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Kicking Maturity Down the Road: Early Refinancing and Maturity Management in the Corporate Bond Market

Review of Financial Studies 2018 31(8), 3061-3097
This paper examines debt maturity management through early refinancing, where firms retire their outstanding bonds before the due date and simultaneously issue new ones as replacements. Speculative-grade firms frequently refinance their corporate bonds early to extend maturity, particularly under accommodating credit supply conditions, leading to a procyclical maturity structure. In contrast, investment-grade firms do not manage their maturity in the same manner. I exploit the protection period of callable bonds to show that the maturity extension is not driven by unobservable confounding factors. The evidence is consistent with speculative-grade firms dynamically managing maturity to mitigate refinancing risk. Received June 6, 2016; editorial decision September 21, 2017 by Editor Philip Strahan.

Flight to Safety: How Economic Downturns Affect Talent Flows to Startups

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(3), 837-881
Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how startup job seekers’ search and application behavior changed during the COVID-19 downturn. We find that workers shifted their searches and applications away from less-established startups and toward more-established ones, even within the same individual over time. At the firm level, this shift was not offset by an influx of new job seekers. Less-established startups experienced a relative decline in the quantity and quality of applications, ultimately affecting their hiring. Our findings uncover a flight-to-safety channel in the labor market that may amplify the procyclical nature of entrepreneurial activities.

Tax Policy and Abnormal Investment Behavior

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(10), 2971-3023
This paper studies tax-minimizing investment, whereby firms tilt capital purchases toward year-end to reduce taxes. We use this pattern to characterize how taxes affect investment behavior. We exploit variation in firm tax positions from administrative data to confirm that tax minimization causes spikes. Spikes increase when firms face financial constraints or higher option values of waiting. Cumulative investment does not completely reverse after spikes. We develop an investment model with tax asymmetries to rationalize these patterns. Both depreciation motives (later investments face lower effective tax rates) and option value motives (tax asymmetry implies time-varying opportunities to minimize taxes) are necessary to fit the data.

A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Limited Household Risk Sharing

Review of Financial Studies 2024 37(8), 2461-2509
We present a theory in which the interaction between limited sharing of idiosyncratic labor income risk and labor adjustment costs (that endogenously arise through search frictions) determines interest rate dynamics. In the general equilibrium, the interaction of these two ingredients relates bond risk premiums, cross-sectional skewness of income growth, and labor market tightness. Our model rationalizes an upward-sloping average yield curve and predicts a negative relation between labor market tightness and bond risk premiums. We provide evidence for our theory’s mechanism and predictions.

Asset Pricing with Fading Memory

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(5), 2190-2245
Building on evidence that lifetime experiences shape individuals’ macroeconomic expectations, we study asset prices in an economy in which a representative agent learns with fading memory about unconditional mean endowment growth. With IID fundamentals, constant risk aversion, and memory decay calibrated to microdata, the model generates a high and strongly countercyclical objective equity premium, while the subjective equity premium is virtually constant. Consistent with this theory, experienced payout growth (a weighted average of past growth rates) is negatively related to future stock market excess returns and subjective expectations errors in surveys, and positively to analysts’ forecasts of long-run earnings growth.

Financial Constraints and Corporate Environmental Policies

Review of Financial Studies 2022 35(2), 576-635
This paper documents evidence that financial constraints increase firms’ toxic emissions given that firms actively trade off abatement costs against potential legal liabilities. Exploring three quasi-natural experiments in which firms’ financial resources are likely exogenously affected, we find that relaxing financial constraints reduces U.S. public firms’ toxic releases. The effects of financial constraints on toxic releases are amplified when regulatory enforcement and external monitoring weaken. Overall, our evidence highlights the real effects of financial constraints in the form of environmental pollution, which is a costly negative externality imposed on society and public health.

Implied Stochastic Volatility Models

Review of Financial Studies 2021 34(1), 394-450
This paper proposes “implied stochastic volatility models” designed to fit option-implied volatility data and implements a new estimation method for such models. The method is based on explicitly linking observed shape characteristics of the implied volatility surface to the coefficient functions that define the stochastic volatility model. The method can be applied to estimate a fully flexible nonparametric model, or to estimate by the generalized method of moments any arbitrary parametric stochastic volatility model, affine or not. Empirical evidence based on S&P 500 index options data show that the method is stable and performs well out of sample.

Time-Varying Risk Premium and Unemployment Risk across Age Groups

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(8), 3624-3673
We show that time-varying risk premium in financial markets can explain a key, yet puzzling, feature of labor markets: the large differences in unemployment risk across worker age groups over the business cycle. Our search model features a time-varying risk premium and learning about unobserved heterogeneity in worker productivity. Their interaction generates large real effects through firms’ labor policies. Our model predicts higher unemployment risk of younger workers relative to prime-age workers when risk premium is high, and the employment ratio of prime-age to young workers to be more cyclical in high beta industries. We find empirical support for these predictions.

Competition and Ownership Structure of Closely Held Firms

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(5), 1583-1626
We study how product market competition affects firms’ ownership structures using a large sample of closely held firms in eighteen European countries. We show that firms operating in more competitive environments have lower inside ownership and that the stakes of their outside shareholders are more dispersed. These results are explained by competition increasing the need to raise external equity and reducing private control benefits. Our findings suggest that, by changing corporate ownership structure, competition mitigates incentive misalignment among shareholders, leading to better firm performance and gains in economic efficiency.

The Financial Consequences of Pretrial Detention

Review of Financial Studies 2025 38(11), 3329-3373
In the United States, a significant number of criminal defendants are held in pretrial detention and face substantial financial burdens. Matching individual-level criminal case records to household-level financial data, we exploit the quasi-random assignment of court commissioners to study how pretrial detention affects household solvency. We find that pretrial detention results in higher rates of household insolvency, driven by higher rates of chapter 7 bankruptcies and judgment liens, and higher foreclosure rates during periods of decreasing house prices. We document that the effects spill over to family members and show that home equity can cushion households from insolvency.