Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We study privatization and corporate ownership in transportation infrastructure, focusing on global airports. Privatization in general does not improve performance. However, private equity (PE) ownership has strong and persistent positive effects on efficiency, volume, and quality, with positive externalities for the local economy. We address selection using close auctions where PE and non-PE firms bid. PE funds expand physical capacity and encourage larger planes while adding low-cost carriers and international routes. They are especially effective in countries with more corruption or state-owned flag carriers. In contrast, the poorer performance of non-PE acquirers may reflect private benefits and historical state ties.

Abstract We show that banks cross-sell future deposits and loans to existing household depositors. A bank is 20-percentage-points more likely to sell a loan to an existing depositor than to an otherwise comparable household. Existing depositors pay a premium when borrowing, and we find no indication that banks obtain an informational advantage on such borrowers, suggesting that the cross-selling is driven more by demand than by supply complementarities. These demand complementarities are in turn driven more by stickiness rather than by unobserved persistent preferences. Finally, banks internalize future cross-selling potential when setting deposit rates. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online

Abstract A key question for studying business dynamism is whether the costs of regulatory compliance fall homogeneously on small and large businesses. Using comprehensive establishment-level occupational microdata and occupation task information, we quantify a firm’s compliance costs as the share of wage bill for performing regulatory compliance tasks (RegIndex). We reveal an inverted-U relationship between firms’ RegIndex and their size: On average, RegIndex for mid-sized firms with around 500 employees is about 47% greater than that of the smallest firms and 18% greater than that of the largest firms. We further develop a shift-share methodology to disentangle the influence of regulatory requirements and enforcement on driving firms’ compliance costs.

Abstract We study the interaction between firms, which can invest in green technologies, and a government, which can impose emission caps but has limited commitment power. Investment in green technologies generates innovation spillovers, reducing the cost of further investments. Spillovers generate intertemporal strategic complementarities between firms and government, and equilibrium multiplicity. In a “green equilibrium”, firms, anticipating caps, invest in green technologies, which reduces the cost of further investment, making the government willing to cap emissions. In a “brown equilibrium”, firms, anticipating no caps, don’t invest, so green technologies remain costly and the government gives up on emission caps.

Abstract We estimate price elasticities of housing supply for U.S. cities by examining the impact of foreign purchases on housing prices and quantities. After other countries introduced foreign-buyer taxes beginning in 2011, both house prices and quantities increased more in locations with high foreign-born populations. An increase in global capital inflows, instrumented with tax policy changes scaled by immigrant exposure, increased prices and quantities over 2011–2018. We combine these estimates to construct new local supply elasticities, which average 0.26 and range from 0.06 to 0.9. Compared to prior estimates, our elasticities are more inelastic and change cities’ relative rankings.

Abstract This paper investigates the impact of introducing junior unsecured loans (i.e., FinTech loans) into the small business lending market. Using French administrative data, we find that firms experience a 13% increase in bank credit after receiving a FinTech loan. We use propensity score matching procedures and a shift-share instrument to account for credit demand. The credit increase only occurs when FinTech borrowers invest in new assets, and Fintech borrowers are subsequently more likely to pledge collateral to banks. This suggests that firms use FinTech loans to acquire assets that they then pledge to banks, thereby increasing total borrowing capacity.

Abstract We extract information about future economic conditions from firms’ cross-border merger and acquisition announcements, and show it predicts changes in relative economic growth rates and foreign exchange rate returns. We find the predictability is driven by the acquisition decisions of domestic firms, which signal turning points in local economic growth. The findings are motivated by a simple model of exchange rate determination with heterogeneous expectations and support the theorized relationship between foreign exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. The results provide new tools for policy makers seeking to predict economic activity and offer global investors a novel source of portfolio diversification.

Abstract Liquidity provision is often attributed to debt-issuing intermediaries like banks. We develop a unified theoretical framework and empirically show that mutual funds issuing demandable equity also provide an economically significant amount of liquidity by insuring against idiosyncratic liquidity shocks. Quantitatively, bond funds provide 12.5% of the liquidity that banks provide per dollar. Our model further shows that when equity values incorporate the liquidation cost from redemptions, as in swing pricing, liquidity provision is not necessarily reduced. This is because swing pricing may increase funds’ capacity for holding illiquid assets without inducing panic runs.

Abstract We study the valuation of state-issued tax-exempt municipal bonds and find that there are significant convenience premia in their prices. These premia parallel those identified in Treasury markets. We find evidence that these premia are tax related. Specifically, the premia are related to measures of tax and fiscal uncertainty, forecast flows into state municipal bond funds, and are directly linked to outmigration from high-tax to low-tax states and to other measures of tax aversion such as IRA and retirement plan contributions. These results suggest that investors are willing to pay a substantial premium to avoid taxes.

Abstract Our paper examines analyst reports and online stock opinion articles which recommend buying stocks that, based on the literature, trade at high prices and earn low future returns (“short-leg securities”). Using a textual analysis, we test whether the justifications primarily (1) emphasize safe-haven qualities, (2) indicate exuberance, or (3) highlight lottery-like features. Our results strongly point to (3). We subsequently validate our text-based inferences through a survey of institutional and retail investors with long positions in short-leg securities. Overall, perceived upside potential appears to play a material role in driving investor demand for stocks in the short legs of anomalies.