Knowledge that Transforms

Do impact investors seek impact, or merely “impact wash”? We provide systematic evidence on the nonfinancial determinants of impact investing. Impact investors focus on firms aligned with the priorities of the federal government and disproportionately invest in economically disadvantaged regions. While we find high levels of coinvestment between impact and traditional investors, we also show that impact investors influence the strategies of their traditional coinvestors, are more likely to fund firms in nascent industries, and invest countercyclically. Finally, we characterize investment heterogeneity based on a novel classification of impact investment theses, with a focus on climate, environment, and jobs and equity.

Increasing personal bankruptcy protection raises consumers’ desire to borrow and lenders’ cost of extending credit; the impact on equilibrium borrowing is ambiguous. Using bankruptcy protection changes between 1999 and 2005 across U.S. states, we find that borrowers respond to greater protection by increasing their unsecured debt. Border county estimates suggest that local economic conditions do not drive these results. Borrowers pay more for protection through higher interest rates, yet delinquency is unaffected. Our results indicate that rising borrower demand outstripped decreasing supply. Increased protections did not reduce the aggregate level of household debt but affected the composition of borrowing.

We introduce the nonlinear arbitrage correction (NAC), the residual that renders a linear benchmark model arbitrage-free while preserving the law of one price. The price of NAC captures the marginal Sharpe ratio increase consistent with no-arbitrage and upper-bounds the constrained Hansen–Jagannathan distance. Using four decades of international equity, currency, and factor returns, NAC is strongly countercyclical, peaking during crises when linear models turn negative. The implied Sharpe ratio increase reaches 0.3, underscoring its economic relevance. While linear models perform well on average, they fail in distressed states, underpricing nonlinear payoffs. Incorporating NAC restores positivity and stabilizes pricing across regimes.

We argue that heightened regulation on large banks contributed to the rise in fragility of smaller banks revealed by the 2023 regional bank crisis. In 2018, regulators restricted Wells Fargo, the third largest U.S. bank, from growing its total assets. We estimate this asset cap led Wells Fargo to give up deposits amounting to 2.2% of aggregate bank deposits. These deposits, primarily uninsured, were reallocated to banks geographically proximate to Wells Fargo, including smaller, less regulated banks. In turn, these banks experienced higher deposit outflows once monetary tightening commenced and saw their stock prices plummet during the 2023 stress.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly consuming and producing huge amounts of data. We propose a social learning model of AI, emphasizing a data-AI feedback loop: data quality affects AI productivity, which influences AI adoption and, consequently, the composition (AI versus human-generated) and quality of future data. Calibrated to evidence on synthetic training loops, the model predicts hump-shaped labor dynamics—short-term displacement that partially reverses as data quality deteriorates. A Grossman–Stiglitz-style externality emerges: AI adopters free-ride on the human-generated actions that supply the novel information on which AI itself relies. In a competitive market, AI should be taxed to correct the data-quality externality; a concentrated AI industry overcorrects, making a subsidy optimal.

There are two major institutional investors in the syndicated loan market: collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and loan mutual funds. CLOs are closed-end funds while loan funds are open-end funds that issue claims that are redeemable on demand. In this paper, we examine whether CLOs provide arbitrage capital that contributes to the resilience of loan funds. We find that CLOs act as shock absorbers, providing liquidity through par-building trades when loan funds experience large outflows. However, CLO-provided liquidity is limited to par build–eligible loans, leading to potential flow-induced fire sales among par build–ineligible loans. (JEL G23, G38

We show that positive flows to active mutual funds with high recent returns partially reverse at longer horizons. This outcome is robust across a broad range of alternative specifications. Reversal occurs from greater outflows associated with high prior returns, not reduced inflows. We test theories to explain the reversal: investment life cycles, tax loss selling, and a behavioral “disappointment” hypothesis based on investors’ overreaction to positive returns. While both tax loss selling and short investor life cycles can contribute, the evidence supports a role for investor disappointment, whereby investors redeem their capital when return performance fails to meet expectations.

A fundamental concern about green investing is that it may crowd out political support for public policies addressing negative externalities. We examine this concern in a preregistered experiment conducted shortly before a real referendum on a climate law in Switzerland. We find that offering an opportunity to invest in a climate-friendly fund does not reduce individual support for climate regulation, measured by political donations and voting intentions. A replication of the experiment in the United Kingdom yields similar results. Our estimates reject a crowding-out effect, suggesting instead a modest crowding-in effect of green investing on political support for green policies.

We develop a model-free measure of the variance premium by constructing option portfolios whose returns are highly correlated with realized stock variance. This effectively decomposes returns into realized variance minus implied variance. We apply this decomposition to document a novel quarterly cross-sectional continuation pattern in both realized variance and implied variance of individual stocks. Implied variance underanticipates the seasonality of realized variance, so options that performed well at quarterly lags continue to earn high returns in the future. Quarterly periodicity in realized stock variance only occurs on days with analyst earning revisions, suggesting an informational channel for this pattern.

This study examines whether mutual fund managers generate alpha through thematic investment strategies that select stocks poised to benefit from specific themes. Using textual analysis of 10-K filings, we identify stocks’ thematic exposures and construct each fund’s thematic concentration index (TCI) from its holdings. High-TCI funds significantly outperform, with a top-minus-bottom decile spread of 4.26% in annualized four-factor alpha. Managers’ thematic expertise is related to their undergraduate field of study. Outperformance arises from superior stock selection rather than theme-related timing, with an informational advantage on firm earnings, particularly in stocks exposed to themes related to managers’ undergraduate training.