pricing model, the dynamics of the instantaneous real interest rate and the instantaneous rate of expected inflation are estimated. Unlike previous models, we allow real interest rates and inflation to be mutually dependent processes. The model is estimated as a state-space system that includes observations on various maturity Treasury bills and NBER-ASA survey forecasts of inflation. Over the period 1968-88, we find evidence that instantaneous real interest rates and expected inflation are significantly negatively correlated. Real interest rates also display greater volatility and weaker mean reversion than expected inflation. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

The Modigliani and Miller propositions on the irrelevancy of capital structure and dividends are shown to be valid in a large class of models with asymmetric information. The main assumption is that managerial compensation is chosen optimally. This differs from most of the recent articles on this topic, which impose by fiat a suboptimal contract. Even when imperfections internal to the firm preclude optimal investment, there is a separation between incentives and financing. We conclude that corporations should move toward contracts with better incentives, and that new models should be built that recognize the limitations to optimal contracting.

A simple classical Walrasian framework is proposed for the study of manipulation among asymmetrically informed risk-averse traders in financial markets, and it is used to analyze the occurrence of a market breakdown in the trading system. Such a phenomenon occurs when the outsiders refuse to trade with the insiders because the informational motive for trade of the insider outweighs her hedging motive. We demonstrate the robustness of our results by proving that the market collapse condition extends not only to the linear strategy function, but to the whole class of feasible nonlinear strategy functions. Implications for insider-trading regulation are sketched.

We examine the volatility implications of around-the-clock foreign exchange trading with transaction data on futures contracts from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London International Financial Futures Exchange. We find higher U.S.–European and U.S.–Japanese exchange-rate volatilities during U.S. trading hours and higher European cross-rate volatilities during European trading hours. While the disclosure of private information through trading may partly explain these volatility patterns, we conclude that the increased volatility is more likely driven by macroeconomic news announcements. An analysis of inter- and intraday data also reveals that volatility increases at times that coincide with the release of U.S. macroeconomic news.

The extent to which the observed procedures for selling new issues are efficient is studied. We show that a posted-price mechanism, in conjunction with nonbinding preplay communication and participation restrictions, leads to an allocation of the security (and payment) that maximizes the seller’s expected revenue, given the informational constraints imposed by the optimizing incentives of the potential buyers.

A general approach to testing serial dependence restrictions implied from financial models is developed. In particular, we discuss joint serial dependence restrictions imposed by random walk, market microstructure, and rational expectations models recently examined in the literature. This approach incorporates more information from the data by explicitly modeling dependencies induced by the use of overlapping observations. Because the estimation problem is sufficiently simple in this framework, the test statistics have simple representations in terms of only a few unknown parameters. As a result, relatively good size properties are attained in small samples. In addition, the benefit to overlapping observations and the advantage of examining multiperiod time series are explicitly quantified.

A model of a noncompetitive speculative market is analyzed in which privately informed traders and market makers are risk averse. Market liquidity is found to be nonmonotonic in the number of informed traders, their degree of risk aversion, and the precision of their information. It is also shown that increased liquidity trading leads to reduced priced efficiency, and that, under endogenous information acquisition, market liquidity may also be nonmonotonic in the variance of liquidity trades.

We examine the intraday relationship between returns and returns volatility in the stock index and stock index futures markets. Our results indicate a strong intermarket dependence in the volatility of the cash and futures returns. Price innovations that originate in either the stock or futures markets can predict the future volatility in the other market. We show that this relationship persists even during periods in which the dependence in the returns themselves appears to weaken. The findings are robust to controlling for potential market frictions such as asynchronous trading in the stock index. Our results have implications for understanding the pattern of information flows between the two markets.

The effect of financial policy on a firm’s incentives to maintain its reputation for producing a high-quality product is analyzed. It is demonstrated that in certain situations debt will reduce a firm’s ability to credibly offer high-quality products and, as a consequence, will reduce its value. However, for firms with assets that have high salvage values in liquidation, debt may increase their ability to credibly offer high-quality products and, therefore, increase their values.

In a security market with asymmetrically informed participants, trades are signals of private information. In this article, new measures of trade informativeness are proposed based on a decomposition of the variance of changes in the efficient price into trade-correlated and -uncorrelated components. The trade-correlated component has a natural interpretation as an absolute measure of trade informativeness. The ratio of this component to the total variance is a relative measure (i.e., a proportion normalized with respect to the total public information). For a sample NYSE-listed companies, trade are found to be more informative for small firms in both absolute and relative senses. From an analysis of intraday patterns, it appears that trades are in absolute terms more informative at the beginning of trading, but slightly less informative in relative terms. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.